This card is U G L Y it ain’t got no alibi other than like 10 different cancellations and pullouts and an ongoing global pandemic that is making it harder and harder to put on an event every weekend. I love the violence and appreciate it weekly, but we need a break to thicken up these cards a bit. You are trying to pull in the casual fan for a fight night and your biggest name is a 38 year old Frankie Edgar. I am not going to waste a lot of energy to write a lot of words for this card so here are the bets I kinda like.
Let’s get into these picks:
Main Card
Pedro Munhoz vs Frankie Edgar Bantamweight Bout
This comes down to 1 thing. We do not know what Frankie will look like at 135. Obviously Pedro is the younger, higher ranked, hungrier fighter in this division. Pedro is coming off a tough decision loss to Aljo where he showed flashes of being a top contender, but the grappling proved too much. Frankie Edgar is a phenomenal wrestler, and for the first time in his career, he is the same size as his opponent! Now we have no idea what he still has left in the tank, and if this fight were a few years ago the line would be near even. That being said, the line looks a bit disrespectful to me so I am going to take advantage of it. This did not work for Aldo, but Edgar didn’t have to sell his soul to make it to 135.
Frankie Edgar by Decision +225 1 unit
Marcin Prachnio vs Mike Rodríguez Light Heavyweight Bout
Is this really the co-main event? Whatever. Marcin Prachnio is a solid fighter, pretty typical mold of a create a player in a video game. Has decent striking, decent grappling, and some power to back that all up. Now Mike Rodriguez is the longer faster more precise striker. He is coming off a devastating KO loss where I may have never seen a cleaner left land. He won’t get hit like that against Marcin. He is going to fight at a distance and pick him apart till he gets the strike to end it.
Mike Rodriguez by 2nd Round TKO -245 2 units
Mariya Agapova vs Shana Dobson Flyweight Bout
Shana Dobson is arguably the worst fighter on the UFC roster, I am not sure there is a single woman in any weight class that would lose to her right now. I hate picking a -1600 favorite but holy shit how is this girl not cut already?
Mariya Agapova by 2nd Round Submission -1600 (Probably gonna take the over because why not but this line is absurd)
Daniel Rodriguez vs Dwight Grant Welterweight Bout
Daniel Rodriguez is one of my lowkey favorite fighters in the division. Some of the best boxing in the whole UFC and hasn’t really needed to showcase much else other than his guillotine win a couple fights back. He has been picking people apart since his debut and is looking to do so again against late replacement Dwight Grant. Grant was supposed to be fighting Calen Born on the Prelims tonight, but a late pull out has him taking a huge step up in competition. Grant is a good striker and has the advantage in the kicks, but he is not on the same level as Rodriguez pretty much everywhere else. This will be a slow destruction but I doubt we see Grant take a round.
Daniel Rodriguez by Decision -200 2 2 units
Prelims
Amanda Lemos vs Mizuki Inoue Strawweight Bout
Amanda Lemos by Decision +110 1 unit
Austin Hubbard vs Joe Solecki Lightweight Bout
Austin Hubbard by Decision -105 1 unit
Isaac Villanueva vs Jordan Wright Light Heavyweight Bout
Jordan Wright by 2nd Round TKO -120 1 unit
Carlton Minus vs Matthew Semelsberger Welterweight Bout
Carlton Minus by Decision -120 1 units
Timur Valiev vs Trevin Jones Catchweight (140 lb) Bout
Timur Valiev by Decision -600 (Not betting on this but I do not see where Trevin wins this fight.)
DraftKings Lineup:
There are only 9 fights on this card, beware of playing DFS since there are only so many possible lineups that will hit.
That is all I have for this evening of sanctioned violence. Do not blame me if these picks are bad because this card is bad and that is a casualty of war. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!