Jake’s Punch Lines UFC 251 FIGHT ISLAND

UF-SEA is here on Fight Island!!!!! I did not think this would actually happen to be honest. So many different variables had to come together, fighters from all over the globe had to find their way to a fake island in the Middle East, and no athletic commission could come in and stop it. With all of that in the way Dana White and the UFC managed to still pull it off. 3 title fights. Strawweight Number 1 contender fight. 1 of the most attractive fighters of all time. Also Paige VanZant is fighting too. The prelims aren’t all that strong, but with a Main Card like this who gives a shit.

Usman vs Burns was a little too good to be true, that fight was a bit closer in my eyes than Masvidal vs Usman, but this is what the people wanted the whole entire time. Volkanovski vs Holloway 2 was destined to happen, I wish Holloway had a full camp but there is no way in hell he hasn’t been training for this specific fight the entire time in between. Petr Yan vs Jose Aldo is not the Bantamweight Title fight I expected to see but it has a true contender and a legend of the sport in what should be an incredible striking clinic. Andrade vs Rose was an all time shocker for me, I did not think there was a woman out there that could beat Rose at the moment, then one slam changes everything. This is just such an incredible PPV I don’t know what to even say. 

Let’s get into these picks: 

Main Card

Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal Welterweight Championship Bout

Kamaru Usman is a dominant force in that octagon and has looked incredible in his 2 title bouts so far. He absolutely shut down Woodley in an incredibly lopsided affair, then TKO’d Colby Cuntington (That was a clean TKO, no way he was going to recover, back off) in his first defense. He was going to come in and fight the super captivating, former training partner in Gilbert Burns, but due to testing positive had to pull out from the bout. I was ready to give Burns a very fair shot in this one and there is a decent chance I would have picked him. He is dangerous standing up and on the ground, and has proved in his welterweight streak he absolutely belonged in this bout.

Jorge Masvidal played savior for this one, and surely looks the part. This was thought to be his fight for quite some time after his demolitions of Till, Askren, and Nate Diaz back to back to back. The big issue I have with this gentleman, is that the only win he had that should have had him near this conversation was Till and even then he was coming off that devastating title loss and did not have his head right. He got picked apart by Wonderboy and lost a split decision to Demian Maia who pretty much everyone at the top has demolished. He is a super entertaining fight and the BMF stuff was all very fun, but this is the top of the top and he has no business here. This would honestly be one of the more shocking outcomes I have witnessed since Weidman Silva. That being said, Usman all the way, like him or not.

Kamaru Usman by Decision -265 3 units

Alexander Volkanovski vs Max Holloway Featherweight Championship Bout

I will start this off by saying something very stupid. There is absolutely no outward reason on why I should be picking Max Holloway here. He had his camp over Zoom, he lost pretty handedly last time, and Volkanovski has had nearly all of his training partners for his whole camp. I am making this pick with my gut, ride with me if you want, fade me if you are smart, but Holloway is keeping secrets and I fucking know it. The adjustments he has to make aren’t astronomical to fight a better fight, and this is the only fight he has had to prepare for this whole time. I want him to win and refuse to be on the wrong side of history.

Max Holloway by Decision +165 1 unit

Petr Yan vs José Aldo Bantamweight Championship Bout

Petr Yan has come into the UFC like a freight train. Gaining a ton of steam putting on boxing clinics against everyone he has faced. 6 straight wins to start his promotional career is what Dana likes to see. His latest win was a close decision win over Jimmie Rivera (I may be biased as he was my trainer for 2 years) and has now waited until he was handed a shot at the vacant belt. 

Jose Aldo is arguably the greatest 145 champion of all time, going 5 years without losing the belt until some Irish dude came in and beat him, I forget his name. Since then Aldo has only lost to Max Holloway (twice), Volkanovski, and had a controversial split decision loss to Marlon Moraes. That’s 2 champions and the number 1 contender of his new division. After seeing that fight and truly believing he won, and Yan having not faced anyone in the current top 8, Aldo is just way too good of value at nearly a 2-1 dog. It comes down to him being the better bet, Yan is a little younger and probably hungrier, but at -225 that is just not wise.

Jose Aldo by 5th Round TKO +170 1 unit

Jéssica Andrade vs Rose Namajunas Strawweight Bout

Rose Namajunas was beating Jessica Andrade pretty handedly before committing to a submission and getting slammed on her goddamn head. She landed head strikes at will and was pretty much only taking leg kicks that weren’t doing too much. Rose was the best 115er in the world and that will be showcased again. Only way Andrade wins this is if she gets lucky again.

