We are back in the City of Sin for another UFC PPV! I will not beat around the bush, if this was any other time in UFC history, this would likely be considered one of the worst PPV cards ever. They are asking fans to pay $70 for the Women’s Featherweight Title Bout and maybe the Men’s Bantamweight number 1 contender bout. If this was a fight night, it is a great card and the fans would be super appreciative. That being said, this is a time of crisis all over the globe, so I will cut uncle Dana some slack here. There are a lot of really interesting matchups nonetheless, but also some pretty heavy lines to scare us away from the favorites. This is probably the hardest time I have had locking in my picks in a very long time.
The title fight they are giving us is really the only move Amanda Nunes could make that holds any merit. There are really no more bantamweight contenders that are worthy right now, and Dana shipped Cyborg to Bellator. I can’t for the life of me figure out why Assunção v Garbrandt is the co main over Aljo v Sandhagen considering both guys are coming off losses and are further from a title shot. The rest of the card has some fun fights but nothing that really moves in terms of top 5 contenders, but we are in this to make cash so who really gives a shit (as long as we make more gambling than the cost of the PPV all is well).
Let’s get on with these picks already for fucks sake:
Main Card
Amanda Nunes vs Felicia Spencer Featherweight Championship Bout
I feel like I do not really need to analyze this fight too much. Amanda Nunes is the greatest female fighter we have seen, and the only person in the same realm talent wise is Valentina Schevchenko (you could make the case for Cyborg but getting stopped in round 1 hurts a lot). She has beaten every type of fighter known to MMA and every single woman that has held the Bantamweight or Featherweight belts. I am not sure there is any other fighter that has accomplished anything even close to that.
Felicia Spencer is a very good fighter. She weathered one hell of a storm against Cris Cyborg in a decision loss and has finished all but 2 of her other opponents. She has elite grappling and is probably the biggest fighter that Amanda Nunes will have ever faced in terms of strength and mass. With all of this in mind, she is still nowhere near Nunes’ level and will have to pull off something crazy to get this win. Feel free to throw a little cheddar on her because she is such a heavy dog, but she ain’t gonna win this one.
Amanda Nunes by Decision -650 5 units (I will not be betting on this fight, maybe the over, because this line just sucks way too bad)
Raphael Assunção vs Cody Garbrandt Bantamweight Bout
Assunção is a great fighter and has been a contender forever. He has beaten so many top contenders in his time, he has just never been able to string enough together to get to the big title shot he has wanted since his first UFC bout in 2011. He is coming off 2 consecutive losses to Moraes (#1 contender) and Sandhagen (fighting for potentially the #1 contender bout). He will always be a force to be reckoned with in this weight class, but needs to be able to get that big win that gets people talking about him again.
Cody Garbrandt is a story as old as time. Great young contender that gets the title so quick that he seems unbeatable. Then comes a juiced up villain to take that away from him, twice. In his bout following those losses he got KOd by Pedro Munhoz after taking an unintentional headbutt. Garbrandt is one of the most talented fighters in this weight class, if not the most talented, but has some issues between the ears. He says he put in the work since his last fight to learn that patience and composure that will stop him from making those stupid mistakes that have cost him 3 straight. For some odd reason, I believe the guy. This is Cody’s time to prove that title belongs to him and make his climb back to the top. Let’s ride with No Love.
Cody Garbrandt by 2nd Round TKO -140 1 unit
Aljamain Sterling vs Cory Sandhagen Bantamweight Bout
Fuck I do not want to pick between these 2 guys. They both have done things the right way, climbing to the top, beating all the guys put in front of them, to earn their rightful spot in the top 5 of the rankings. Aljo is coming off 4 straight wins after being caught with a head kick from Marlon Moraes. He has dominant wrestling and his striking is improving every bout. Not to mention he is from Long Island which makes him like 1.5% better than anyone else he is facing.
Cory Sandhagen is undefeated in the UFC with only one loss in his career. His last bout being his biggest, a win over Assunção in pretty dominant fashion. He survived an armbar against Alcantara that would have made almost any other fighter tap, but the dude has a heart of a lion. He is one of the tallest 135ers I have ever seen and very accurate striking to back it all up. I thought he lost that bout against Lineker though, he was very gun shy and took far more damage than he delivered. Not that it matters, just showed vulnerability.
In this smaller cage Sandhagen is at a huge disadvantage. He will not be able to keep things at a distance like he is so accustomed to. Aljo wins fights when he is able to wrap you up and keep you guessing on whether or not he is gonna shoot or strike. He will be able to accomplish this at the Apex center, and take this victory back home to Strong Island.
