I am running super late with my picks because of other gambling goings ins the world but check out my brief analysis down below.
Main Card
Marlon Moraes vs Cory Sandhagen Bantamweight Bout
This is a crazy good matchup for the future of the bantamweight division. You normally don’t see these number 2 contender bouts anymore with Dana just doing whatever he thinks might be entertaining. Now this doesn’t mean that whoever wins gets a title shot after Aljo, but it makes a very good case that no one else is near worthy. Looking at the line immediately, it doesn’t make much sense to me. Maybe it is because it is a 5 round bout and we have seen Moraes fall flat after the halfway mark in the 2nd, but Sandhagen has no business being the favorite. Moraes has the most power in this whole weight class now that lineker is gone, and is a very good grappler to boot. Sandhagen is a great striker but doesn’t have much power behind anything and do not believe his reach advantage will be enough to do anything. Take Moraes here but if it goes to the 3rd or later, start getting nervous.
Marlon Moraes by 2nd Round TKO +120 1 unit
Edson Barboza vs Makwan Amirkhani Featherweight Bout
I went back and forth on this a lot. Makwan being +210 underdog seems like a pretty douchey move by the book. And for the last bet, was pretty much why I took it. The thing is, that Makwan usually has a big strength advantage over his opponents as he is a very big featherweight. He is fighting a guy that was a very successful lightweight who has been on a bad side of 2 close split decisions (I think he may have won both of those). I see what the book is thinking here and I agree, Edson wants this win and should be able to keep this standing to avoid the elite grappling that Makwan is able to bring out on occasion.
Edson Barboza by Decision -260 2 units
Ben Rothwell vs Marcin Tybura Heavyweight Bout
Don’t want to spend too much of my time talking about this shitty fight. Marcin likes to take down guys and grind out a decision. He will not be able to do this against Ben. He will gas out, and Ben will gas out, and Ben will end up on top after a bad takedown attempt and strike to a win.
Ben Rothwell by 3rd Round TKO -145 1 unit
Markus Perez vs Dricus du Plessis Middleweight Bout
This one was interesting and something I saw a bit of value in. You have 2 solid fighters looking to climb the UFC rankings but need to do a lot to get noticed. Dricus has done very well outside of the UFC seemingly putting everyone into a guillotine that he can. He is coming in with an ok amount of hype which is why I think the book kinda went his way. Perez has some recent losses under his belt, but all to actually solid competition except for Eryk Anders who breaks my heart over and over again. If he can fight his fight and grapple, Perez takes this fight.
Markus Perez by Decision +140 1 unit
Tom Aspinall vs Alan Baudot Heavyweight Bout
Tom Aspinall is a guy they are grooming to be a contender in this weight class. An issue the UFC has had in the past is giving these guys elite competition way too quick and the hype train derails. Dana isn’t making that mistake here and gave him a nice tomato can to earn an easy win against that also has a solid record so people won’t complain.
Tom Aspinall by 1st Round TKO -647 (likely for DraftKings purposes, don’t bet on this)
Youssef Zalal vs llia Topuria Featherweight Bout
Youssef has been great in the UFC, handling all the competition that has come his way with relative ease. He fights for decisions though and that has bored me. With a line this close, I am going with a guy that finishes his fights. I am always a fan of new talent coming in, and this is no tomato can, considering the level of fight they are giving him coming in after demolishing his previous banners talent. Give me the newcomer and make it gross.
Ilia Topuria by 2nd Round TKO +125 1 unit
Prelims
Tom Breese vs KB Bhullar Middleweight Bout
KB Bhullar by Decision +195 1 unit
Chris Daukaus vs Rodrigo Nascimento Heavyweight Bout
Rodrigo Nascimento by 2nd Round Submission -255 3 units
Impa Kasanganay vs Joaquin Buckley Middleweight Bout
Impa Kasanganay by Decision -250 3 units
Ali AlQaisi vs Tony Kelley Bantamweight Bout
Tony Kelley by Decision -215 2 units
Giga Chikadze vs Omar Morales Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze by Decision +150 1 unit
Tracy Cortez vs Stephanie Egger Bantamweight Bout
Tracy Cortez by Decision -165 2 units
Bruno Silva vs Tagir Ulanbekov Flyweight Bout
Tagir Ulanbekov by 2nd Round Submission -515 (possibly for DraftKings, don’t take this bet)
DraftKings Lineup:
That is all I have for you folks this evening. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!