Evan’s Educated Guesses: UFC Fight Night 172: Overeem v. Harris

Here we are, the third card of the week. Man, I am loving this. the UFC has delivered 3 card in one week. I thought it was too good to be true, but it wasn’t. They actually did it. It was awesome. I am a little burnt out on picks, and I hope these picks are as good as my picks on Wednesday, but man have I had a blast watching fights this week. This will be another fun night of fights. Enjoy.

MAIN CARD

ALISTAIR OVEREEM V. WALT HARRIS

This is a tough fight to pick. You don’t want to pick against Walt Harris. After all of the shit he has gone through, you just want him to get the win. Harris is on a 3 fight win streak (I don’t know how to count a no contest in the middle there), all 3 of those being KO/TKO wins. His last two fights have lasted a combined 62 seconds. Harris has seemed to put his aggression, power, and accuracy together. Harris is going to come into this fight with a lot of emotions, you have to wonder how it will affect him. Is he going to put himself in danger? Is he going to fight recklessly? Or will he channel his emotions and use it to his advantage. I personally wouldn’t touch this fight from a betting perspective. Just too many variables. If there was a crowd, I’d be more likely to bet on Harris. He would have 15,000 people cheering him on, that would definitely help him. But with no crowd, that has to be to Alistair Overeem’s advantage.

Overeem is a very experienced fighter. He has faced nearly everyone there is to face. He has beaten some of the best there is, and he has lost to some of the best there is. Overeem has the edge in grappling. Overeem is the all around better fighter. If I had to say where Harris has the advantage, I’d say it was his chin. Overeem’s chin is made of glass. 

Harris is going to come out aggressively and try to land a big shot. If he doesn’t land one quickly, Overeem is going to grapple and drag this out. He is going to try to make this like the Rozenstruik fight, but try to avoid the cheek exploding punch with 5 seconds left in the fight. This is an extremely tough fight to predict. Again, I am going to say, I would not bet on this fight at all, but I am going to go with my gut that the guy fighting for something is going to come out and get the win.

Walt Harris by 1st round TKO

CLAUDIA GADELHA V. ANGELA HILL

Angela Hill has been the female Cowboy Cerrone and it has been gaining her fans. She will take any fight she can. This is evident by this being her 3rd fight of 2020 even though there was a 2 month break between cards and it is only May. Hill is on a 3 fight win streak and she has looked pretty good in all 3 of those fights. She has really hit her stride and is making a run up the division towards a title shot. This would be her biggest win to date. Her UFC career hasn’t been the smoothest, but something seems to have clicked after losing to Xiaonan Yan in June 2019. She seems more confident in her standup game, and her fuck you elbows have been landing a lot more often and whole lot cleaner. It has been nice to see. She wants to stand and trade and her kickboxing has been strong.

Picking a Claudia Gadelha match has been difficult recently. She used to be an easy pick, unless she was fighting Joanna Jedrzejczyk. But after a loss to Jessica Andrade, which was a beat down, she seemed to lose confidence in her grappling and she turned into a kickboxer. Her last effort against Randa Markos was a boring effort which saw little output from both fighters. Gadelha got the decision based on the slightly higher number of strikes landed and thrown. Gadelha has fought, and for the most part beaten, the better competition. 

If Gadelha gets back to her physically imposing grappling game, this is her fight for the taking. If she is still ok with being a kickboxer, she is putting herself at risk. Hill is hoping for a kickboxing match. Both fighters’ gas tanks seem to slow down in the third round. If this is a kickboxing match, the third round will see them throwing haymakers trying to put eachother out. Look for Hill to try to land some serious fuck you elbows. This should be an entertaining fight.

Angela Hill by decision

DAN IGE V. EDSON BARBOZA

Edson Barboza is making his featherweight debut. It’s been a tough stretch for the brazilian and he asked for his release after his last fight, but he decided to drop a weight class and reinvent himself. He’s lost 4 of his last 5 fights. Those losses came to Khabib, Kevin Lee, Justin Gaethje, and Paul Felder. The win sandwiched in there was over Dan Hooker. That is a tough stretch. Then again, Barboza had been fighting the best lightweights the UFC has to offer, and the lightweight division is arguably the most stacked division. So now he wants to try to find some success at featherweight. Barboza’s losses were coming against guys that were moving forward and pressuring him. This took away his biggest weapon, his fast kicks. Barboza’s kicks are very dangerous and have put many of his opponents away. Of his 20 wins, 12 have come by KO/TKO. You do not want to let him get started and get in a groove landing kicks. It will not end well for you. He is betting the move down to featherweight will let him be the bigger guy, and that he will still be the faster guy.

This is an interesting choice of matchup for his featherweight debut since Dan Ige is a pressure fighter that will move forward and try to make it a brawl and try to eliminate the threat of Barboza’s kicks. Ige feels like a rookie still, but this is his 7th trip to the octagon and he is 5-1. He is coming off his biggest win, at least by name of opponent, a split decision win over Mirsad Bektic, in February 2020. I remember not being very impressed by the fight. 

Ige wants to control the tempo of the fight. He is going to try to press forward and do his thing. He will follow the game plan of the fighters that have beaten Barboza. I like Ige, I think he has some promise, but I think Barboza has the experience to dictate where this fight will take place. Barboza has fought the best of the best and has what it takes to keep away from the pressure and keep Ige away with his kicks.

