Jake’s Punch Lines UFC Fight Island 2

Fight Island is one of the greatest things to happen to society, and it came during one of the worst times in modern world history. I can say I want the 25 foot cage back, but Wednesday’s fights were still action packed regardless of cage size. Wednesday was probably some of my best picks since I started this blog and I want to keep that ball rolling. If there was ever a time that I want to win my readers money, it’s when there are no other sports to bet on so the spotlight is really on me. This card is pretty awesome in terms of action and I hope I can do the right thing for everyone.

We have the rematch for the vacant flyweight belt between Deiveson Figueiredo and Joseph Benavidez. Jack Hermansson finally gets his high ranked opponent so he can prove he belongs with the big boys. The Bone Collector returns to face some young blood in Rafael Fiziev. A couple of young flyweights in Ariane Lipski and Luana Carolina are looking to climb the ranks to get a shot at the second baddest woman on the planet. To round out the Main card we have a men’s flyweight battle between 2 hungry contenders that are not too many wins away from getting a shot at one of the guys up top.

Let’s Get into these picks:

Main Card

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Joseph Benavidez Flyweight Bout

This one is a little weird to me. I came in here with all intentions of picking Figueiredo. Benavidez has been incredibly annoying in the lead up to this fight, trying to make it Fig’s fault for not getting out of Benavidez’s way when he runs head first into you. All I wanted was for this fight to end like the last one because that would be pure comedy. Deiveson brought something to this division that it was lacking for a long time, the ability to put his opponents away. People always talk about how Dana just wants to close up shop on the 125ers, but with Fig’s rise it doesn’t seem as imminent. He has just 3 decision wins in his career, the other 15 are all finishes! This man is a killer!

Then we have Joseph Benavidez. Joe Jitsu has gone from a fan favorite to one of the least liked fighters in the sport in the matter of a few months. Ok that is an extreme exaggeration. People felt for him losing that fight after his opponent missed weight, but the amount of complaining he made about getting knocked out in that bout and the excuses just are pitiful. That being said, Benavidez is one of 2 men to have beaten Henry Cejudo in this lovely sport, and the other “dropped” the rematch. He is an incredibly talented fighter, he just bitched and moaned a lot until he got his way.

If this fight line stayed in the hundreds like Figueiredo -185 or something, I likely would take him because I can still see value there, but at -230 that is just outrageous. Benavidez will have the better gas tank, won the first round in the last fight, likely had an easier weight cut, and is the faster fighter. Where Benavidez loses is that he can’t finish the fight like Fig can. Fig can end this at any second if he lands his shot. But… with that value for Benavidez, I just have to ride with him, the line is a little disrespectful and I must take advantage.

Joseph Benavidez by Decision +175 1 unit

Jack Hermansson vs Kelvin Gastelum Middleweight Bout

I like Kelvin a lot, but I do not think he will be in the division much longer. I understand he almost beat Izzy for the belt at one point, but he looked overwhelmed by Till at times who was coming up from 170 (albeit he was huge at 170). He has great wrestling and boxing, but every fight he goes into he has such a big height disadvantage that he is constantly fighting against that. Kelvin has wanted to go back to 170 several times, but has always had major issues with that weight cut, the only way I see him surviving at 185 is if he goes to AKA and learns hour DC has been doing his thing for so long.

Jack Hermansson looked to be taking over the division until a sudden KO loss to Jared Cannonier. His grappling has evolved to some of the best in the division due to his crazy long limbs, and his striking is pretty on point too just maybe lacks some of the pop the other guys have. Kelvin will not be able to clinch as much in this bout as he normally likes to, being 4 inches shorter against a guy who has an incredible guillotine choke. I see Joker kind of confusing Kelvin a lot in this one until a mistake is made and he can pounce.

