We are at the 2nd PPV of the year and man is this a much better card. I feel like it was just yesterday when I was bitching and moaning about Pennington having a co-main and Magny leading up to that. Now we have only 1 title shot but it is a great one, with 4 really interesting matchups leading up to it. Am I just being sexist and enjoying this card more because it’s all dudes on the main? I don’t think so, but I also don’t really care. I am still excited for Lemos Dern as the featured prelim. Can’t wait for this Volk Topuria nonsense to be over (please Volk for the love of all things holy take this man out, Whittaker vs Costa should be pure entertainment whichever way it shakes out, Garry steps out of the cuck chair for this one to take on Geoff Neal, Merab vs Cejudo will either be a snoozer or Cejudo will win, and 2 rising stars in Anthony Hernandez and Roman Kopylov kick off the PPV in what should be a fun clash in styles. My issue with this card is that I love nearly all of the favorites, kind of forced one dog in there so I didn’t feel too square but I am even nervous about that one. It’s weird too because for DFS all of the prices are pretty low even for most of the favorites, hopefully I can take advantage there. Well enough rambling, let’s get into these picks.
Main Card
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria Featherweight Championship Bout
Old Man Volk returns to featherweight to defend his belt against one of the most unlikable challengers in Ilia Topuria. I will never understand the arrogant challenger role, I feel like we have only seen it work for McGregorand Ilia is just trying to copy that. The dude is giving one of the greatest fighters of all time bulletin board material. Ilia probably saw the one clip of Volk against Ortega and thinks this will be a breeze. We are going to see Volk with a strength and gas advantage through this whole fight. This weight cut definitely hurts Ilia way more than Volk. If Ilia can’t do it in the early rounds this fight is all but over. I am truly hoping to see a ragdolling for 25 minutes. Make this dude seem like he doesn’t even belong in the promotion. Then give Yair, Ortega, or Max another title shot to make him even more pissed.
Alexander Volkanovski by Decision -122 2 units
Robert Whittaker vs. Paulo Costa Middleweight Bout
This one was a pretty tough pick. Whittaker is a 2-1 favorite which feels a little much after he just got demolished by DDP. We have no idea if Whittaker is about to take a Weidman/Ferguson level skid or if he will bounce back like he did after the 1st loss to Izzy. Costa on the other hand looked like such a more well rounded fighter when he went up against Rockhold. The issue is that Rockhold isn’t near the level of Whittaker anymore and that fight was a year and a half ago. I am really just picking this fight based off of the best version I have seen of both guys. In that case, I see this one going to Whittaker but it goes to the judges.
Robert Whittaker by Decision (Prop win in round 3 or decision) -110 1 unit
Geoff Neal vs. Ian Machado Garry Welterweight Bout
Every fiber of my being wanted me to take Neal in this one after the mental battering Garry has gone through over the past few months. But now I see myself turned around on Garry. Sure he is annoying as fuck with his cameras and thinking he is the 2nd coming, but the dude doesn’t deserve half the flack he is getting for being a cuck. Some dudes are just into that stuff, let him be. Neal has the heavier hands in this one but that is pretty much the only column he is leading in. If Garry fights smart and doesn’t let his emotions get to him, he should be able to pick Neal apart until it’s too much for him and the fight is stopped.
Ian Garry by 3rd Round TKO (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -115 1 unit
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Henry Cejudo Bantamweight Bout
Henry Cejudo is an olympic gold medal winning wrestler and former 2 time UFC champion. Triple C as he used to call himself. He had an incredibly close fight with Aljo that many thought he won. He fake fired his coach and is locked in for his last chance to seek gold. Unfortunately for him, he is up against an actual robot in Merab. Most times you fight a wrestler you just stuff a few takedowns, then they gas out and you can piece them up. That doesn’t work against Merab. He will spam takedowns over and over again, almost using them like a jab. It doesn’t look pretty and it must be frustrating, but it is just how it goes. Cejudo will look good early but it will just start to pile on and kill his confidence until the final bell. Merab wins.
Merab Dvalishvili by Decision (Prop Line) -165 1 unit
Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov Middleweight Bout
This one may be a little of a reach for me to get an underdog on my sheet. Roman Kopylov has looked great in his last 4, absolutely battering his opponents. He doesn’t have show stopping power but he is accurate and composed and the strikes pile up until you go to sleep or quit. Anthony Hernandez has ok striking but where he gets you is his relentless grappling. Kopylov stuffed 5 takedowns in his last bout which makes me believe he can stop enough to do some damage on Hernandez to the point where the takedowns have no juice and are forced. This is really the only dog I liked other than considering Cejudo.
Roman Kopylov by 2nd Round TKO +195 1 unit
Prelims
Amanda Lemos vs. Mackenzie Dern Strawweight Bout
Amanda Lemos by Decision -130 1 unit
Marcos Rogério de Lima vs. Junior Tafa Heavyweight Bout
Marcos Rogerio de Lima by 1st Round Submission (Prop Finish Line) -150 2 units
Rinya Nakamura vs. Carlos Vera Bantamweight Bout
Rinya Nakamura by 1st Round TKO (Prop win in rounds 1-2) -135 1 unit
Zhang Mingyang vs. Brendson Ribeiro Light Heavyweight Bout
Zhang Mingyang by 1st Round TKO -130 1 unit
Early Prelims
Josh Quinlan vs. Danny Barlow Welterweight Bout
Danny Barlow by Decision (SGP o .5 Rds) -150 1 unit
Oban Elliott vs. Val Woodburn Welterweight Bout
Oban Elliot by 3rd Round Submission (SGP o 1.5 Rds) +100 2 units
Andrea Lee vs. Miranda Maverick Flyweight Bout
Miranda Maverick by Decision (Prop win in Round 3 or Decision) -110 2 units
Draftkings Lineup:
That is all I have for you this beautiful evening of fights. I really am excited for this card, may even half my unit so I can just enjoy the show without the gut punch of losses. Who am I kidding, no shot I do that. Realistically I am going to parlay a ton of these favorites and just pray for the best. Remember to stick to your units and bet responsibly (do as I say not as I do). As always, may luck be your lady tonight.