Fight night in Vegas! We are back in the tiny cage yet again for the most active few month stretch that I can remember in my UFC fandom. These blogs have taken a lot out of me, every week nearly 1500 words on why I think I can win money this time around. So far I am up a couple of units because of a few bad weeks where I didn’t stick to my guns and went down a ton. I have turned my strategy around a little bit and am more comfortable about picking favorites and have watched a lot more film to make these picks. This is going to likely be my most brief blog I have written in order to keep my sanity so let’s get going.
Black Beast has always been one of my favorite fighters, he just seems to have never tried to get all that good at MMA. Aleksei Oleinik is 43 years old and wants to do this for another 10 years, he has no chin but you better not let him catch you on the ground. Chris Weidman is my favorite fighter of all time, I don’t care about the haters. He beat Silva twice, defended his belt 2 times on top of that, and has been in a tailspin ever since. The rest of the card kinda sucks but we have violence at least!
Here are my sexy picks:
Main Card
Derrick Lewis vs Aleksei Oleinik Heavyweight Bout
Derrick Lewis has looked a lot better in his last 2 bouts. He got taken down by Blagoy a bunch but still won the bout since Blagoy could not keep him down nor do much from the top. Ilir was so tiny compared to Lewis, he couldn’t do anything he wanted to. Oleinik will be looking to wrap up Lewis and get a submission as he has done so often in his career, but this will look much more like the Walt Harris bout and he will get caught and end up taking a nap.
Derrick Lewis by 1st Round TKO -205 2 units
Omari Akhmedov vs Chris Weidman Middleweight Bout
Huge bias alert here. I love Chris Weidman and will always pull for him. His cousin was my lacrosse coach growing up, he was one of the first guys I was a huge fan of in MMA, and he is in my goddamn twitter profile. Fortunately, unlike the past few fights he has had, he is fighting a guy who doesn’t really have punching power. Weidman has the advantage nearly everywhere except for the chin in this one, he will be back on top.
Chris Weidman by Decision -145 1 unit
Darren Stewart vs Maki Pitolo Middleweight Bout
This is where the card takes a pretty steep jump into who really cares. Darren Stewart is a solid fighter but has a subpar cardio. Maki is ok, but not really anything special that I would be willing to ride with him as a dog, feel like Darren has him beat everywhere. Type of fight where Darren will win the first 2 rounds and you just hope he can make it through the third for a decision.
Darren Stewart by Decision -165 2 units
Yana Kunitskaya vs Julija Stoliarenko Bantamweight Bout
Yana is likely the better fighter in this one, better wins, more experience, and has fought for a UFC belt in her debut. That being said, Julija has insane BJJ and will catch Yana making a mistake, and wrap her up and end this thing before it gets to the judges.
Julia Stoliarenko by 2nd Round Submission +155 1 unit
Beneil Dariush vs Scott Holtzman Lightweight Bout
This one doesn’t take a genius to see. Beneil Dariush is the far better fighter here in likely every facet of the sport. Hot sauce will be able to keep pace on the feet, but if this fight makes it anywhere else, he is far outmatched. I like Holtzman a lot but this isn’t his fight to win.
Beneil Dariush by Decision -205 2 units
Prelims
Tim Means vs Laureano Staropoli Welterweight Bout
I destroyed Brunson in my last blog for being a gatekeeper and he made me eat my words and money. That sucked, but on the bright side, Tim Means old ass isn’t going to do that to me. He has lost to every above average fighter he has faced. Laureano is the next above average fighter that will make easy work of Tim Means. Staropoli’s only loss in the last 5 years was to Muslim Salikhov who is climbing his way up the weightclass as we speak (albeit with a controversial split decision in his last outing). I see this as being pretty one sided, despite Means’ reach advantage.
Laureano Staropoli by 3rd Round TKO -145 1 unit
Kevin Holland vs Joaquin Buckley Middleweight Bout
This should be a super easy win for Kevin Holland, who missed out on a payday last week because of Giles passing out backstage right before the fight. Buckley was UFC bound and is a very good prospect, but he is not on this level and will get beaten very quickly.
Kevin Holland by 1st Round Submission -550 (Probably won’t take this line, way too big)
Nasrat Haqparast vs Alexander Muñoz Lightweight Bout
Nasrat has been a mainstay for a very long time, but Munoz is a great prospect who has too much value to not take here. He is an incredible wrestler and has solid striking to start working his way up this weight class. If he wins this, I would love for the UFC to pair him up with Jordan Leavitt who just earned a contract on Tuesday.
Alexander Muñoz by Decision +185 1 unit
Andrew Sanchez vs Wellington Turman Middleweight Bout
This fight should be Andrew Sanchez vs his own gas tank. It has been his issue since he won TUF. He is able to hold his own early and either keeps it going long enough to win the fight or has nothing in the second round and gets beat badly. Wellington Turman is really only better in terms of submissions but is not a pressure fighter even though he may have a little better striking. Sanchez will control this fight on the cage and on the canvas and take a pretty boring decision.
Andrew Sanchez by Decision +115 1 unit
Gavin Tucker vs Justin Jaynes Featherweight Bout
Justin Jaynes lost me a good amount of money in his debut, coming in late notice and fucking Frank Camacho up. So now I ride with him, that was impressive as hell. Both of these guys are super interesting prospects, with Tucker having the ground advantage. It won’t matter because Justin is going to swing for the fences and put him to sleep anyway.
Justin Jaynes by 1st Round TKO EV 1 unit
Youssef Zalal vs Peter Barrett Featherweight Bout
This just comes down to Zalal having beaten better competition and losses to better competition. I do not see where Barrett can win the fight other than a lucky punch. Strategically I used to put a little on the dog in these scenarios, but I want my record to look better, so I will no longer be taking that approach.
Youssef Zalal by Decision -550 (Not touching this line)
Irwin Rivera vs Ali Al Qaisi Bantamweight Bout
Irwin Rivera looked great against Giga in his debut. He was much smaller and managed to look like he belonged with some explosive striking and power in each shot. He got out classed by a bigger and better opponent, but everyone felt his presence will be known in this division. Now here comes Ali Al Qaisi in his UFC debut to derail this slight hype train. I was ready to ride with Rivera based just on names, but after watching some film on Ali, this guy is really freaking good. He lands almost every takedown he attempts, and if he can’t he will put you in a guillotine that cranks on your neck to make you super uncomfortable or end the fight. His competition was for sure lacking, but I do not believe Rivera has faced a grappler of this magnitude yet in his whole career.
Ali Al Qaisi by 2nd Round Submission +155 1 unit
DraftKings Lineup:
I am getting pretty exhausted from these blogs every week, but fights are fights and I need to inflate my record by any means necessary. I am the most confident in this DraftKings lineup, feels like it just fits well and these guys will win. That is all i have for you this evening, as always, may luck be your lady tonight.