THREE TITLE FIGHTS. There is nothing better than a PPV with 3 title fights, one of which should be really competitive. A lot of these lines are pretty lopsided which sucks, but there is money to be made and I will be messing around with the prop lines an awful lot. 13 fights and no cancellations at the time this blog was written, going into this already up some from some smart PFL betting that I wish I shared with everyone. I have a lot of underdogs here that should have a very good chance of pulling off the upset and lining our fat pockets. Rose, and Lionheart are being dangerously disrespected for my book’s sake. I am planning on eviscerating my bookie this week and every week until sportsbooks are actually legal in New York.
Let’s get into these picks:
Main Card
Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal Welterweight Championship Bout
This fight shouldn’t even be happening. When Kamaru absolutely obliterated Woodley with a 50-45 massacre, Woodley didn’t get a rematch and Woodley was champion. Masvidal landed half the amount of strikes as Usman, even if Usman’s did absolutely no damage. Jorge is not an elite fighter. He has a very lucky KO against a guy who had one UFC win and was on the decline and one over Darren Till that was a decent win but he was killed by that weight cut. He got picked apart by Wonderboy, and lost a split decision to Maia who pretty much only gets sub wins. If you have had to convince yourself that Jorge is going to win, you are just delusional.
Kamaru Usman by Decision (Prop Line) -134 2 units
Weili Zhang vs. Rose Namajunas Strawweight Championship Bout
Look, I like Weili, she is so nice, a very good fighter, and is bringing a billion fans to the sport and promotion. That being said, I thought she lost to Joanna, she has had a very easy rise to the top. This line is super disrespectful to Rose who only lost to Andrade because she got dropped on her head. She is here and motivated to stop communism and take what is rightfully hers.
Rose Namajunas by Decision +170 1 unit
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jéssica Andrade Flyweight Championship Bout
Cmon everyone. If you think Andrade has a shot in hell of winning this fight then you are more delusional than the Masvidal fans. Andrade has literally a puncher’s chance in this one and I don’t even know if she has that. Shevchenko arguably beat Amanda Nunes, do you think that Andrade, who got pieced up by Joanna is going to be able to dethrone her? This one I am just going for Valentina to win inside the distance which I feel pretty comfortable with.
Valentina Shevchenko by 3rd Round TKO (Prop Line) +180
Uriah Hall vs. Chris Weidman Middleweight Bout
This is a very biased pick. I will always ride with Chris Weidman so everything I say has heavy bias behind it. Chris’ chin has deteriorated over the years but his wrestling has not. Uriah has the power to end any fight with one shot, but took nearly the whole fight to do that against an old Silva. Uriah is a very hesitant fighter and will likely be down 2 rounds going into the 3rd when he would then start throwing and I do not see him having enough left in the tank to do it. Chris likely will falter in his climb back to a title shot, but I do not see it happening in this one.
Chris Weidman by decision -140 1 unit
Anthony Smith vs. Jimmy Crute Light Heavyweight Bout
Anthony Smith has been pretty rough lately, getting beaten by a 42 year old, and getting absolutely ragdolled by Rakic. I thought he was going to lose against Clark and just didn’t have what it takes to fight against 205ers anymore but he showed a ton of improvement. He wrestled really well, didn’t gas himself out, and controlled the whole fight. Jimmy Crute has been a very good young prospect with heavy hands and phenomenal grappling, but he got stifled by Misha Cirkunov, I think Lionheart is a high enough level to take this one.
Anthony Smith by 2nd Round TKO +175 1 unit
Prelims
Alex Oliveira vs. Randy Brown Welterweight Bout
Randy Brown by 3rd Round TKO -140 1 unit
Dwight Grant vs. Stefan Sekulić Welterweight Bout
Stefan Sekulic by 2nd Round Submission +170 1 unit
Karl Roberson vs. Brendan Allen Middleweight Bout
Brendan Allen by Decision -157 2 units
Patrick Sabatini vs. Tristan Connelly Featherweight Bout
Patrick Sabatini by 1st Round Submission (Finish Prop Line) +245 1 unit
Early Prelims
Danaa Batgerel vs. Kevin Natividad Bantamweight Bout
Danaa Batgerel by 2nd Round TKO (Prop Line) +250 1 unit
Kazula Vargas vs. Zhu Rong Lightweight Bout
Zhu Rong by 3rd Round TKO (Taking over 1.5 Rds -180 2 units)
Qileng Aori vs. Jeff Molina Flyweight Bout
Jeff Molina by Decision -115 1 unit
Na Liang vs. Ariane Carnelossi Strawweight Bout
Na Liang by 2nd Round Submission +180 1 unit
DraftKings Lineup:
That is all I have for you this fight night. Stick to your units and don’t be scared to get creative with your bets. Don’t be scared to take those props on how it ends, after much analysis I have won more money doing that then just taking the juice on way too big of favorites. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!