I feel refreshed after a somewhat successful first fight night of the year heading into the first PPV of the year. I think what felt like 4 years off from cards gave me clarity to see what truly matters. Stop betting on guys you like so much because they only let you down. So for this card I am only betting on one guy that I like a lot (Arnold Allen) and fading my other favorite (Sean Strickland). These are some of the more underdogs I have taken in a while but I will keep my unit low on them just in case they break my heart. Pretty happy they gave us some pretty close lines here so I don’t have to parlay as much or do method of victory as often (I will still do both of those a lot). Does this card really feel like a PPV? No. Am I excited for some of these bouts? Yes. Strickland vs DDP has a lot of bad blood (or so we thought), we finally get another women’s bantamweight champion (neither feel like they’ll hold it for long), Mike Malott returns against the ultimate gatekeeper, it’s a Strickland card so you know we are getting some Chris Curtis, and probably the most interesting matchup on the card in Allen vs Evloev. I have decided I am over the Dagi wrestlefuckers so you will start to see that shown in my picks, I think the reign of terror is fleeting. Alright enough of my rambling, let’s get into these picks!
Sean Strickland vs. Dricus du Plessis Middleweight Championship Bout
I flip flopped on this a good amount, the only fight on the main card that I didn’t feel clarity. Strickland has looked like a man possessed lately. That win over Adesanya was absolutely bonkers and dominant, I picked him but had 0 faith in him actually pulling it off. His only loss as of late was a split decision against Jared Cannonier which no one thinks he should have lost. His philly shell has stifled his opponents and has made it near impossible to land anything clean (unless you are Pereira and only need one). But like Pereira, DDP can absolutely maul Strickland with very little striking success. After seeing what DDP did to Bobby Knuckles it is very hard for me to bet against him, especially with a pick’em line. Sorry Sean, I have to go against you this time.
Dricus du Plessis by 2nd Round TKO -110 2 units
Raquel Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva Bantamweight Championship Bout
Do I actually care about this fight? Not really. Sure it will be nice to have a champion but this sort of feels like when Nicco Montano or GDR had the belt, we knew it was ending soon. But for gambling’s sake, let’s put this fight in a vacuum. Pennington has been on a tear outside of her questionable decision win over Ketlen Veira. Does she do anything spectacular in the octagon? No. It is so hard to bet on her because at best she is going to keep her distance and pepper strikes that couldn’t bruise a baby. Mayra Bueno Silva on the other hand is a monster that comes in looking to kill you. She just got her last win over Holly removed because she took Ritalin but who cares that’s barely a PED. I think she gets a hold of Pennington and either takes her down and mauls her or puts her up against the cage and mauls her. Hoping this leaves no questions to the judges.
Mayra Bueno Silva by Decision -160 1 unit
Neil Magny vs. Mike Malott Welterweight Bout
I may be silly here but I feel like the only thing to wonder is if Malott finishes it or wins by decision. I really don’t See Magny being near his level. Then again, Magny usually wins a random fight like this to keep him at gatekeeper status. If you lose too many in a row you get downgraded to journeyman, which is usually the beginning of the end. I see this being the beginning of the end for Magny.
Mike Malott by 1st Round Submission (Win in Rds 1-2 Prop) -135 1 unit
Chris Curtis vs. Marc-André Barriault Middleweight Bout
I like the guys at Syndicate/Xtreme Couture a lot. They always want to put on a show and are just psychos outside of the octagon, but more in an incel way that I find amusing. The thing is, is Chris Curtis actually good? I am not convinced quite yet, especially to make him a -180 favorite. Marc-Andre Barriault is a hard opponent for anyone, making him +150 against a very hit or miss fighter feels like free money to me. This is one of those fights where I won’t mind being wrong so will probably just throw it in a parlay.
Marc-Andre Barriault by Decision +150 1 unit
Arnold Allen vs. Movsar Evloev Featherweight Bout
Man I am so sick of these bearded mustacheless fuckers controling this sport. Maybe its because the Dagi’s stormed the airport to try and kill all of the passengers of a flight from Israel, or maybe it’s because they produce such boring fights if they can’t find a sub or ground and pound. Who’s to say? Arnold Allen is a fucking monster with his only loss coming to Holloway in a very close bout. Why can’t he be the guy to derail one of these hype trains? He looks as strong as Evloev, he has solid grappling, way stronger striking, and he is a likable dude. Man I wish Diego Lopes was able to be the one to do it, but I think Arnold pulls of the miraculous upset (I know it’s only +154 but feels bigger).
Arnold Allen by Decision +154 1 unit
Brad Katona vs. Garrett Armfield Bantamweight Bout
Brad Katona by Decision (Win in Rds 3 or Dec Prop) -115 1 unit
Charles Jourdain vs. Sean Woodson Featherweight Bout
Sean Woodson by 3rd Round Submission +170 1 unit
Serhiy Sidey vs. Ramon Taveras Bantamweight Bout
Serhiy Sidey by 1st Round TKO -180 2 units
Gillian Robertson vs. Polyana Viana Strawweight Bout
Gillian Robertson by 3rd Round Submission (SGP over 1.5 Rds) +120 1 unit
Yohan Lainesse vs. Sam Patterson Welterweight Bout
Sam Patterson by Decision +120 1 unit
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Priscila Cachoeira Bantamweight Bout
Jasmine Jasudavicius by Decision (Prop Line) -105 1 unit
Malcolm Gordon vs. Jimmy Flick Flyweight Bout
This fight will end by Submission +110
Alright that is all I have for you on this beautiful day of fights. While writing the copy for this it actually gave me more confidence in all of my picks, not sure if that is a good or bad sign yet. There will have to be a day where I get every pick right and maybe today is that day. I am due for some good luck in sports. All of my teams are in the shitter, maybe my fighters can pull one out for a nice guy. I’ll stop blabbering, remember to bet responsibly and stick to your units. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!