We are back! I have absolutely no idea why Dana took last weekend off when there was absolutely no other decent sports to watch (football), but at least I had a chance to save some money for this card! This is actually a pretty solid card top to bottom, arguably better than the McGregor PPV minus the main event. I really have absolutely no idea how Dana decides to put these cards together, but lately it seems like he just makes a well rounded main card for the fight nights and a crazy top heavy one for the PPVs. He is the near billionaire though so I will trust in his decision making.
I have changed up my gambling style a bit for this year. I put it in my last blog but I was in a bit of a rush, so I will explain it more here. I have been terrified of the juice since I started gambling, and still am! So now I am looking deeper into fight props, pretty much of how they’ll end and taking those bets with little to no juice. Sure this is how suckers bet, but when you have a -400 KO artist fighting, it’s probably a little wiser to take them -150 to win by KO, TKO, or DQ. It is hard to tell how it has been going so far since I never really put 5 units on a -400 line but as the year goes on I will keep an eye on it.
Enough of my blabbering, let’s get into the picks:
Main Card
Alistair Overeem vs. Alexander Volkov Heavyweight Bout
I went to sleep last night thinking “yea I am totally taking Volkov” then I woke up today and looked at the line. Volkov is a 2-1 favorite with comparable recent wins and a very one dimensional fighting style. Against more raw power strikers, he will keep his distance and pick you apart slowly and win on points. It is pretty boring but it has been working for him. I am yet to see a fight where Overeem has been picked apart. This guy was a kickboxing legend, has very strong grappling and submission ability, and great power in his hands. The only way Volkov should really take this is if age has really gotten to Reem, otherwise, it’s Reem’s fight to lose.
Alistair Overeem by 3rd Round TKO +168 1 unit
Cory Sandhagen vs. Frankie Edgar Bantamweight Bout
Another fight where I changed my mind this morning. I love Frankie, and if this fight was 5 years ago, I likely would be putting my mortgage on him to win. Now he is older, doesn’t use his wrestling at all, has no pop in his hands, and does not really seem to have that killer instinct he once had. Cory Sandhagen has only struggled once and it was against the title challenger who is also the best wrestler/submission artist in the division. Cory will keep this fight at a distance and land all the shots he needs to to get his decision win. Frankie has a tank and a chin, so this will go the distance, and I will be taking that to the bank.
Cory Sandhagen by Decision +105 1 unit (Actual prop line)
Michael Johnson vs. Clay Guida Lightweight Bout
These guys fucking suck. Michael Johnson has lost me money like 3 fights in a row. “Oh no, no shot he gets knocked the fuck out again by an average opponent” then bam he gets KOd by an average opponent. This dude has beaten top of the division opponents! He is lightweight Chris Weidman but without the belt. That being said, Clay Guida is straight booty. He is going to try to grapple but he’s so old and terrible it just won’t work. I really do think MJ takes this one, but I will not bet on him, so I will take the under and hope someone goes to sleep.
Michael Johnson by 2nd Round TKO -210 (Going to take under 2.5 +180 1 unit)
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Manel Kape Flyweight Bout
This is one of the more underrated matchups on the whole card. Pantoja probably would be looking at a title shot right now if he was on the right end of a decision against Askar Askarov, instead he is the underdog against a newcomer out of Rizin. He has good grappling, decent striking, and like everyone in this division, a good gas tank. Manel Kape has been wrecking some Rizin competition, but to come into the UFC as the slight favorite with a loss against a common opponent that Pantoja beat, I have to ride with the man already in town.
Alexandre Pantoja by Decision -105 1 unit
Carlos Diego Ferreira vs. Beneil Dariush Lightweight Bout
Pretty neat rematch here. Beneil took the UD in the first bout back in 2014 and both guys have been on a nice tear ever since. Ferreira has only one loss since then, vs the should be champion Dustin Poirier. Dariush has dropped 3, all to very good opponents and has had a larger volume of fights since. Both of these guys have improved tremendously since the first bout. I call the improvements a wash and see a similar fight in this one. Dariush controls the pace and the grappling exchanges and gets his decision win.
Beneil Dariush by Decision -120 2 units
Prelims
Mike Rodríguez vs. Danilo Marques Light Heavyweight Bout
Danilo Marques by 2nd Round Submission +195 1 unit
Devonte Smith vs. Justin Jaynes Catchweight (160 lb) Bout
I usually don’t write about my Prelims because I am always strapped for time, but I feel like I need to explain this. I have had a theory about 2 lighter KO artists when they fight each other. Both of these guys sleep people in the first round often. Both guys have also been slept in the first round recently. They are going to come in here, weary of each others’ power and feel out the pace for a little. They want to show what else they can do, and losses could be very detrimental to their trajectory. Take the over.
Devonte Smith by 2nd Round TKO -340 (Call me stupid but I am taking over 1.5 rds +155 1 unit)
Karol Rosa vs. Joselyne Edwards Bantamweight Bout
Joselyne Edwards by Decision +195 1 unit
Molly McCann vs. Lara Procópio Flyweight Bout
Meatball McCann by Decision -127 1 unit
Seung Woo Choi vs. Youssef Zalal Featherweight Bout
Youssef Zalal by Decision +115 1 unit (actual prop line)
Timur Valiev vs. Martin Day Featherweight Bout
Timur Valiev by 1st Round TKO -420 (going to take under 2.5 rds -115 1 unit)
Ode’ Osbourne vs. Jerome Rivera Featherweight Bout
I fucking despise how Jerome Rivera fights.
Ode Osbourne by Decision -210 2 units
DraftKings Lineup:
Don’t judge me taking Michael Johnson, value was too good.
That is all I have for you this evening. I am pretty confident in these picks and think I will make an unfathomable amount of money. Or I won’t be able to bet on the Super Bowl tomorrow, whichever is fine. This is going to be a very entertaining card, who cares if we really win any money. I’ll leave it at that, as always, may luck be your lady tonight!