KHABIB VS GAETHJE! KHABIB VS GAETHJE! KHABIB VS GAETHJE! We are finally here! This is all I have wanted to since I came to terms that Tony Khabib was never meant to be. This is a legacy fight. One that will be constantly brought up when talking about either guy’s legacy. The highest level wrestler that Khabib has fought in the UFC and possibly the most power. After that we have Whittaker vs Cannonier?? What have we done to deserve so many gifts in one evening. The Middleweight number 1 contender bout between 2 guys that actually deserve it *chef’s kiss*. Then yada yada yada to Ankalaev vs Cutelaba 2! Jeez I cannot contain myself on how awesome this card is. I don’t want to waste too much time here.
Let’s get into these picks:
Main Card
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Justin Gaethje Lightweight Championship Bout
I swear to god this fight seemed like it was months away, now all of the sudden it is tomorrow at like 4 PM. Khabib Nurmagomedov in all likelihood could go down as the best fighter in UFC history. GSP slipped up, Jon Jones has all his issues, Anderson Silva fought for too long. Khabib seems to know exactly how long to stay in this game and who he needs to beat to be considered the GOAT. His training camp is perfect, his gameplans are perfect, he has maybe lost one round in his whole goddamn career. I will never understand how people think his style is boring. He isn’t like Usman just trying to smother you till you get stood up, he takes you down and mauls you for an entire round or until you give up your neck. The man is a juggernaut and is looking to take down another fantastic opponent in this super stacked division.
This opponent though is none other than the Violent One, Mr. Justin Gaethje. This man has a chin of brick, hands of stone, and was an All-American D1 wrestler in college. His 2 losses are to guys who either held the belt, or an interim belt. Since those losses, he has actually slowed his output, but has taken less damage and destroyed his opponents. You look at the one guy people thought could give Khabib a run for his money. Gaethje put such a bad beating on him that the ref had to stop it standing up. Gaethje has been taken down a couple times in his career but is incredibly hard to take down. The thing that separates him from every other opponent that Khabib has faced, no not his wrestling pedigree, is that he does not give a flying fuck taking a punch or kick while trying to get back up. He will stand on the tracks and knows damn well that Khabib would not. It is obviously a long shot, but I am riding with Gaethje to win this one. I think he disrespects Khabib’s striking so much that he will put himself in harm’s way to avoid what Khabib is actually good at. The most shocking outcome of this fight would be a Khabib KO, so I say put your chin to the test and try to put this Russian to sleep.
Justin Gaethje by 3rd Round TKO +245 1 unit
Robert Whittaker vs Jared Cannonier Middleweight Bout
Really awesome matchup here, likely for the next shot at Israel. Robert Whittaker was a great champion who just constantly had to battle through some injuries. The issue is that he never had to fight that many of the greats to get the belt and keep the belt. I am not slandering Jacare or Yoel here, but he probably had one of the easier paths out of anyone to gold. His boxing was always spot on and had good enough wrestling/wrestling defense to keep things standing when he needed to. I thought he lost that Yoel rematch (although I do not think it was a robbery, super close fight) and he got destroyed by Israel.
Jared Cannonier was a heavyweight that stunk. Then Jared Cannonier was a light heavyweight that was ok. Now Jared Cannonier is a Middleweight that is likely the biggest threat to Israel in the whole division. The power and accuracy he holds in his hands is unmatched, and don’t bring up Costa and Yoel who swing for the fences. He has demolished his 185 opponents and this is his last stop on the way to that title fight. Bobby won’t have what he needs in his hands to get a finish and Cannonier will be throwing non stop till he gets his. I do not think we have to worry about the judges in this one as the Killa Gorilla takes it in dominant fashion.
Jared Cannonier by 2nd Round TKO -120 1 units
Alexander Volkov vs Walt Harris Heavyweight Bout
I hate this. Walt Harris has been through one of the worst things that can happen to a human being. He fought through so much emotion and nearly got what would have been a UFC historical win over Overeem for pure story. The issue is what his issue has always been, he has no gas tank. It’s why he is 13-8. Alexander Volkov is one of the smartest fighters in the weight class and would likely have fought Stipe by now if he didn’t get put to sleep in the final seconds against Derrick Lewis. Volkov will keep his distance and tire out Harris and get the judges nod.
