VIOLENCE! I have returned from a few weeks off for this lovely PPV filled with killers and winning bets. There is a strange confidence I am feeling from this card, these picks are just flowing through my veins. So many close lines, and some really solid method of victory lines. Brian Ortega is going to beat Volkanovski so we can get Max back to the top. Valentina is going to catch a body for the millionth time in her career. Nick Diaz is back and I am just along for the ride. Fuck Curtis Blaydes, all my homies hate Curtis Blaydes. Andrade is the best flyweight not named Valentina. Even the prelims have a lot to offer for some fat cash. Already chasing some bad football bets so these need to take me out of the gutter. Enough of the chit chat, let’s get into these picks:
Main Card
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Brian Ortega Featherweight Championship Bout
I am going to level with you. This pick is far more about what I want/need to happen rather than picking intelligently. Volkanovski was able to slow down Max’s striking with some grappling and leg kicks. Ortega will happily grapple and try to grab those legs on the kicks. Ortega has been reborn after Holloway baptized him, he is ready to come in and beat the breaks off of Volkanovski so he can lose gracefully to Max. Be a fun person and ride Ortega on this one (don’t put too much though).
Brian Ortega by 4th Round Submission +155 1 unit
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Lauren Murphy Flyweight Championship Bout
What can you even say at this point? Valentina Shevchenko is a fucking monster. She has not had a close fight since she moved to 125. She arguably beat the 135/145 champion in their last bout in Nunes. Every woman in her way claims they have something different that Valentina hasn’t seen yet, but they are oh so wrong. Valentina will beat you at your own game and laugh at our corpse. You are a good grappler? She is going to out grapple you. You are a good striker? She is going to out strike you. You are a good dancer? She will dance on your mother fucking grave. Take Valentina by TKO/KO/DQ or lose money.
Valentina Shevchenko by 2nd Round TKO (Prop TKO Line) -120 2 units
Nick Diaz vs. Robbie Lawler Middleweight Bout
The return of Nick Diaz is upon us and he has already dictated the weight class, and has mentioned he hates fighting. Feels like 2011 again. Last time these 2 fought, I was 9 years old. There is no way to predict this one, Nick hasn’t fought in 6 years and Robbie has been shit in the last 4 years. I am just going to ride with Nick because it is the way more fun outcome. Nick vs Usman by the end of 2022.
Nick Diaz by Decision +138 1 unit
Curtis Blaydes vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik Heavyweight Bout
Curtis Blaydes fucking sucks. I hate watching him fight so much. He added the ground and pound to the repertoire, but it is still so frustrating to watch someone just trying to lay on their opponent and pray they don’t have enough energy to knock him out late in the fight. Jair is going to find Curtis’ chin before it is too late and send him to the shadow realm. This will be a highlight reel finish that will be talked about for the next few decades. Don’t be on the wrong side of history.
Jair Rozenstruik by 1st Round TKO +280 1 unit
Jéssica Andrade vs. Cynthia Calvillo Flyweight Bout
This is a very tough one to pick. I give Andrade the edge, she has the better striking and I do not believe there is a big enough gap in the grappling to give Cynthia the win. On top of all of that, I do not see a world where this is finished before the judges. Take the prop and take that fat stack of cash.
Jessica Andrade by Decision (Prop Line) +140 2 units
Prelims
Marlon Moraes vs. Merab Dvalishvili Bantamweight Weight
Merab is so much better than Marlon, he is going to wrestlefuck him into oblivion. I wish I were able to bet on his over on takedowns because it will be north of 8. The issue with Merab is that he cannot finish a fight, so he will just win 30-24 and win me so much goddamn money I won’t know what to do with myself.
Merab Dvaalishvili by Decision (Prop Line) +100 2 units
Dan Hooker vs. Nasrat Haqparast Lightweight bout
This is by far and away the fight of the night. Two of the best strikers in the division going to war for our enjoyment. Dan Hooker has every reason to be the favorite in this one, having faced much better competition and being a fight or 2 away from a title shot. That being said, Nasrat has looked dominant in his wins and may have better striking when put to the task. Not super confident in this pick but the fight will be fun no matter what.
Nasrat Haqparast by Decision +135 1 unit
Shamil Abdurakhimov vs. Chris Daukaus Heavyweight Bout
Chris Daukaus by 2nd Round TKO (Prop TKO Line) +110 2 units
Roxanne Modafferi vs. Taila Santos Flyweight Bout
Talia Santos by Decision (Prop Line) -165 2 units
Early Prelims
Uroš Medić vs. Jalin Turner Lightweight Bout
Uros Medic by 1st Round TKO -116 1 unit
Cody Brundage vs. Nick Maximov Middleweight Bout
Nick Maximov by 2nd Round Submission -116 1 unit
Matthew Semelsberger vs. Martin Sano Jr. Welterweight Bout
Matthew Semelsberger by 1st Round TKO (Prop TKO Line) -135 1 unit
Jonathan Pearce vs. Omar Morales Featherweight Bout
Omar Morales by Decision -150 2 units
DraftKings Lineup:
This is one of the best boards I have given out. I stare at these picks and I feel like I already watched this card play out. This might be the card where I win the 75k haymaker on DraftKings, everything feels so right. That being said I don’t owe anyone anything and I am not liable if these positions completely flop and we all go bankrupt. That is all I have for UFC 266, and as always, may luck be your lady tonight!