After much time off from writing I am back and ready to win some fat stacks. Got engaged a few weeks ago, a couple of weeks visiting my old college and my Fiance’s old college, shit cards, and other family business has led me to a card in my home city, begging me to win some money. I unfortunately was not able to secure tickets to this event due to the fact that MSG charges a billion dollars to sit as far away from the cage as the venue allows so I will have to watch from the comfort of my own home, but the vibes will travel. This card was way more exciting a few weeks ago, but I am pretty content with the replacement. Jiri vs Pereira taking the Main spot should’ve happened anyway since it’ll actually be competitive, Pavlovich vs Aspinall is the biggest coin toss of a fight I have seen since Justin vs Dustin II, Mackenzie Dern is hot, Steamrolla Frevola returns after 3 upset wins in a row against a very good Saint-Denis, Lopes Sabatini will be a lot of grappling that could either be interesting or boring. I for one am hype for this card because it will be the first I have been able to watch in full in so long. Enough of my blabbering, let’s get into these picks.
Jiří Procházka vs. Alex Pereira Light Heavyweight Championship Bout
Man this fight is finally here. Somehow Dana has paved the perfect path for Pereira twice now. Got him to the Middleweight title shot in like 4 fights, now he is at the Light Heavyweight title after 1 bout in the weight class. This is Jiri’s first fight since his war with Teixiera that had one of the craziest endings I’ve seen in a title fight outside of Edwards Usman II. I went back and forth on this one a lot, Pereira hasn’t fought someone as batshit crazy as Jiri before. Most fighters Pereira has faced fear his hands a bit and fight a bit more cautiously. We will not see that here, Jiri is going to push forward and try to set the pace with his weird Karate style. Unfortunately for Jiri, I do not think that works. Pereira is going to land way too many strikes for Jiri to survive and this will be a vicious finish that creates a perfect setup for the Israel trilogy.
Alex Pereira by 3rd Round TKO -120 1 unit
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall Heavyweight Interim Championship Bout
How the fuck do you pick someone in this fight? These dudes have like 10 minutes of film total and they pretty much dominate in all of it but 1 fight each. Both of them have very good wins over strong competition. I decided to go with Aspinall here because he just seems like he has a better tank even though I doubt that matters. I see him staying on the outside until something opens up and touches Pavlovich’s chin. I don’t know, I am not confident in this one but needed a side.
Tom Aspinall by 1st Round TKO -110 1 unit
Mackenzie Dern vs. Jéssica Andrade Strawweight Bout
Is Mackenzie Dern hot? Yes. Is she a top fighter at strawweight? Maybe. At this point, she hasn’t wowed me with her fighting yet. She has some questionable decisions under her belt and often struggles if she can’t get the takedown. Her last fight she looked like a new woman absolutely dominating Angie Hill, but she also was fighting a mid tier fighter. Andrade is a huge step up in competition and that will be evident early when she starts stuffing takedowns and landing bombs. Also like Andrade here with the point spread +3.5 +115.
Jessica Andrade by Decision +180 1 unit
Matt Frevola vs. Benoît Saint-Denis Lightweight Bout
I hate myself. For 3 fights in a row now I have bet against Long Island’s finest in Matt Frevola and he has made me a fool each time. I will not be made a fool of again. Saint-Denis is the type of guy who looks like he would drop a fight to the most standard looking dude of all time. Is Frevola better anywhere in the octagon? No. But since when has that mattered? He has beaten 2 undefeated fighters in his last 3 by destruction, he will now take down another rising contender.
Matt Frevola by 3rd Round TKO +185 1 unit
Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini Featherweight Bout
Diego Lopes is a wild card with great grappling off his back and pretty good striking. He has no takedown defense because he is down to just throw up some leg triangles and armbars until he can either get up or get the submission. Sabatini on the other hand is one of the best grapplers in the division. He had been dominating competition until he got caught with a knee while going for a takedown against Damon Jackson. People always forget how good dudes are when they get clipped like that. I expect absolute domination from the top here with all sub attempts foiled and a pretty easy cash here.
Pat Sabatini by Decision -120 1 unit
Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa Flyweight Bout
Steve Erceg by Decision (Parlay over 1.5 Rds) +105 1 unit
Tabatha Ricci vs. Loopy Godinez Strawweight Bout
Tabatha Ricci by Decision +154 1 unit
Mateusz Rębecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts Lightweight Bout
Mateusz Rebecki by 3rd Round Submission (Parlay over 1.5 Rds) +105 1 unit
Nazim Sadykhov vs. Viacheslav Borshchev Lightweight Bout
Nazim Sadykhov by 1st Round Submission -148 2 units
Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen Lightweight Bout
Mark Madsen by Decision +170 1 unit
John Castañeda vs. Kang Kyung-ho Bantamweight Bout
John Castaneda by Decision +110 1 unit
Joshua Van vs. Kevin Borjas Flyweight Bout
Joshua Van by Decision (Parlay over 1.5 Rds) -110 1 unit
Dennis Buzukja vs. Jamall Emmers Featherweight Bout
Dennis Buzukja by Decision +200 1 unit
That is all I have for this evening of fights. Follow on twitter in case I put together some parlays instead of doing my method of victory bets. I have been burned both ways lately so I will let the booze decide which way I lean. I think there are some pretty good bets on this card and we can take good advantage of close lines. Remember to stick to your units and gamble responsibly. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!