Alexander Volkov by Decision -175 2 units
Jacob Malkoun vs Phil Hawes Middleweight Bout
I am going to preface this by saying I do not know much about Jacob Malkoun. He only has a few pro fights under his belt and against very weak competition. Phil Hawes is a solid middleweight and do not think he would get beat by someone with this little experience, and am not going to really throw anything on this one.
Phil Hawes by 2nd Round TKO -245 1 units
Lauren Murphy vs Liliya Shakirova Flyweight bout
Another huge gap in competition faced here. Lauren Murphy is on a pretty impressive stretch with three straight wins against Mara Borella, Andrea Lee, and Roxanne Modafferi. This is Liliya’s UFC debut and her last win was against a 1-1 fighter in GFC. Hard to think of any reason to bet against Lauren Murphy unless you are down a lot of money and just want to take an underdog.
Lauren Murphy by Decision -205 2 units
Magomed Ankalaev vs Ion Cuțelaba Light Heavyweight Bout
The rematch is finally happening! I thought I had written a blog for the first one but I cannot find it anywhere, but I am pretty sure I won money on this fight. I must have taken the under because I don’t think I would have taken the juice on a -200+ favorite. I see a similar thing happening in this bout as the first, just fairly. Magomed is a cleaner, better striker with a lot of power behind each shot he throws. Ion is just a nutjob who is throwing to kill, but severely lacks in fundamentals. He will have a lot of fire to start but Magomed will start bunching combos and it will become overwhelming and suffocating. There’s always a puncher’s chance, but Magomed takes this one and can finally put this cursed bout to rest.
Magomed Ankalaev by 1st Round TKO -325 3 units
Prelims
Stefan Struve vs Tai Tuivasa Heavyweight Bout
Stefan please just retire, it really isn’t all that entertaining watching you fight even though you are a million feet tall. Tai is going to control this fight and it will be a much needed win for him. Struve will realize who should have kept them hung up after his sub win a few years back.
Tai Tuivasa by 2nd Round TKO -130 1 unit
Nathaniel Wood vs Casey Kenney Catchweight (140 lb) Bout
This is probably the best value underdog on the card. Nathaniel Wood is a seriously good young prospect who got caught by John Dodson (which is super embarrassing) but has some incredible grappling. Casey Kenny is also a really good grappler, and doesn’t make too many mistakes. This will come down to who can get top position, and I really believe it will be Wood more often than not.
Nathaniel Wood by Decision +145 1 unit
Alex Oliveira vs Shavkat Rakhmonov Welterweight Bout
I could not find a lot of film on Shavkat no matter where I looked, but these M-1 guys have disappointed me a lot once they step in the spotlight. The bit I was able to find wasn’t crazy high level, definitely not enough to be a slight favorite in this one. Fake Cowboy looked great in his last bout, and will show there are levels to this game and that he should be the favorite in his next bout after being a near constant dog.
Alex Oliveira by Decision -103 1 unit
Da Un Jung vs Sam Alvey Light Heavyweight Bout
I will be brief here. Sam Alvey just isn’t good. I hate taking heavy favorites like this, but Sam Alvey just doesn’t win fights. He is an awesome dude, just not an awesome fighter. Da Un Jung has seen the judges only twice in his career and doesn’t plan on needing them on Fight Island. This will be a highlight reel finish, mark my words.
Da Un Jung by 2nd Round TKO -335 4 units
Early Prelims
Liana Jojua vs Miranda Maverick Flyweight Bout
Liana Jojua by Decision +295 1 unit
Joel Álvarez vs Alexander Yakovlev Lightweight Bout
Joel Alvarez by 2nd Round Submission -175 2 units
DraftKings Lineup:
That is all I have for you for UFC 254. This should make for one of the best one title fight cards we have seen in a very, very long time. Keep an eye on our twitter for random O/U bets that I know will hit. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!