Violence has arrived! This is one of the best cards in a very long time, potentially rivaling the UFC 300 card we have next month. So many fights that can shuffle weight classes up and potentially lead to title shots, 1 of them even being on the prelims (I think with a dominant win Almeida is knocking on the door of a #1 contender fight). The main card delivers a title fight rematch between Suga Sean and Chito Vera, a lightweight banger and potential #2 contender fight with Poirier and Saint Denis, a welterweight banger with Kevin Holland and the UFC newcomer/legend Michael Venom Page, a big test for Jack Della Maddalena in Gilbert Burns, and a #2 contender fight between Petr Yan and Song Yadong (as long as Aljo stays at 145). I absolutely can not wait for this one, probably the best prelims we have ever had as well with multiple big names peppered throughout. Alright, enough rambling, let’s get into these picks.
Main Card
Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera Bantamweight Championship Bout
I didn’t really contemplate this one too hard. I think Chito is a very good fighter, but he is not great. That first matchup they had was really strange. Sean hurt his foot, and kinda just had to quit in the first. I can’t imagine this going the same way. Sean has looked incredible on this stretch, showing great wrestling defense while also displaying his devastating striking. Chito on the other hand is coming off 1 win over a dude who is fighting at 8 PM which should say enough. Cory Sandhagen, Merab, Aljo, hell even Song Yadong are far more deserving of this shot than Chito. Does all of this just mean I am underestimating him? Yeah probably, but after losing a bet earlier this week because a dude stepped on glass I stopped caring about what unlikely things can happen.
Sean O’Malley by Decision (SGP o 2.5 Rds) -125 1 unit
Dustin Poirier vs. Benoît Saint Denis Lightweight Bout
I will always and forever be a Dustin Poirier fan. In his last fight I liked him and Gaethje so much that I just took the over instead of a side so I can cheer for both. It still lost. Benoit Saint Denis has been on a warpath in the UFC, rattling off 5 straight finishes after dropping his UFC debut. His best win was probably over Ismael Bonfim, who made everyone before him look like tissue paper. He has a very bright future in the UFC and I can definitely see him getting a title shot eventually. Unfortunately for him it’ll be in like 5 more fights after he climbs back from the mauling he is about to endure. Dustin is going to take him to the depths of hell and make it look easy. I need a Dustin win like I need air to breathe,
Dustin Poirier by Decision +185 1 unit
Kevin Holland vs. Michael Page Welterweight Bout
Holy shit am I excited for this fight. I have been a Venom Page fan for so long, I can’t even wrap my brain around him being in the UFC. I have always like Kevin Holland because it felt like I was watching a version of Venom that likes to fight every couple of months. Now that I get to see these guys head to head I don’t know how to feel. I really don’t see a way Holland bests him on the feet unless he somehow pulls off a Douglas Lima style KO. He should have a grappling advantage but Page’s defense is pretty solid, nearly pulling off an upset over Storley. I see a striking extravaganza that leads to Venom getting his hand raised.
Michael Page by 2nd Round TKO +115 1 unit
Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena Welterweight Bout
Another set of beautiful matchmaking from the UFC here. I got to see Gilbert get wrestlefucked into oblivion in person in his last bout, of course disclosing he was injured after the fight which just means I threw my bet away from the get go. Now he returns against JDM who is coming off 2 controversial split decision victories (he lost to Holland, cmon). Both these dudes need this one to get into contender conversations. This is probably Gilbert’s last chance since the dude is 37, while JDM is 10 years younger, he will have plenty of opportunities. As I am writing this I see that my logic of just taking the older dude who is going for the title 1 last time is probably not the wisest, but I see Gilbert manhandling JDM everywhere.
Gilbert Burns by 1st Round Submission +130 1 unit
Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong Bantamweight Bout
Is Song Yadong actually elite? I have been on the side of no for his last couple and he has won both to shut me up. There are many dudes who have been in the same boat, Sean Strickland, Belal Muhammed, Ricky Simon, Casey Kenney, etc. and they always win when I bet against them. Eventually I end up taking them and they lose, as do most fighters when I bet on them (I will never bet on Belal). Fortunately for Song, I am still going against him. I feel like Vegas has forgotten how good Yan was. He had tough split decision losses to Aljo and Suga, then got wrestlefucked by Merab. Song ain’t any of those dudes, this will be a piecing up for the ages. Love Petr here.
Petr Yan by Decision -130 2 units
Prelims
Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida Heavyweight Bout
Jailton Almeida by 1st Round Submission -120
Katlyn Cerminara vs. Maycee Barber Flyweight Bout
Maycee Barber by Decision (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -130 1 unit
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael dos Anjos Lightweight Bout
Rafael dos Anjos by Decision +330 1 unit
Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips Bantamweight Bout
Kyler Phillips by Decision (Win in Rd 3 or Dec) -150 2 units
Early Prelims
Ion Cuțelaba vs. Philipe Lins Light Heavyweight Bout
Ion Cutelaba by 1st Round TKO -142 2 units
Michel Pereira vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk Middleweight Bout
Michel Pereira by 2nd Round TKO -150 1 unit
Robelis Despaigne vs. Josh Parisian Heavyweight Bout
Robelis Despaigne by 1st Round KO (Prop TKO/KO Rd 1) -175 1 unit
C.J. Vergara vs. Assu Almabayev Flyweight Bout
Assu Almabayev by 2nd Round Submission (Prop Finish Line) -140 1 unit
Joanne Wood vs. Maryna Moroz Flyweight Bout
Maryna Moroz by Decision (Prop Line) +100 1 unit
DraftKings Lineup:
That is all I have for you on this day of violence. I am headed out to my Fiance’s dad’s birthday dinner and will miss the early prelims, which blows, but should be able to tune in once the regular prelims start. I really can’t wait for this card, this is when Dana can overcharge me to watch, not when the main event is a boring chick fight. Remember to gamble responsibly and stick to your units. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!