On this joyous day where most of my friends are out of town and my girlfriend has family plans, I get to sit at home and watch the entire card with my entire wallet. I haven’t seen a day like this in ages, usually I am out and about watching on my phone trying to get tweets in when no one is looking and twisting arms for people to tail my positions. I currently have a lot of money tied up on Ben Askren to win a fucking boxing match so if these picks don’t go well early I may just have to bet in spirit.
This card isn’t really anything special, really good main event then no fight with anyone near title contention. Jeremy Stephens is looking to stay employed since McGregor has absolutely ruined his career at a presser. Andrei Arlovski is looking to stay employed after getting destroyed by a real fighter. Jessica Penne should no longer be employed as a 38 year old fighter who loses every fight. That being said this is the most underdogs I have ever liked on a card. There are a lot of opportunities to win money here so let’s get into it.
Main Card
Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum Middleweight Bout
This is going to be a war. Kelvin Gastelum has been dreaming for a fight like this. Someone who is gonna stay in the middle of the octagon and bang. Smaller cage at the Apex, Kelvin is a smaller 185er, this should be everything he needs to jump to the top. The only issue is, he is facing the only fighter with better boxing than he has (Izzy is a better striker than both but Bobby is the best pure boxer). Bobby Knuckles has looked like he looked in every 185 fight minus 1 as of late. He is on his path to get another shot and take back what he so embarrassingly lost. People are misunderstanding Robert’s super nice demeanor for not having a desire for a title shot, that is going to be destroyed tonight when you see an absolute clinic.
Bobby Knuckles by Decision +125 (Prop Line) 1 unit
Jeremy Stephens vs. Drakkar Klose Lightweight Bout
One of the most unfortunate things in MMA is how bad Jeremy Stephens has been. He claims to have the most power at 145 but hasn’t won a fight in 3 years. He just doesn’t have the tools anymore to win a fight unless it is a knockout. If Drakkar is staying awake he is winning this fight. Lil’ heathen doesn’t have what it takes to win a decision and he never really has. Very one dimensional and Drakkar has only lost to top guys. Give me Drakkar in a Klose decision.
Drakkar Klose by Decision +105 1 unit
Andrei Arlovski vs. Chase Sherman Heavyweight Bout
Man did it hurt picking Aspinall over Andrei in his last bout, but everyone knew that was gonna happen. Now Andrei is back on a pretty quick turnaround looking to get his momentum back. He has looked like a new man lately, learning how to fight at a distance and pick his strikes without just running in like a bull. Chase Sherman on the other hand just worked his way back to the UFC after BKFC and is coming off a nice TKO win. The thing is, I have never thought the Vanilla Gorilla has been anything special. Looks like a create a character from a UFC video game and just has no special skillset that every heavyweight doesn’t have. If he isn’t landing a KO shot in a flurry, Arlovski picks him apart.
Andrei Arlovski by 2nd Round TKO -120 1 unit
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Jacob Malkoun Middleweight Bout
Abdul has had a rough go of it in his last 2 bouts. He has looked great early with so much power, but if he doesn’t get a KO in the first couple minutes it looks like it’s all over for him. Here I just couldn’t take a guy -300 on this kind of a skid and moving up a weight class. Malkoun is young and inexperienced, he should grow a lot from his last bout and is at a phenomenal gym. The blueprint of the beating Alhassan is out there and if he can execute he should be able to have a solid chance at taking this one.
Jacob Malkoun by Decision +250 .5 unit
Luis Peña vs. Alexander Munoz Lightweight Bout
Violent Bob Ross is a very fun follow, fun guy, and fun to watch. The issue is he is a giant twig. He is fighting against an amazing wrestler who should be able to hold him on the ground for as long as he wants. Peña crumbles once he faces any fighters that have the slightest bit of talent and I think we will see that again this evening.
Alex Munoz by Decision +130 2 units
Prelims
Tracy Cortez vs. Justine Kish Flyweight Bout
Tracy Cortez by Decision -150 (Prop Line) 2 units
Alexander Romanov vs. Juan Espino Heavyweight Bout
Alexander Romanov by 3rd Round Submission -140 2 units (Going to hammer over 1.5 Rds -135 too)
Jessica Penne vs. Lupita Godinez Strawweight Bout
Lupita Godinez by Decision -120 (Prop Line) 1 unit
Bartosz Fabiński vs. Gerald Meerschaert Middleweight Bout
Gerald Meerschaert by 1st Round Submission -103 1 unit
Austin Hubbard vs. Dakota Bush Lightweight Bout
Dakota Bush by 2nd Round Submission +160 1 unit
Tony Gravely vs. Anthony Birchak Bantamweight Bout
Tony Gravely by 1st Round TKO +165 (Prop Line) 1 unit
DraftKings Lineup:
That is all I have for this evening of fights. I really like my picks and am almost sad I am going to have to be careful with how much I already have going on Askren. Gravely better win that first fight to bankroll me for the rest of the card. Have a strong feeling there will end up being a lot of half unit positions so I don’t have to sell some of my possessions. Hopefully we all win some money and can say fuck you to our books, bet responsibly. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!