MAIN CARD
ALISTAIR OVEREEM V. ALEXANDER VOLKOV
An interesting matchup of heavyweights. Volkov is trying to break through to the top of the weight class. Overeem is trying to get one last title shot before riding off into the sunset. Overeem has been on a hot streak and a win will be his 3rd in a row and puts him in a good spot in the heavyweight division title picture. Volkov is coming off a win over Walt Harris, and this would be a big win for him. He started his UFC tenure hot, winning 4 straight, including former champion Werdum, but that win streak was ended in an infamous manner. That brutal KO to Derrick Lewis after Volkov was winning for 2 rounds and 4 minutes 40 seconds. He traded wins and losses with Greg Hardy, Curtis Blaydes, and Walt Harris since then. This would be his second straight win, and over a former title challenger and a legend in Overeem would be big.
Both fighters are kickboxers and fight at a distance. Overeem does like to clinch and his ground game is vicious. These guys don’t mind going late into fights and volume gets the job done. I say they don’t mind doing that, but I will say that Overeem does have the propensity to get early knockouts in his wins. I think both of these guys are going to expect a long battle, I can see this going into the later rounds. Overeem’s chin has been weak in the last couple of years, but Volkov isn’t the most powerful and Overeem has proven us haters wrong. This might be a bias pick, but I think we see a motivated Overeem who knows this is his last chance to get a title shot, and big heavyweights fighting in a small octagon can’t really fight at too much distance.
Alistair Overeem (+160) by 3rd round TKO
CORY SANDHAGEN V. FRANKIE EDGAR
Frankie Edgar was one of the first fighters I remember watching and liking. As a New Yorker, something about Frankie connected with me. The guy is a grinder and you just want to see him win. It’s crazy to think he was the lightweight champion at one point and now he is fighting at bantamweight. It seems this move has been a long time coming. His first bantamweight fight, it looked amazing to see him finally fight someone his own size. Now, it’s going to look like he is back at featherweight fighting a giant bantamweight in Cory Sandhagen. Sandhagen has had a weird last two fights. He lost to Aljamain Sterling in brutal fashion, an immediate submission. Then bounced back with a brutal knockout win over Marlon Moraes. Sandhagen is a massively lanky bantamweight and he is very good at using that length to his advantage.
How do I think this will play out? Sandhagen is going to hope to keep this like the Moraes fight and use his length to pick Frankie apart like Max Holloway did. He is going to choose his shots and not let Frankie get close. Frankie is going to try to use his wrestling, which is his specialty to take Sandhagen down and control him, or use his strong ground and pound to finish Sandhagen. Honestly, if this fight was a couple of years ago, I’d be more confident in Frankie. But, this isn’t just an honesty picks site, and I like the value here.
Frankie Edgar (+300) by decision
MICHAEL JOHNSON V. CLAY GUIDA
Honestly, I don’t fucking know. This is a toss up of long time UFC vets that sometimes put on great performances but can be put down at the drop of a dime. They’re pretty good at everything. Johnson is the better athlete. Guida is a madman. This should be entertaining.
Michael Johnson (-180) by decision
ALEXANDRE PANTOJA V. MANEL KAPE
Manel Kape is making his UFC debut, and they gave him a solid opponent for it. Granted, it is a tough matchup since Pantoja is a top flyweight. But the knockout artist Kape gets a guy that loves to brawl. This fight will be violent and action packed. This will be fast and I would not walk out of the room when this fight starts. It is great how fast the flyweight division went from nearly dropped to absolutely stacked. I am kind of shocked at this matchup because both of these guys can be studs in this division, but I guess why avoid the explosive matchup. Especially having this matchup in the small octagon. This should be a great matchup. Pantoja will probably be more active, until he tires out. Kape will counterstrike and try to land the knockout punch. Kape has knockout power and he has strong cardio. I wonder if the Kape will live up to the hype.
Manel Kape (-115) by 3rd round TKO
CARLOS DIEGO FERREIRA V. BENEIL DARIUSH
This card is lowkey fucking stacked. I didn’t even realize it. Granted, I didn’t know about this card until this morning. But Beneil Dariush is one of my favorite fighters. I picked him when I was on the Anik and Florian podcast, his fight against Drew Dober, and I have been rolling with him ever since. I like to think I deserve a cut of his pay since then, but that’s just my opinion. He was always a great grappler, but his striking has improved leaps and bounds in both precision and power. It has been impressive. Ferreira has been on the same career path, well since these two first faced off in 2014, which Dariush won by decision. They are both grapplers that worked on their striking. Ferreira’s last win was over Anthony Pettis and he is looking to build on that. Both of these guys are on the outside of the top ten of the lightweight division and a win here could get them closer to the top of the division. This might be a bias pick, but I like Dariush to keep rolling.
Beneil Dariush (-125) by 2nd round TKO
PRELIMS
MIKE RODRIGUEZ V. DANILO MARQUES
Mike Rodriguez (-240) by 2nd round TKO
DEVONTE SMITH V. JUSTIN JAYNES
Justin Jaynes (+260) by 1st round TKO
KAROL ROSA V. JOSELYNE EDWARDS
Joselyne Edwards (+175) by 2nd round TKO
MOLLY MCCANN V. LARA PROCOPIO
Yes, the return of MOTHERFUCKING MEATBALL MOLLY MCCANN. She is a brawler and has great cardio. She is very tough and will outwork nearly everyone. As long as she isn’t fighting a taller and longer fighter, she is in good shape.
Meatball Molly McCann (-130) by decision
CHOI SEUNG WOO V. YOUSSEF ZALAL
Choi Seung Woo (+190) by decision
TIMUR VALIEV V. MARTIN DAY
TImur Valiev (-450) by 1st round TKO
ODE OSBOURNE V. JEROME RIVERA
Ode Osbourne (-210) by decision
FIGHT OF THE NIGHT
ALEXANDRE PANTOJA V. MANEL KAPE