Jake’s Punch Lines UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Harris

It is Saturday in the middle of one of the worst global pandemics since Ed Hardy shirts, yet we have fights to bless us yet again. This card doesn’t have a whole lot to offer in terms of title contenders, but holy shit are these some close matchups. I have never had a harder time doing my picks. I am in love with so many of the favorites that it is giving me anxiety, but I am not letting myself make bad picks for the sake of peppering in some dogs. I ended up up 4 units after last week’s fights and want to keep the money rolling in (sure a lot of that money was off of random over under bets, but money is money).

Dana has never had an easier time making matchups for fights, these warriors need the payday more than ever and fans don’t care if the cards stink anymore because it is the only thing to watch. Overeem vs Harris has been destined for ages, but as soon as there was news of short notice cards coming together, you knew Angela Hill was coming. The only shocking thing about these cards is that Gilbert Burns hasn’t made an appearance. The Immortal Matt Brown is proving his nickname right by not succumbing to COVID. The rest of the prelims are made up of mostly newer names that are looking to get some fans while all eyes are watching. Yet again the UFC has given me something to look forward to during the dark ages.

Let’s get into these picks already:

Main Card

Alistair Overeem vs Walt Harris Heavyweight Bout

Alistair Overeem could not be luckier than taking this fight when there are no fans to watch. Walt Harris has the whole world behind him after the tragic loss of his step daughter last year. Overeem had a good couple bounce back wins after dropping 2 to Ngannou and Blaydes. Arguably the 2 best losses you can have in the heavyweight division outside the champion and Cormier. In his last bout he was dominating Jair Rozenstruik and was 4 seconds away from securing a victory that likely would have put him in the top 5. His lip got exploded in that bout so it is hard to say that it was an early stoppage but if I were Overeem I’d want to be beaten to a pulp for the next 4 seconds till that bell rang instead of taking the ref’s stoppage.

Walt Harris is coming off 4 wins (one ruled a DQ after getting popped for PEDs) with only one over a top 15 opponent. He has a ton of motivation going into this fight, trying to put it all out there in honor of his lost step daughter. He has bombs in his hands up there with some of the heaviest hands in the promotion. Harris only began training in MMA in 2010, at that point Overeem had already been competing for 11 years. While I think Walt is an awesome guy and has a lot to fight for, I just do not think he is on the same talent level as Overeem. Overeem will fight a smart fight and do what he needs to do to take Harris into deep waters and show his experience matters most in this fight.

Alistair Overeem by 5th Round TKO +120 1 unit

Cláudia Gadelha vs Angela Hill Strawweight Bout

This one really really hurt. I love Angela Hill. She has become my favorite female fighter as of late. She doesn’t care who the opponent is or when the fight is, she just wants to bang bro. She has put together 3 straight and has looked better than ever. She has some of the best Muay Thai in the division and a super high fight IQ to make the proper adjustments as needed. Claudia Gadelha has just as good standup, better ground game, and is the bigger fighter. She has beaten better competition and has been a top fighter in the weight class since it was created. I think Angela is too small to do damage to her and will get overpowered like she did against Randa Markos. It pains me to say all this after being such a fanboy for the last year, but I need my picks to be right more. When I watch these fights with my brother there are always a couple that I would prefer my pick to be wrong for the sake of my fandom, this is one of them. Smart bet is still on Claudia.

Claudia Gadelha by Decision -225 2 unit

Dan Ige vs Edson Barboza Featherweight Bout

Edson Barboza actually managed to make it down to 145. I have no fucking idea how he did it but he did. He looked really depleted but no worse than others on cut day and if he doesn’t lose too much power and speed from the cut he can be a real problem in this weight class. He is always the bridesmaid and never the bride. Always so damn close to getting to the big shot but then loses to a top contender in a close fight. Dan Ige is a big up and comer with only 2 losses in his 15 pro bouts. He is running through the competition at 145 and killing the hype of a lot of guys in his way. I have picked against him wrong before, thinking he doesn’t have what it takes to beat the talent they are throwing his way, but he has prevailed. This time he has met his match in one of the best strikers in lightweight history. Edson will be able to bring enough of his ability down to this division and show it in Jacksonville tonight.

Edson Barboza by Decision -135 1 unit

Eryk Anders vs Krzysztof Jotko Middleweight Bout

These are not the 2 most talented fighters you will ever see, but they like to exchange so that’s all I care about. Eryk Anders is a former Crimson Tide football player who has fared well in his move to mixed martial arts. He has stalled out lately, having a hard time making that jump to the next level, which includes having more than a left hand. Coming off a close split decision win over Meerschaert last fall, he looks to show that he has added what he needs to to be a force in the 185 class. Jotko is a more experienced fighter with a lot of the same talents. A strong striker that will stand and exchange with you to get the win. The only problem is he doesn’t have nearly the same amount of power in his hands. Jotko has fallen victim to guys with heavy hands dropping 2 straight to Uriah Hall and Brad Tavares. Anders will use his power to keep Jotko guessing until he finds that punch that puts him out for good.

