It’s another Saturday of fights during the pandemic ridden 2020. I really want to be excited that we get another night of gambling and sanctioned violence, but holy shit does this card suck. I sit and look at this main event and feel rage. There are so many top fighters, super popular or on the cusp of a title fight. Sure there is a chance that the winner of this fight is in line for a title shot, but no one in the world wants that. Eye missed weight 2 fights in a row, and Calvillo’s biggest win by a mile. The rest of the event is filled with prelim or early prelim level bouts with a lot of unranked talent. I understand Dana is doing whatever he can to capitalize on the lack of other sports so the UFC gets all the attention, but at what cost?
The main thing we can hope for out of all of this is a lot of finishes since everyone wants to make a name for themselves with all eyes on them. Jessica Eye will need to make a statement if she ever wants a Valentina rematch after getting the soul kicked out of her. Marvin Vettori seemingly wants to murder Roberson for pulling out of the last bout and now missing weight by 4.5 fucking pounds. 3 people missing weight and 1 person pulling out because of injury is just so bad for a card, I am rationalizing at this point. I feel like such a spoiled brat complaining about this since there are no other sports, but we have the right to expect a little bit better from a 4 billion dollar company. I am done ranting.
Let’s get into these picks:
Main Card
Jessica Eye vs Cynthia Calvillo Flyweight Bout
This is actually a pretty crazy bet. I do not have too much to say about this fight so I will keep it light and breezy. Jessica Eye has only 1 flyweight loss in the UFC and it was to the arguable GOAT of women’s MMA (she beat Nunes in that second fight, I don’t care what no one says). She was miserable at 135 and other than being horrible at cutting weight, she has been great at 125. Calvillo is a great strawweight contender but only has 1 win at 125 previously in her MMA pro debut. She will be the smaller fighter and just doesn’t have the same level of competition faced. Eye being the dog here is almost too juicy of a bet.
Jessica Eye by Decision +115 1 unit
Karl Roberson vs Marvin Vettori Middleweight Bout
Marvin Vettori is a huge tool. Karl Roberson is a bit of a bitch. If Roberson made weight (or even missed by just a pound) I would likely be pulling very hard for him to win this one. It is super shitty that Roberson had to pull out of the first bout due to “illness” but Vettori is making it like spit on his mother and fucked his father. I know how horrible it is to put in all that work to get a payday taken from you the day before, but you know Dana would put you right back in the action asap, he has always been great with that. That being said, Vettori is the better fighter, should have a win over Izzy, and will want this more over fatty magoo Karl Roberson.
Marvin Vettori by 3rd Round TKO -245 2 units
Charles Rosa vs Kevin Aguilar Lightweight Bout
This bout has me going back and forth non stop. Charles Rosa just got utterly embarrassed by Bryce Mitchell just a little over a month ago. He did not take much damage, but that is tough to do on one of the biggest PPV Prelims in a very long time. Kevin Aguilar has dropped 2 straight to very good fighters but doesn’t have much behind him that shows he is that good. Charles Rosa does have a size and grappling advantage here, could see that being enough to win this one and it doesn’t hurt that he is an underdog in this one. I am rolling with Rosa.
Charles Rosa by 3rd Round Submission +155
Andre Fili vs Charles Jourdain Featherweight Bout
Andre Fili feels he has won all the recent decisions he has come up against and his recent falls have not been indicative of how much he still has left in the tank (dude is only 29). He is great at landing takedowns and keeping things there but has a very low volume of strikes thrown and landed in many of his fights. Charles Jourdain was a heavy dog in his bout vs Choi but knocked him the fuck out after likely losing the first round. I keep really wanting to pick Jourdain because if things stay on the feet he will definitely have the power advantage, but like his loss to Desmond green, he is going to just keep getting taken down to neutralize that striking (which is usually to the legs and body) and give it to Fili on the cards.
Andre Fili by Decision -245 2 units
Jordan Espinosa vs Mark De La Rosa Bantamweight Bout
Both of these guys kinda suck real bad. Jordan Espinosa has no wins over any ranked opponent currently. Mark De La Rosa has no wins over any ranked opponent currently. Espinosa happens to be ranked in the top 15 but it’s kinda flukey. To be honest, Mark De La Rosa looked like shit in his last bout, so I am just going to pick Espinosa. I wouldn’t throw much on this bout since Espinosa does have a weakness against BJJ which La Rosa is only good at. I still think La Rosa just is not high level enough to win anyways.
Jordan Espinosa by Decision -170 1 unit
Mariya Agapova vs Hannah Cifers Flyweight Bout
Who cares about this one? Hannah just got destroyed a couple of weeks ago. Mariya is making her UFC debut. Mariya is a -357 favorite without ever having fought for the promotion which is absolutely crazy. Cifers is a tiny strawweight coming off 2 losses, you can throw half a unit on her if you want for shits and gigs, but this is Mariya’s fight and hopefully she can work her way up and be a new contender.
Mariya Agapova by 2nd Round TKO -357 2 units
Prelims
Merab Dvalishvili vs Gustavo Lopez Catchweight (140) Bout
Don’t bet on this. -1000 is such an absolute joke. Merab will win but do not take that bite whatever you do.
Merab Dvalishvili by Decision -1000 a jillion units or whatever don’t bet this
Julia Avila vs Gina Mazany Bantamweight
Fuck these prelims like I am going to ride with these heavy favorites for the sake of my reputation but do not bet on them.
Julia Avila by 2nd Round TKO -650 buncha units
Tyson Nam vs Zarrukh Adashev Bantamweight Bout
I wanted to pick Zarrukh pretty bad here, but Nam is a small enough favorite for me to just feel it worth it to take the bite. Adashev is a late replacement (even though all these fights are pretty late notice), and he has only beaten the worst of the cans that Bellator had to offer. Nam has lost 2 straight to 2 top fighters and I think is good enough that he should take this one with relative ease.
Tyson Nam by Decision -150 1 unit
Christian Aguilera vs Anthony Ivy Welterweight Bout
Anthony Ivy is on a 5 fight win streak in a small promotion. Christian Aguilera is on a 2 fight win streak in LFA and another small promotion. Hard to tell if any of their competition was really that good. I am going to take Ivy because of the size advantage and just not put much cheddar on him. 5 wins in a row is hard to do in any promotion so let’s see if he can let it ride.
DraftKings Lineup:
As I started doing recently, I put together some of my favorite picks into a DK lineup to hope to bring in a new revenue stream. This card has so few fights that it might be really hard to make money, but why the fuck not.
These were some hard picks, but after last week I feel like this will be a huge bounce back. I do not know how I managed to finish 5-7 last week after starting so poorly, otherwise I have had a killer pandemic, up roughly 6 units just since fights have come back on my bets (those include over under bets and usually avoid the huge bridge jumping bets, you won’t finding me putting anything on someone over -200 I’ll take the over or under instead). So stay tuned to WasserMMA on twitter to see any over under bets we suggest! As always, may luck be your lady tonight.
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