Evan’s Educated Guesses: UFC Vegas 11: Covington v. Woodley

MAIN CARD

COLBY COVINGTON V. TYRON WOODLEY

One of the few Colby grudge matches we have been waiting for that they are actually delivering. I am so glad they made this fight for us. These guys don’t like each other and it should make for great entertainment. This fight will come down to which Woodley we get. If it’s pre Usman Woodley, Woodley has a good shot of winning. If it’s post Usman Woodley, it’s Colby’s fight to win. Woodley has mostly been inactive in the octagon, waiting to land the big right and get a knockout. He has been slow and plodding. Not the best style matchup for someone going against Colby.

Colby pushes an intense pace and constantly moves forward throwing an endless amount of strikes and trying to get takedowns. Colby is trying to get back to the title shot, and a win here is a good start. He needs to avoid the big right from Woodley. If Woodley’s recent fights are any indicator, Colby will need to avoid 5-10 punches and he is safe.

This is obviously an explosive fight from a political perspective. I like both guys a lot. I hope both guys show up and put on their best performance. There are fights that just seem to break guys’ will and ruin their careers. So far, it seems that Usman did that for Woodley. Now we get to see if Usman did that for Colby too.

Colby Covington (-350) by decision

COWBOY CERRONE V. NIKO PRICE

I fucking love this fight. When I saw this was announced, I got very excited. Two guys that love violence signed up to meet in the octagon, and that never leads to a bad time. This one is going to be a winner. Granted, I am not sure who will be the winner of the fight, but I can say, I don’t see the fans losing. This is probably Cowboy’s last run at a title. He needs this win, which is crazy to say since he is fighting a young guy that isn’t ranked top ten. Niko Price is trying to crack the top ten and make a move up the welterweight division. Niko is violence personified and he just finds ways to finish fights. He has an upkick TKO win. His striking is unpredictable and accurate. I am very excited for this fight. Both guys have a shot of winning. Neither guy is going to want this fight to go to the judges’ scorecards. Niko has barely ever gone to decision. Cowboy barely ever goes to decision. This fight is not one you will want to miss. I think Cowboy might be a little too much for Niko at this point.

Cowboy Cerrone (+120) by 2nd round TKO

KHAMZHAT CHIMAEV V. GERALD MEERSCHAERT

This is a hard fight to pick. Chimaev is super hyped at this point. But he hasn’t really fought anyone that good yet. He is very strong and hadn’t taken any damage in his 2 fights so far. He gets matched up with, scrappy personified in Gerald Meerschaert (GM3). GM3 is one of those guys that is always in the fight. He is pretty good at everything. His grappling is strong and his striking is decent and only getting better. If GM3 was slightly better, I’d probably go with him for the upset, but I’m rolling with the hype train for now.

Khamzhat Chimaev (-450) by 1st round TKO

JOHNNY WALKER V. RYAN SPANN

I don’t trust Johnny Walker yet. 

Ryan Spann (+100) by decision

MACKENZIE DERN V. RANDA MARKOS

Weird accent, milf Mackenzie Dern is dangerous. 

Mackenzie Dern (-170) by 1st round submission

KEVIN HOLLAND V. DARREN STEWART

Kevin Holland has been flying under the radar and has been doing well during corona era. A win here pushes him up the middleweight division and he should get a solidly ranked opponent next.

Kevin Holland (-260) by decision

PRELIMS

JORDAN ESPINOSA V. DAVID DVORAK

Jordan Espinosa (-115) by decision

MIRSAD BEKTIC V. DAMON JACKSON

Mirsad Bektic by decision

MAYRA BUENO SILVA V. MARA ROMERO BORELLA

Mayra Bueno Silva (-270) by 1st round submission

JESSICA-ROSE CLARK V. SARAH ALPAR

Jessica-Rose Clark (-200) by decision

DARRICK MINNER V. TJ LARAMIE

Darrick Minner (+250) by decision

JOURNEY NEWSON V. RANDY COSTA

Journey Newson (-130) by 2nd round TKO

ANDRE EWELL V. IRWIN RIVERA

Andre Ewell (-220) by decision

TYSON NAM V. JEROME RIVERA

Tyson Nam (-200) by 1st round TKO

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT

COWBOY CERRONE V. NIKO PRICE