Eryk Anders by 2nd Round TKO +125 1 unit

Song Yadong vs Marlon Vera Featherweight Bout

This fight had me back and forth all week. Chito Vera is moving up from 135 to take this fight, possibly a pretty silly career move if this doesn’t work out in his favor. He has been rolling through the competition, constantly getting top matchups as of late only to lose them to pandemics and injuries. Vera is an elite finisher, who hasn’t seen the judges for a victory since 2016. Always respect a man that does whatever he can to keep things out of the judges hands. Song Yadong is only 22 years old and has 21 pro matches. That is absolutely insane. He has been training Team Alpha Male for a few years now and is said to only be getting better and better. He is also moving up a weight class to take this bout but has more to prove that Chito does. The move up will benefit him more as the bigger, stronger fighter and will help him have his way with Vera and show he is the future of this weight class. Song Yadong won’t let the visa issue get to his head and will make TAM proud.

Song Yadong by Decision -200 2 units

Prelims

Matt Brown vs Miguel Baeza Welterweight Bout

The Immortal Matt Brown will always be a legend in the UFC. Almost never in a boring fight, he had some of the most elite standup in the division with a very strong submission game to match. Brown almost fought his way up to a title a few times, but had a passion for losing that title eliminator match. He comes up against some fresh blood in Miguel Baeza, who is the featured prelim in just his 2nd UFC fight. Baeza is an undefeated prospect with some devastating striking. He hasn’t faced nearly the talent that Matt Brown has in his hayday, but I think his strength and youth will be overwhelming for Brown, who likely should have kept them hung up after his hall of fame worthy KO of Diego Sanchez. I am riding with Baeza.

Miguel Baeza by 3rd Round TKO -150 2 units

Anthony Hernandez vs Kevin Holland Middleweight Bout

This matchup is one of 2 essentially pick’em lines on this card, which means it is of course the hardest to pick. You can’t rationalize picking the dog to avoid the bite because it doesn’t exist and you can’t just pick the favorite because you think the book is smart. Anthony Hernandez is only in his 3rd UFC bout, going 1-1 in his first 2 both ending in an anaconda choke. In his pre UFC days he loved the guillotine choke with 4 of his 8 total fights ending that way. Hernandez is looking to take down Holland who has had flashes of something special in between bouts of pure disappointment. He rattled off 3 straight wins before losing to Brendan Allen (who Hernandez beat but MMA math is stupid), When Holland is on he’s on, but he won’t be able to put Hernandez away early which will lead to more gassed out grappling exchanges which puts this fight in Hernandez’s hands. Lock in Mr. Hernandez.

Anthony Hernandez by 2nd Round Submission -115 1 unit

Giga Chikadze vs Irwin Rivera Featherweight Bout

I don’t need to give too much analysis on this one. Irwin Rivera is the Titan FC bantamweight champion and is moving up to 145 on 1 days notice to take on Giga Chikadze. Chikadze is on a 4 fight winning streak and will keep it rolling against Irwin, he won’t have had enough time to put together what he needs to for the upset here.

Giga Chikadze by Decision -355 4 units

Cortney Casey vs Mara Romero Borella Flyweight Bout

This fight is as simple as Cortney Casey is the better fighter. She is moving up to Flyweight but will still have a height advantage. This will help her cardio and likely help her strength, she should make easy work of Borella who does not sport too many spectacular UFC wins.

Courtney Casey by Decision -150 2 units

Darren Elkins vs Nate Landwehr Featherweight Bout

This one one had me questioning the meaning of life. I watched a lot of film on both of these guys to make sure I made the right decision. Nate Landwehr is a monster, he comes at you with everything he has and wants to get the finish so the judges will not be involved. That being said he takes a lot of early damage trying to wear down his opponent. It was a great strategy at M1 but you can not be doing that at this level. Darren Elkins has dropped 3 straight with his last being a mind fucking fight against Ryan Hall. He is back and wants to show that he can still compete at the highest level and he will prove that against the much more inexperienced and not as technical Landwehr. This could have fight of the night written all over. 

Darren Elkins by Decision -130 1 unit

Rodrigo Nascimento vs Don’Tale Mayes Heavyweight Bout

To be clear I have not seen too much of either fighter here, likely why they are the first fight on the card. I am going with Nascimento because he has more tools to finish the fight with a good mix of subs and TKOs. Don’Tale almost swayed me to ride with him but I can’t pick a guy who lost to Allen Crowder without a DQ. 

Rodrigo Nascimento by 2nd Round Submission -105 1 unit

DraftKings Lineup:

I have decided to start adding a DFS lineup to my blogs to give people more than one way to win some dough. I used the fights from my picks that I am most confident in along with some smart budgeting to make the optimal lineup. I am not sure if this will affect me in the long run with my DK contests but I will endure for my readers.

That is all the content I have for you guys tonight. Thank you for tuning in this week and giving us some of the most traffic we’ve had since we started last year. As always, may luck be your lady tonight.