Aljamain Sterling by Decision -115 1 unit
Neil Magny vs Anthony Rocco Martin Welterweight Bout
I like both of these guys a lot. Magny has been around since 2013 having beaten a lot of familiar faces and former title challengers and title holders (ok just Johnny Hendricks but Carlos Condit was close enough). He has great standup and understands the sport very well. You do not find him beating himself too often in the octagon. He has always looked great in his wins, but in his losses it just seemed obvious he was the inferior fighter. Never able to make that next step and beat the guys he needs to beat to get to the top.
Anthony Rocco Martin joined the UFC as a lightweight amassing an 8-0 record before joining with a mix of both welterweight and lightweight matches. He had a rough going at 155 quickly losing 3 out of 4 bouts with his only win coming at a catchweight after both guys missed the mark. He figured some stuff out after and won 3 out of his next 4 before returning to welterweight, where his only loss was a close decision to Demian Maia. Martin will be able to win the grappling exchanges and close the distance in this smaller cage which will win him this fight. Magny loves to play the points but there isn’t anywhere to hid in a 25 foot octagon.
Anthony Rocco Martin by Decision +110 1 unit
Eddie Wineland vs Sean O’Malley Bantamweight Bout
Eddie Wineland is not a very good fighter anymore. Since joining the UFC he is 6-7 and has not beaten anyone in the top 10 currently (Scott Jorgenson and Brad Pickett were good wins at the time but it’s 2020). Wineland will likely try to make this a wrestling match which with the smaller cage could very well be the case.
Suga Sean is no slouch in the grappling department, having competed in the quintet tournaments. He has crazy long limbs that make it super hard to keep him on the ground or to posture up. He should take this fight with ease, would be shocked at any other outcome.
Suga Sean by 3rd Round TKO -550 3 units (same as the Nunes bet, not going to ride this but the over is quite tasty)
Prelims
Alex Caceres vs Chase Hooper Featherweight Bout
Chase Hooper is becoming everyone’s new favorite fighter. He has that boyhood charm and just overall excitement to be able to compete on the same stage as all of these legends. He has insane height and reach for this weight class and has shown that in pretty much every bout he has had. Alex Bruce Leeroy Caceres just is not that good. He has the experience over Hooper for sure but is worse in every other category. This was a fight given to Hooper to groom him into a future contender and that will show through.
Chase Hooper by 2nd Round TKO -170 2 units
Ian Heinisch vs Gerald Meerschaert Middleweight Bout
This one hurts the most. Ian Heinisch has one of the coolest stories in all of mixed martial arts. It includes prisons, drug dealing, well that’s mostly it but it’s insane and I highly recommend reading his Player’s Tribune article. That being said, Meerschaert is a better fighter than him. He has better wins, most of his losses of late have been split decisions, and just had more tools to win this bout.
Gerald Meerschaert by Decision +110 1 unit
Cody Stamann vs Brian Kelleher Featherweight Bout
Every single thing I see should have me picking Cody Stamann for this bout. He is a more well rounded fighter, he has better wins as of late, and he is a decently heavy favorite. But to that I say fuck those things, Boom Kelleher just needs one punch to finish this and has incredible BJJ. Both of these guys are true 135ers so the weight should not make a difference. Boom might lose 2 rounds but he just needs to land that right hand once to ruin Stamann’s night. (Absolutely horrible what happened to Stamann’s brother, crazy that he is taking this fight at all)
Brian Kelleher by 3rd Round TKO +220 .5 units
Charles Byrd vs Maki Pitolo Middleweight Bout
Both of these guys are pretty unproven in the UFC. Charles Byrd has definitely faced better competition but is coming off 2 big TKO losses and that can weigh on a fighter heavily. Pitolo lost his debut by decision, but has not beaten anyone of note. To pick I would definitely go with Byrd here.
Charles Byrd by 2nd round Submissions -185 2 units
Early Prelims
Jussier Formiga vs Alex Perez Flyweight Bout
I will just say that you are stupid to not take Jussier Formiga as a dog. This fight is definitely razor close but Formiga has huge wins (one over Figuerido who was 2 lbs away from being champion) in recent history. Perez’s biggest win is over Mark de la Rosa which isn’t bad but he should not be the favorite here. Take Formiga, smarter bet.
Jussier Formiga by Decision +105 1 unit
Alonzo Menifield vs Devin Clark Light Heavyweight Bout
Alonzo Menifield by 1st Round TKO -230 2 units
Evan Dunham vs Herbert Burns Catchweight (150) Bout
Herbert Burns by 2nd Round Submission -245 2 units
DraftKings Lineup:
As I have done as of late, here are my picks that I like, morphed into a DK lineup that will win us some cash money.
This is all I have for you for tomorrow night’s fight night. I put my heart and soul into these picks and truly believe we will get rich out here. Stay away from the huge favorites, this is not the time to bridge jump. Formiga is probably my favorite bet of the whole night. Stay tuned for any over unders to take live. As always, may luck be your lady tonight.
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