We have violence tonight! A pretty solid card top to bottom with some of the most even betting lines I have seen for any card all year. I only have one bet where I am even taking a prop line (for now) everything else is under the -200 mark which is pretty much where I stop taking straight up. Other than the gambling, we finally have the lightweight belt finding a home after it was relinquished by Khabib. Michael Chandler was a killer in Bellator, but he aged there and is fighting a young hungry Charles Oliveira. Tony Ferguson is back against Beneil Dariush, likely to put the winner in the top 4 of the rankings. The rest of the fights are pretty low stakes but fun. Shane Burgos vs Edson Barboza has all the makings to be a fight of the year candidate. So let’s get into these picks and win some money.
Main Card
Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler Lightweight Championship Bout
This is a really tough one for me. If this wasn’t a title fight I probably would take a chance on Chandler as the slight dog on the chance he lands that shot that puts Do Bronx to sleep. Oliveira has the grappling advantage, even though Chandler is a very good wrestler he never uses it, Oliveira has the reach advantage, and Oliveira just fights smarter. This is pretty much a 5 round fight of a guy who’s only path to victory is a KO punch vs a methodical BJJ artist with great takedowns and solid standup. I do not believe that beating Dan Hooker should get you title shots, but Chandler has done enough outside of the UFC that I guess he can take a chance. I see this fight being more boring than we anticipate with Oliveira keeping distance and taking advantage of takedown openings.
Charles Oliveira by 4th Round Submission -150 2 units
Tony Ferguson vs. Beneil Dariush Lightweight Bout
This is a matchup made by the MMA gods themselves. These 2 dudes love to stand and bang and are really freaking good at it. This will not go to the ground, this will not be a lot of sizing up, this will be 2 men going to war for the entertainment of a bunch of degenerate fans. Beneil is on an incredible tear, winning 6 straight against some top quality fighters. Only 2 of those wins even went to decision with his most recent being a split decision over a very dangerous Diego Ferreira. Tony is on a bit of a skid, he got fucked up by Gaethje, dominated by Oliveira, and robbed of his true glory of getting a shot at Khabib. I can’t imagine a world where Tony takes all of this adversity and doesn’t go back to the gym and figure out everything wrong with his game and come back to murder. Beneil is very good, but Tony is one of the GOATs and I will absolutely take him as an underdog nearly 100% of the time.
Tony Ferguson by 2nd Round TKO +140 1 unit
Matt Schnell vs. Rogério Bontorin Bantamweight Bout
Rogerio Bontorin is on a 2 fight skid against 2 top notch fighters in bantamweight (although Ray Borg has a lot of personal stuff that got him released) and is looking to bounce back against Matt Schnell. Schnell has been a bit overrated in my opinion, his last fight was good, stifling Tyson Nam and not letting him get that KO blow, but I think Bontorin has a lot more tools and is dangerous anywhere. Very excited for this one and likely am only going for Bontorin because of the value of his betting line, if this fight was closer to even I’d have to reevaluate.
Rogerio Bontorin by Decision +140 1 unit
Katlyn Chookagian vs. Viviane Araújo Flyweight Bout
Not too much to say here, not exactly sure how this made it to the main card but I see a lot of good value here. Chookagian is the much better fighter here and has a large height and reach advantage. She will dominate this one pretty easily as long as Araujo doesn’t land a lucky shot or sneak a submission.
Katlyn Chookagian by Decision -140 2 units
Shane Burgos vs. Edson Barboza Featherweight Bout
This was the toughest fight for me to pick. I had very high hopes for Edson at featherweight, he has such high level striking and such terrifying leg kicks, I figured if he could make 145 he’d be unstoppable. After watching 2 fights of his at this weight, he has definitely lost a lot of pace and strength he had at 155. His volume of striking is way lower and his opponents seem stronger because they aren’t as depleted from the cut. Shane Burgos is always ready for war, he is going to come in here and just push forward with non stop striking and will likely just frustrate Edson with the pressure. Barboza’s best shot is to get those leg kicks going to slow Shane down, but if they aren’t landing early its Burgos’ fight to lose.
Shane Burgos by Decision -147 1 unit
Prelims
Ronaldo Souza vs. André Muniz Middleweight Bout
Ronaldo Souza is so damn old. He got finished while on top against Kevin Holland, and he had a huge size advantage there. Andre Muniz is young and hungry and the same size as Souza. I really don’t think Jacare has much left in the tank and I see this being tough to watch with a big early finish.
Andre Muniz by 1st Round TKO +110 1 unit
Lando Vannata vs. Mike Grundy Featherweight Bout
Mike Grundy by Decision -125 1 unit
Andrea Lee vs. Antonina Shevchenko Flyweight Bout
Antonina Shevchenko by Decision -120 1 unit
Jordan Wright vs. Jamie Pickett Middleweight Bout
Jordan Wright by 2nd Round TKO -115 1 unit
Early prelims
Gina Mazany vs. Priscila Cachoeira Flyweight Bout
Gina Mazany by Decision -190 2 units
Kevin Aguilar vs. Tucker Lutz Featherweight Bout
Tucker Lutz by 1st Round TKO -120 1 unit
Christos Giagos vs. Sean Soriano Lightweight Bout
Christos Giagos by Decision +110 (Prop Line) 1 unit
DraftKings Lineup:
That’s all I have for this night of fights. I have been on an insane tear the last month in all gambling, up 40 units depending on what I consider my unit on a given night (I drunkenly put 10 units on Jiri against Reyes). Let’s keep the heater going and win some more cash tonight. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!