Jack Hermansson by 3rd Round Submission -120 1 unit

Marc Diakiese vs Rafael Fiziev Lightweight

Another fight that after doing the research I completely changed my mind. I remember Rafael Fiziev’s last fight and he looked great. He has a lot of pop in his strikes and walks you down at an unrealistic pace. But after watching it again, the man takes a lot of shots and damage in the process. He lost to Magomed Mustafaev doing just that, and didn’t adjust much in his next fight, his opponent was just worse. Marc Diakiese went through a brutal 3 loss streak before his most recent 2 wins and looks like a new man. His striking is precise and powerful, and he has added wrestling to his repertoire. He has more to win this fight and the line definitely reflects that. Go with Diakiese in this one, but also be prepared for a fight of the night contender.

Marc Diakiese by Decision -165 2 units

Ariane Lipski vs Luana Carolina Flyweight Bout

This is a fun women’s matchup and only women’s matchup on the whole card. This fight has been cancelled twice in the last few months and is finally happening tonight. Ariane Lipski has just one UFC win in her 3 fights and looks to keep the ball rolling and start a win streak, but Luana Carolina is here to squash those dreams. Luana hasn’t lost a fight since her pro MMA debut, with 5 straight wins including a DWCS and UFC win. She wants to make her name known amongst the fans in this 125 division. As an EV dog I see great value here, there is no real reason to pick Ariane other than her experience.

Luana Carolina by Decision EV 1 unit

Alexandre Pantoja vs Askar Askarov Flyweight Bout

This is my favorite underdog pick of the whole card. Both of these guys are great fighters and really help add depth to this “dying division”. Pantoja has been in the UFC for quite a while now, fighting the top of the division and unfortunately stumbling back down after the peaks. He holds wins over Wilson Reis, Brandon Moreno, and Matt Schnell which is pretty impressive as that is most of the weight class. He also holds losses to Dustin Ortiz, and the leading man tonight Deiveson Figueiredo. 

Askar is a recent newcomer, earning a draw last fall against Brandon Moreno then coming back in January and earning a win over Tim Elliott. Askar has a ton of upside with a good gas tank and ridiculous wrestling game. His fight with Brandon Moreno was close, Moreno is likely one of the more squirmy guys he will ever face, everyone else will fall victim to the Dagestani wrestling nonsense and gas out and lose. Unless he gets caught, which is yet to ever happen, Askar will grind Pantoja down and take this W.

Askar Askarov by Decision +150 1 unit

Prelims

Khadis Ibragimov vs Roman Dolidze Light Heavyweight Bout

Roman Dolidze by 2nd Round TKO -165 1 unit

Grant Dawson vs Nad Narimani Catchweight (150 lb) Bout

Grant Dawson by 3rd Round Submission -240 2 units

Joseph Duffy vs Joel Álvarez Lightweight Bout

Joel Alvaraz by 2nd Round Submission +230 1 unit

Brett Johns vs Montel Jackson Bantamweight Bout

Montel Jackson by Decision -250 2 units

Malcolm Gordon vs Amir Albazi Flyweight Bout

Amir Albazi by Decision -145 1 unit

Davi Ramos vs Arman Tsarukyan Lightweight Bout

Arman Tsarukyan by Decision -240 2 unit

Sergey Spivak vs Carlos Felipe Heavyweight Bout

I am on a time crunch so I haven’t written anything for the prelims but I will say here that there is no reason Sergey Spivak should be that big of a favorite ever. He has one UFC win and has shown pretty weak stuff in his other 2 UFC bouts. He might be slightly more well rounded but not enough to be -200, get that shit outta here.

Carlos Felipe by 1st Round TKO +150 1 unit

DraftKings Lineup:

I do not know why, but I love this lineup today. It just feels right. I feel like i got that formula that will win me the gold. Let’s get rich today, why not?

Well that wraps things up for me today. Pretty tough one to pick, all the lines were steep but I tried to not let my heart get in the way and made picks I truly believe will pay off. I want to make money again as I am sure we all do. I’ll leave it at that, as always, may luck be your lady tonight!