Rose Namajunas by Decision -215 2 units

Amanda Ribas vs Paige VanZant Flyweight Bout

Fuck this fight. It pisses me off. Amanda Ribas is so much better than Paige. But you are going to make the line -850??? How am I supposed to bet on that shit? Stay away from this one, PVZ is not good but not bad enough that she has 0 shot. Do not bridge jump for this line, or ever really on any woman not named Nunes or Schevchenko. AVOID.

Amanda Ribas by Decision – 850 (don’t bet on this shit unless you wanna put 5 on PVZ as a fuck it why not)

Prelims

Volkan Oezdemir vs Jiří Procházka Light Heavyweight Bout

This one had me back and forth a few times. I was watching Jiri’s Rizin fights and he looked really damn good. He is monstrous in size and has devastating power in those hands. Then I got to his King Mo fight. He managed to win that rematch in the 3rd, but he was gassing out and took a ton of leg kicks. This fight is an enormous jump in talent for him and will be very interesting to see how he can handle this competition.

I thought Volkan lost to Rakic, that decision really shocked me. I thought Volkan beat Reyes, that decision really shocked me. Volkan’s leg kicks are what got him a split decision win, Rakic’s legs looked like they had taken a baseball bat for 15 minutes. He looked beefy as hell on that scale, the best he has ever looked. He has a chin for days, and an incredibly high fight IQ. I do not think Jiri is going to be able to land the shot that knocks Volkan out, and Volkan will play the smart fight and take this with the judges.

Volkan Oezdemir by Decision -155 1 unit

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs Muslim Salikhov Welterweight Bout

These guys are both super fun to watch and this is probably the best matchup on the whole card in terms of ability. Neither guy has had too many losses in the last few years, and are looking at cracking the top 15. Dos Santos is coming off of a decision win, bouncing back after being TKO’d by Li Jingliang. Before that bout he rattled off 7 straight wins after a split decision loss in his debut. 

Muslim Salikhov only has 2 losses in his entire career, his most recent coming at the hands of Alex Garcia. Garcia aggressively wanted to take things to the ground and succeeded, then got the submission. Muslim is one of the best strikers in this entire weightclass, but his ground game needed to evolve for him to make it to the next level. He has dominated his last 3 opponents with 2 KOs, and is ready to show he has what it takes to beat anyone. This fight will stay on the feat and Muslim will win that battle 10 outta 10.

Muslin Salikhov by 2nd Round TKO -140 1 unit

Makwan Amirkhani vs Danny Henry Featherweight Bout

Alright this fight is also super close. The line really confuses me because on paper, these guys aren’t that far apart in ability. Makwan for sure has the wrestling advantage, which may be bigger than Henry’s striking advantage (if he has one with Makwan’s boxing career) but the line just confuses me. Henry taking the loss on the ground to Ige in his last bout definitely is pushing me towards Makwan. To be honest, Makwan also fit really well into my DraftKings lineup, coupled with his wrestling, I have to take him here.

Makwan Amirkhani by Decision -210 2 units

Leonardo Santos vs Roman Bogatov Lightweight Bout

Leonardo Santos is 40 fucking years old. You could have told me he is 25, dude is looking great. He took a lengthy gap before coming back last year and KOing Stevie Ray. Back in 2015 this dude took out Kevin Lee and Anthony Rocco Martin which would normally propel anyone to the top. Injuries held him back and now he is trying to climb back to the top against a Russian newcomer.

Roman Bogatov is an undefeated M-1 start coming in to make a name for himself in the UFC. He has dominated everyone that has come in his path so far, but who knows how good that Russian competition really is compared to the big league. If this fight was just 2-3 years ago I likely would take Santos here. He has a great BJJ game and pretty good standup to compliment it very well. That being said, 40 years old is old, Roman is going to take this into deep waters, and even though he has not done so in his career, I believe he will get a late TKO from top position on the ground.

Roman Bogatov by 3rd Round TKO +155 1 unit

Early Prelims

Marcin Tybura vs Maxim Grishin Heavyweight Bout

Marcin Tybura by Decision -115 1 unit

Raulian Paiva vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov Flyweight Bout

Raulian Paiva by Decision -170 1 units

Karol Rosa vs Vanessa Melo Bantamweight Bout

Karol Rosa by Decision -270 3 units

Davey Grant vs Martin Day Bantamweight Bout

Martin Day by 3rd Round TKO -170 1 unit

DraftKings Lineup:

Parlay:

Been killing it on my Over/Under bets lately and really want to spread the cheese with everyone. I will continue to let everyone know on twitter what I am liking, but I added a couple here that I think are pretty tasty off the bat.

This is all I got for you for UFC 251, but as always may luck be your lady!