Edson Barboza by decision

ERYK ANDERS V. KRZYSZTOF JOTKO

Eryk Anders is one of the guys in the gym with Walt Harris and might be fighting with some strong emotions this weekend. He has had an up and down start to his UFC career. He is standing at 5-4 and has shown an interesting array of skills. Very strong knockout power, and solid takedown defense. His cardio hasn’t always been there, but he has taken fights on short notice and has taken fights above his skill level. As a fight fan, you have to respect what he has done in his young MMA career. If you look at his 4 losses, they were Lyoto Machida, Thiago Santos, Elias Theodorou, and Khalil Rountree. Machida was on short notice and a big step up in talent that he wasn’t ready for. Santos was definitely too much too soon. Theodorou ran away from him for 15 minutes like he always does. I don’t remember the Rountree fight. Anders has shown improvement in his fights. His last fight wasn’t that impressive. He has had issues putting all aspects of his fighting game together at the same time, and it has hurt him in his losses. When he’s lost, his opponent was able to tire him out early and he won’t be able to throw much. Anders does better against straight strikers or grapplers. Fighters that are awkward or unorthodox are a big challenge for Anders.

That will be an issue for Anders here. Krzyszstof Jotko is a weird fighter. His movement is awkward and it is hard to get his timing down. He is not the best striker, and does not have great power, but he is pretty awkward. His grappling is decent, but having 1 submission win in 21 total professional wins does not make me think he is much of a submission threat here. Jotko has lost 3 of his last 5, with his losses coming to David Branch, Uriah Hall, and Brad Tavares. Not the worst fighters to lose to. Jotko has faced some talented fighters, but hasn’t shown much finishing skills. He is inconsistent, but can be scrappy. 

I think any of Jotko’s grappling attempts will be neutralized by Anders’ solid grappling takedown defense. So this will be a standup brawl. If it goes to the distance, I think Jotko will take the decision. Anders has the knockout power that if he lands one he can finish this fight on the feet.

Eryk Anders by 1st round TKO

SONG YADONG V. MARLON VERA

This could be a fun fight. Two young guys trying to move up the ranks. Song Yadong has a huge hype train behind him, I think it’s because he’s from China, and the UFC has been putting a hype train behind any Chinese fighter with skills, see Weili Zhang getting a title shot (not that she isn’t very talented). Marlon “Chito” Vera is 9-4 in the UFC and has faced some really good bantamweights. Both of these guys are fighting at featherweight since this is a short notice fight. Yadong hasn’t lost since October 2016, before he joined UFC, but is coming off a draw in December 2019 against Cody Stamann. Yadong has shown a lot of skills and I think he is a very good fighter. I think he can make a run at the title. I just don’t know if it will start here.

Chito Vera has been on a hot streak that has not gotten much hype. He is on a 5 fight win streak, and all 5 wins were finished. It has been quite the streak. He has ended a bunch of hype trains in this streak. In different circumstances I might pick Song Yadong, but he had a bunch of visa issues and almost didn’t make it to the fight. Urijah Faber weighed in as a backup. I don’t know how Yadong will handle the pressure from the complications of getting to this fight. I think Vera has a bit more experience against better talent. This will be a fun fight to watch though.

Marlon Vera by decision

PRELIMS

MATT BROWN V. MIGUEL BAEZA

Matt Brown is making his second trip to the octagon since retiring after KO’ing Diego Sanchez. Brown looked good in his last fight, a 2nd round KO over Ben Saunders. Good enough to take another fight over young Miguel Baeza. Baeza is 1-0 in the UFC and this is the biggest name he’s fought yet. Baeza is a slow pace fighter, he likes to counterstrike and dictate the pace. That won’t work against Matt Brown who likes to bring the fight forward and be an action fighter. This should be an interesting matchup. Baeza hasn’t faced anyone on the talent level of Matt Brown before. It will be a good gauge for the talent level of Baeza.

Matt Brown by 3rd round TKO

ANTHONY HERNANDEZ V. KEVIN HOLLAND

This is a matchup of two guys that don’t seem to know what their true strengths are. They are decent grapplers but don’t really think when they’re fighting. They open themselves up to being hit and it puts them in trouble. I have a feeling this might end up like Ricky Simon v. Ray Borg and be a grappling match. I don’t know if it’ll be as dominant, but I think it might be a straight up grappling match.

Kevin Holland by decision

GIGA CHIKADZE V. IRWIN RIVERA

Giga Chikadze was a great kickboxer before joining the UFC. He was supposed to fight Brandon Davis this week. Davis had a weight cut issue a couple of days ago. Irwin Rivera got the call up and is taking this fight on 3 days notice, and is fighting up a weight class. It is hard to pick a guy fighting up a weight class on 3 days notice.

Giga Chikadze by 1st round TKO

DARREN ELKINS V. NATE LANDWEHR

This will be a war. This is going to be a fight between two guys who want a brawl and are going to try to outslug each other. I don’t think either really have finishing power, but both have stamina and can take a lot of damage. This will be a fun fight. No one can take a beating and deliver a beating like Darren Elkins. He has outlasted many and has one of the greatest comebacks I have ever seen. It is hard to count him out of a brawl. Don’t miss this fight.

Darren Elkins by decision

CORTNEY CASEY V. MARA ROMERO BORELLA

Cortney Casey by decision

RODRIGO NASCIMENTO FERREIRA V. DON’TALE MAYES

Heavyweight matchup of grappler (Rodrigo Nascimento) v. striker (Don’tale Mayes). Mayes has the height advantage. This will be an interesting matchup of new heavyweights that are trying to establish themselves in this division. Mayes was caught in a submission in his last fight against Ciryl Gane, which was his UFC debut. This could be over quickly.

Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira by 1st round submission

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT

DARREN ELKINS V. NATE LANDWEHR