FREE UFC NUMBERED EVENT!!! I do not know what good karma I racked up for Dana to decide to make this event free in the US (if you have ESPN+), but I will thank all my Gods and deities. This card is actually so damn good, I can’t believe I don’t have to find an illegal stream to watch it. We have 2 title fights (despite what Aljo might say), a potential top 5 contender lightweight fight, THE CHIMAEV TRAIN, and a light heavyweight banger. The issue is, the lines for this card are absolutely fucking disgusting. There are only 3 fights with the favorite under -200, with most of them being even steeper. I hate how many favorites I picked on the main card, so much so that I forced myself to pick Volkan out of desperation for a dog. This for sure breaks my record for the most prop lines I have taken in a single event, and you know what? I feel like I might go undefeated. That being said, with extreme confidence, let’s get into these picks.

Main Card

Jan Błachowicz vs. Glover Teixeira Light Heavyweight Championship Bout

This might be the most painful fight ever for longtime UFC fans. I saw some douchebag MMA reporter say if this was a Bellator fight no one would watch and everyone would roast it. These guys have been beating ELITE UFC competition for the past few years on the biggest stage in combat sports. Obviously if these guys got the 2 wins it takes to get a Bellator title shot no one would give a flying fuck. Sorry that really rustled my feathers today, I’ll digress and break this down. Jan reinvented himself since his loss to Thiago Santos. He learned how to pace himself, grapple, and find his shots to land that oh so brutal Polish Power. He beat one of the best 185ers of all time, a man who nearly beat Bones Jones (arguably did), one of the best wrestlers in 205 entirely who also had beaten him previously, and 2 top 5 185ers prior. This may not look that special, but there hasn’t been anyone put in front of him lately to even give him trouble. 

Glover is a lot of the same, he has won 5 in a row against some really good 205 talent. A guy who nearly beat Bones Jones, a man who Bones beat the breaks off of, and 3 bottom dwellers. While this is nearly as impressive as Jan’s recent feats, he has been in trouble way more often. If Glover had a ref with a quicker trigger he likely would have lost to Anthony Smith and a couple of these other guys. Glover has every tool to pull off a huge upset here, but I think Jan is too smart and too talented to play to Glover’s strengths and his power will turn off the lights. Smart money is on Jan by TKO.

Jan Blachowicz by 2nd Round TKO (Prop TKO Line) +100 2 units

Petr Yan vs. Cory Sandhagen Bantamweight “Interim” Championship Bout

This was probably the closest I got to taking an underdog in these top 5 fights, but my gut wouldn’t allow it. Seeing what Yan has done to Aljo, Aldo, Rivera, and Faber; I just don’t see a way anyone could compete with him on the feet. Sandhagen looked phenomenal against Dillashaw even though he lost based on pressure. He is rangy and has elite striking while going backwards. He killed Frankie Edgar and Marlon Moraes, and one of the coolest armbar escapes I have ever seen. All of that being said, I do not see a world where anyone can be backing up against Petr Yan and win. I see his game plan being pretty similar to his plan against Dillashaw, if that is the case Yan will crush him, to a devastating extent. I can see a world where Sandhagen somehow pulls off an upset, but more than likely he is going to get piled on with strikes until he just can’t continue anymore.

Petr Yan by 4th Round TKO (Prop TKO Line) +225 1 unit

Islam Makhachev vs. Dan Hooker Lightweight Bout

Does anyone think Dan Hooker can win this fight? Like I am going to write about it, and I understand he can win this fight, but does anyone truly think he will without some crazy over rationalization? Islam looks like Khabib with better standup. Is his wrestling as dominant as Khabibs? No, he is able to hold you down for a while and that’s pretty much it. Khabib was like that for a long time as well, before he managed to start mauling guys on the ground and just embarrassing them. Now Dan Hooker is coming off a pretty solid win over Nasrat, but that’s following 2 losses to Michael Chandler, and Dustin Poirier. Those guys are definitely top of the division, but they stand with you for the most part (Chandler can wrestle but never does). Islam is going to get Hooker to the ground and make him fight for his life just to stand up. This is the definition of a puncher’s chance for Hooker.

