Writing this blog after a pretty long night so bear with me, but it’s fight night! Violence is in the air and we have a somewhat decent overpriced PPV this evening capped off with a title fight we have all been waiting for. I like too many underdogs on this card for things to go well betting wise but I will try to stay optimistic until I can’t anymore. We have cartoon character DDP vs the juggernaut Khamzat Chimaev, Aaron Pico makes his UFC debut against Lerone Murphy, Carlos Prates will try to get back into the win column against Geoff Neal, Jared Cannonier looks to prove age is just a number against MVP, and Kai Asakura returns and hopes to show he can fight in an octagon against Tim Elliot. Enough blabbering, let’s get into these picks already.
Main Card
Dricus du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev Middleweight Championship Bout
Khamzat likely wins this fight. He is an absolute monster, destroying everyone he has fought that isn’t named Gilbert Burns. He is stronger than everyone, has better wrestling than everyone, and is more ruthless than everyone. Unfortunately for Khamzat he is fighting DDP who makes no sense ever. I have bet against Dricus in every fight he has ever had in the UFC (I think and I am not going back to check) and I have been wrong every single time. The dude is the least skilled, least technical, least strategic fighter I have ever seen with a belt yet he always finds a way to win. This line is a bit inflated, I don’t see Khamzat coming in and destroying him like he did to Whittaker, and we haven’t seen Khamzat in later rounds since that Burns fight. I am willing to take the 2-1 money on the chance that DDP survives the early storm and uses his crazy luck to win this one in the later rounds.
Dricus du Plessis by Decision +215 1 unit
Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico Featherweight Bout
Aaron Pico sucks. He is one of the few Bellator fighters I watched consistently thinking he would eventually put it all together and I guess we never really saw if he did. He ended his Bellator run with 3 straight wins over tomato cans and firefighters and now is somehow a favorite over an undefeated fighter with 8 straight UFC wins. Makes absolutely no sense so I am putting the house on Lerone. This can totally backfire and maybe Pico is a lot better than I am giving him credit for, but I will not miss the opportunity to get rich on this one.
Lerone Murphy by Decision +154 2 units
Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates Welterweight Bout
This was a tough one to pick. I have gone for 2 dogs in a row at the top of the card, do I have the balls to go with a 3rd? Yes I do. Carlos Prates has had a meteoric rise in the UFC, destroying everyone he has faced, until he got to Ian Garry. He had the opportunity to take Garry out of the fight and blew it. Geoff Neal is a more durable fighter than Garry and has the tools to neutralize Prates pressure. I see Prates going for broke early and not being able to land like he normally does and gassing out, then Neal comes in and just batters him with his heavy hands until he goes to sleep. Let’s keep capitalizing on these dogs.
Geoff Neal by 3rd Round TKO +180 1 unit
Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page Middleweight Bout
I really wanted to go for 4 straight dogs here but couldn’t bring myself to do it. I am a big Cannonier fan, and cheer for him in almost every fight. I am a bigger MVP fan. Dude has been one of the most fun watches in MMA for over half a decade. His striking is so crisp, his only loss in the UFC was to a grapple merchant, Ian Garry. Sure I used Ian Garry as a reason Prates is going to lose in the pick before this, but for my narrative it doesn’t matter here. Cannonier is 41 years old, he is slow, and all he will really be able to do is hold MVP up against the cage. MVP will out strike him and win this on points without a doubt, Cannonier won’t be able to touch him.
Michael Page by Decision (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -135 1 unit
Tim Elliott vs. Kai Asakura Flyweight Bout
This is a pretty interesting fight and I am happy Tim Elliot gets onto a PPV card. Elliott has consistently performed well in big fights like this, oftentimes taking the steam out of big prospects. Asakura looked like he may be one of the best flyweights in the world and wasn’t even in the UFC, that is pretty tough to do in lesser promotions. Then he fought Pantoja and got destroyed. I am giving him the benefit of the doubt that he had a hard time adjusting to an octagon from always having fought in a ring at Rizin. Tim Elliott will have crazy grappling exchanges early but Asakura will be able to fend them off and take the last 2 rounds with ease. Got to be Kai here.
Kai Asakura by Decision (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -110 1 unit
Prelims
Baysangur Susurkaev vs. Eric Nolan Middleweight Bout
Baysangur by 1st Round TKO (Prop Line) -110 1 unit
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk Middleweight Bout
Michal Oleksiejczuk by 1st Round TKO (Win in Rds 1-2) -110 1 unit
Jéssica Andrade vs. Loopy Godinez Women’s Strawweight Bout
Jessica Andrade by Decision +120 1 unit
Chase Hooper vs. Alexander Hernandez Lightweight Bout
Chase Hooper by 2nd Round Submission (Prop Sub Line) +150 1 unit
Early Prelims
Edson Barboza vs. Drakkar Klose Lightweight Bout
Drakkar Klose by Decision +110 1 unit
Karine Silva vs. Dione Barbosa Women’s Flyweight Bout
Dione Barbosa by Decision +170 1 unit
Alibi Idiris vs. Joseph Morales Flyweight Bout
Alibi Idiris by Decision (Win in Rd 3 or Decision) -135 1 unit
DraftKings Lineup:
That is all I have for you on this beautiful day of fights. I have my wife’s grandma’s 90th birthday party tonight so my tweeting likely won’t start until the PPVs or late prelims. I will try to get any parlays I take up for accountability purposes, especially since I have been getting creamed by the non PPV cards. Remember to gamble responsibly and stick to your units or things can get messy. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!