We are here for the best UFC card of the year and I am declaring that veryyyy early. We have 3 title fights that are actually good title fights (Kind of). Now I can rant all day about how much I hate double champ fights because it stalls 2 divisions, but the case against me is fighting right before that. Amanda Nunes fights suck only because she is so much better than every woman in the UFC, so I can’t really say her fights suck. My life will be marginally better if Jan shuts up Izzy. Aljo has the opportunity to get Long Island its 3rd champion since Serra and Weidman. This is just such a beautiful card top to bottom I cannot contain my excitement.
We potentially have the next Khabib fighting as the last non title fight on the card. We have a LHW fight to bring someone into the title picture. We have one of the bantamweight GOATs as the FEATURED PRELIM. Even the early prelims have some incredible matchups. Dana went all out for this one, and I thank him tremendously. I have a good feeling about my money for this card, the books don’t even know what’s coming. Ok no more stalling, here are my picks for this evenings violence:
Main Card
Jan Błachowicz vs. Israel Adesanya Light Heavyweight Championship Bout
What an interesting matchup of 2 guys no one really wanted to fight. This should have been Jones vs Izzy, but I feel like Izzy just did this to piss off Jones even more. All the talk before this matchup has been about Izzy. It seems like people are already draping that belt around his skinny clown waist before the fight has even happened. Izzy absolutely mauled Costa in his last bout, and disposed of Romero in an easy weird one before that. In people’s minds this shows he has already done away with some big boys so this big boy should be no issue. I am sure Jan is happy they think that too. Jan has been on an absolute tear since dropping one to Santos, disposing of Corey Anderson, and Dominick Reyes without much issue, and took out 2 middleweights that came up in Luke Rockhold, and Jacare Souza. He has reinvented himself with much better grappling and has that same unbelievable Polish Power. I see Jan trapping Izzy against the cage a lot until he slows down then starts to land shots clean until it is too much for that boy to handle.
Jan Blachowicz by 3rd Round TKO +210 1 unit
Amanda Nunes vs. Megan Anderson Featherweight Championship Bout
What can I even say here? Like take Megan +675 because the odds are nuts, but you can also just light your money on fire or donate it to charity. Amanda Nunes is the GOAT and Megan Anderson will not be the one to end her reign, cmon now.
Amanda Nunes by 4th Round TKO -1050 (Taking over 1.5 rds -145 3 units)
Petr Yan vs. Aljamain Sterling Bantamweight Bout
This is the best matchup on the whole card IMO. Petr Yan has the best hands in this weight class by far and away. Aljamain Sterling is the best wrestler in this weight class by far and away. Now these 2 finally meet in a title clash that should give us a definitive answer to all of our questions. Other than Masvidal vs Askren, I feel like we often get the same outcome when it comes to high level wrestler vs high level striker. Yan has had pretty great wrestling defense so far, but all he has really seen is an old Faber. Aljamain can put the pressure on you until you crumble and he gets you on the ground, and he can sub you anywhere too. Yan’s only shot in my eyes is a KO, so I am going to go with the guy who has more ways to win this.
Aljamain Sterling by Decision +125 1 unit
Islam Makhachev vs. Drew Dober Lightweight Bout
Man do I really want to take Drew Dober because he’s electric, but where does he win? Islam is a better striker. Islam is a better Grappler. Islam has better defense. Dober would need to catch Islam to win this and like I said before, I want to go with the guy who has more ways to win. Taking this fight to go to Islam by decision because the line is a lot better.
Islam Makhachev by Decision -105 1 unit (Prop Line)
Thiago Santos vs. Aleksandar Rakić Light Heavyweight Bout
Thiago has lost all my fanhood after his last performance. The man looked like he almost beat Jones if it weren’t for his torn ACLs, then puts on one of the worst performances I have ever seen vs a 42 year old Glover Teixeira. Rakic has been on a tear, ragdolling and beating up anyone that comes his way, other than a horrible split decision loss to Volkan that head everyone scratching their heads. I see this being pretty similar to Thiago’s last fight, Rakic clinches him and takes him to the ground and pounds him into submission.
Aleksandar Rakic by 3rd Round TKO -172 2 units
Prelims
Dominick Cruz vs. Casey Kenney Bantamweight Bout
Throw some respect on my man’s name. Dominick Cruz is annoying as fuck when it comes to fight frequency, but he is one of the best bantomweights of all time. His only losses are to champions, and he is one of the toughest fighters to strike with and take down. Casey Kenney has been great, definitely exceeding my expectations. Honestly if Kenney was an underdog there’s a solid chance I may have taken him, but as a favorite against a level of competition he has never faced, I am going with the old head.
Dominick Cruz by Decision +110 1 unit
Song Yadong vs. Kyler Phillips Bantamweight Bout
Song Yadong has been on the right side of some pretty close decisions as of late. He is at one of the best gyms in the country, is only 23 years old, and has absolute dynamite in his tiny 135 lb hands. Kyler Phillips has beat up some nobodies lately, but this will be way too big of a jump in competition for him to handle. Song will stay calm and composed until he lands that monster to put Kyler to sleep.
Song Yadong by 2nd Round TKO -170 2 units
Joseph Benavidez vs. Askar Askarov Bantamweight Bout
Joey B is arguably one of the best fighters ever to not win the big thing. He has had 3 chances so he is completely out of excuses. He is up against a guy who probably would be the next in line for a shot if he didn’t take this fight at all. Askar is an insane grappler and took Moreno to a draw in an awesome fight. While I believe Askar may have the takedown advantage, Joey B can put him in more precarious positions with his BJJ that will give him the more dominant positions.
Joseph Benavidez by Decision +125 1 unit
Rogério Bontorin vs. Kai Kara-France Flyweight Bout
If no one else will say it, I guess it’s up to me. Kai Kara-France is incredibly overrated. This guy is always getting hyped up and pretty much never performs. Ok not never but 2 out of his last 3 against top competition he has fallen flat. Rogerio has the BJJ advantage while the grappling advantage is a wash, and he has heavier strikes. The line is really close here, but I could see Rogerio making a climb to the top with his only UFC loss coming against a former flyweight challenger that had to move up because of weight cutting issues.
Rogerio Bontorin by 3rd Round Submission +115 1 unit
Early Prelims
Tim Elliott vs. Jordan Espinosa Flyweight Bout
Tim Elliott by 1st Round Submission -125 1 unit
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Carlos Ulberg Light Heavyweight Bout
Kennedy Nzechukwu by 2nd Round TKO +205 1 unit
Sean Brady vs. Jake Matthews Welterweight Bout
Sean Brady by Decision +125 1 unit (Prop Line)
Lívia Renata Souza vs. Amanda Lemos Strawweight Bout
Livia Renata Souza by Decision +185 .5 unit
Uroš Medić vs. Aalon Cruz Lightweight Bout
Uros Medic by 1st Round TKO -170 2 units
Mario Bautista vs. Trevin Jones Bantamweight Bout
Mario Bautista by 2nd Round TKO -235 (Taking under 2.5 Rds +150 1 unit)
DraftKings Lineup:
Well that wraps things for me this evening. I took way too long to write this, 15 fights is soooo goddamn many. Going to make a point to stick to my units tonight and not do anything stupid like I have done every fight card this year so far. This also happens to be the first fight night that I will be sober for. Feeling good about my choices and might even drink a little juice tonight. That’s all I got for you, as always, may luck be your lady tonight!