Islam Makhachev by Decision (Prop Line) -110 1 unit

Alexander Volkov vs. Marcin Tybura Heavyweight Bout

I will say it every time he fights, I fucking hate Marcin Tybura. He holds you against the cage until he finds a trip and just lays on you. Well I guess recently he has at least learned a little ground and pound, but it is such a shitty product to watch. I pick against him pretty much every single fight. This may be biased to some, but to me it is standing up against the worst parts of MMA. Alexander Volkov should be a far better fighter and not get stuck against the cage and in grappling situations that lesser fighters have been caught in. People are a little down on Volkov after Gane picked him apart but Gane has done that to literally everyone he’s faced. Volkov is a different level of fighter and he will show everyone Tybura should stay with the losers at the bottom of the division.

Alexander Volkov by 3rd Round TKO (Prop TKO Line) +130 1 unit

Li Jingliang vs. Khamzat Chimaev Welterweight Bout

KHAMZAT IS BACK. Let’s just pretend the whole weigh-in fiasco didn’t happen and everything has gone smoothly up until this point. COVID absolutely ravaged this man, almost like all of the soul’s he had taken combined together to weaken his immune system so he could not train anymore. But it didn’t last, thank heavens. Now Khamzat is here to absolutely steamroll another helpless victim. Li Jingliang is a very solid fighter and will be a great addition to Borz’s resume. I don’t even want to write about what Li has done in the past because this man is about to get massacred in front of our very eyes. I am so confident in a mauling here that I nearly took Khamzat -190 just to finish it, instead I am taking + line hoping it happens to be a TKO instead of a sub and I am not too confident in that.

Khamzat Chimaev by 1st Round TKO (Prop TKO Line) +130 1 unit

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Volkan Oezdemir Light Heavyweight Bout

This one might be silly. These guys are just a couple of heavy handed 205ers looking to make the jump into top of the division. Magomed is a pretty big favorite here coming off 6 (I am counting both Ion fights) wins against solid competition, and Volkan losing 4 out of his last 6. The thing is, all of the guys Volkan lost to are far better than anyone Magomed beat. Ok maybe not Anthony Smith but at the time of the fight I think he was! If these guys are just going to stand and exchange I will take Volkan +270 every single time, the man has the ability to put people to sleep with little effort and Magomed just doesn’t have enough value with a slightly better ability to do the same.

Volkan Oezdemir by 1st Round TKO +270 1 unit


Amanda Ribas vs. Virna Jandiroba Strawweight Bout

Amanda Ribas by Decision -165 2 units

Ricardo Ramos vs. Zubaira Tukhugov Featherweight Bout

Zubaira Tukhogov by Decision -170 2 units

Albert Duraev vs. Roman Kopylov Middleweight Bout

Roman Kopylov by 2nd Round TKO +270 1 unit

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Benoît St. Denis Welterweight Bout

Benoit St. Denis by 1st Round Submission +190 1 unit

Michał Oleksiejczuk vs. Shamil Gamzatov Light Heavyweight Bout

Shamil Gamzatov by Decision -120 1 unit

Makwan Amirkhani vs. Lerone Murphy Featherweight Bout

Lerone Murphy By Decision (Prop Line) +150 1 unit

Hu Yaozong vs. Andre Petroski Middleweight Bout

Hu Yaozong by 2nd Round TKO +175 1 unit

Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Allan Nascimento Flyweight Bout

Tagir Ulanbekov by Decision (Prop Line) -105 1 unit

DraftKings Lineup:

I am feeling good going into this card, these picks were heavily researched other than my hatred of Marcin Tybura. I have been pretty bad lately about getting the motivation to blog for some of the shitty cards that Dana has been putting together lately, but him giving us this bad boy for free, I had to put some real elbow grease into this. Stay tuned in case any of these change by fight time, likely will get drunk towards the main event so the twitter account might get slightly off the rails and some crazy positions may be placed. Other than that, be smart with your units and gamble responsibly. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!