UFC 259 is here and we have 3 title fights. I hope all 3 don’t go to decision or we will be in for a very long night, but then again I live in Arizona so it won’t be too late for me. Suckers. Haha, but still, I am hoping for some good fights tonight. This card is stacked and it should be entertaining as hell. I am excited for this card and you should be too. Well, here are my picks.
MAIN CARD
JAN BLACHOWICZ V. ISRAEL ADESANYA
When this fight was first announced, my first thought was, “ugh, why?” But as the weeks went on and I read about it and thought about it, and watched more fights, it made sense. Jan has been around forever, and Adesanya was built up right. So both of them have fought nearly everyone in their respective divisions worthy of a title shot. Plus, Adesanya was hoping to move up to 205 to fight Jones, but Jones went up to heavyweight. So this fight does make sense, in a weird way. It gives middleweight time to find a worthy challenger for Adesanya’s return. Same for light heavyweight. As to who wins this fight, I am not thrilled with what I think is going to happen. I hate these super fights because I hate champ champs that tie up multiple divisions.
Blachowicz has been around for a long time. He lost 4 of his first 6 fights before it “clicked” for him. He went on a 4 fight win streak, before getting knocked out by Thiago Santos, not the worst loss. But 3 wins after that loss put him in a fight for the vacant title and he knocked out Dominick Reyes and he found himself the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion. Blachowicz has serious power. He uses his jab effectively to move forward and mixes in kicks well. He’s good at attacking the body. But he’s not the best athlete and isn’t the quickest guy. He tends to stand flat footed and wants to brawl.
We know what Adesanya is all about. He is a kickboxer. He is tall and lanky. He sometimes fought at heavyweight before switching to MMA. The guy is a freak athlete. He barely cut weight to make middleweight, he would weigh in at 183. He didn’t put on muscle for this fight. He just cut less weight than usual. Adesanya is the ultimate counter striker. There is nothing he loves more than an opponent charging forward into range of his kicks and punches, which he throws from angles that no human can comprehend. Just as incomprehensive is his ability to not get hit. He just doesn’t get hit. His ability to throw devastating strikes as he backs up is amazing.
This could be like the Kelvin fight or like the Romero fight. The one thing we don’t know is how Adesanya will react when he feels Jan’s power. Yes, he has fought at heavyweight, but that was with big boxing gloves. That wasn’t with 4 oz gloves. When he got hit by Romero, he wasn’t too quick to tango with him much the rest of the fight. How much respect will he show Jan’s power. Or will he be able to avoid getting hit by Jan? Jan has had problems with fast opponents and he might have problems hitting Adesanya. How will Jan handle getting hit by Adesanya? He will get hit by him, probably a lot of times. There are a few ways this fight will go. The Romero way, Adesanya gets hit early and avoids getting hit and throws some leg kicks the rest of the fight and it’s a boring ass fight that Adesanya scrapes a decision win. Jan lands a devastating punch that puts Adesanya to sleep. Adesanya picks Jan apart for 5 rounds and gets a decisive decision win. I personally think it’s the last one. I think Adesanya’s speed and athleticism is too much. I think he is just going to pick Jan apart and land at will, but I don’t think he will be able to get a finish.
Israel Adesanya (-250) by decision
AMANDA NUNES V. MEGAN ANDERSON
I love an upset as much as anyone, but I also love Amanda Nunes as much as anyone. Her fist fight with Valentina won me over as fans to both of them. Nunes is a monster and as pretty much the consensus best women fighter of all time, there’s not many that seem to be close to her. When it comes to the featherweight division, I think this is especially true. This division was made to be the Cyborg division, and Nunes dispensed Cyborg in easy fashion. She rendered Cyborg obsolete and tossed her to Bellator.
Nunes was so good, people had to find reasons to complain about her, and they said she was making it look too easy. She didn’t have a gas tank. She couldn’t wrestle. So in her last two fights she wrestled Germaine de Randamie and Felicia Spencer into one sided decision wins. Against GDR this was a smart strategy that she will probably use against Megan Anderson.
Megan Anderson is taller and has a reach advantage over Nunes. Anderson has knockout power and has solid kicks. I don’t think she is a real threat to Nunes.
I think Nunes could knockout Anderson in the first round if she wants to. But I think Nunes is now comfortable with her grappling and wrestling game. I have a feeling Nunes is going to utilize her grappling and wrestling in this fight to avoid Anderson’s strengths. I see Nunes going for takedowns and controlling this fight on the mat. Using her ground and pound to disfigure Anderson.
Amanda Nunes (-900) by decision
PETR YAN V. ALJAMAIN STERLING
Finally, Aljamain Sterling gets the title shot he deserves. He is the uncrowned bantamweight champion. Him v. Cory Sandhagen should have been the title fight after Cejudo retired, not Yan v. Aldo. But I digress, this fight is the right fight to make. I love this matchup. Grappler v striker. Yan has some grappling in him, but not on the level that Aljo does. Plus, Aljo is from Long Island, and a Serra-Longo MMA and I love those guys. I have been waiting for another one of those guys to get a shot at the gold and I think Aljo is primed for this big spot.
I’ll keep this short since I might be completely biased in this analysis.
Yan has looked impressive in his run to the title, but his resume has not been that impressive. He’s beaten Teruto Ishihara, Jin Soo Son, Douglas Silva de Andrade, John Dodson, Jimmie Rivera, Urijah Faber, and Jose Aldo. Those are decent names, but Dodson runs away from people, Rivera is perfectly mediocre, Urijah is old, and Aldo definitely didn’t deserve that title shot. As to the first 3 guys, I’ve never heard of them. Yan is a pressure fighter. He starts a bit slow, but that is to get timing down and builds up and once he gets going, it is hard to slow him down. He is dangerous. His fight against Urijah was the perfect model for how he fights. The Aldo fight was too. But the Urijah fight, he barely did anything the first round, it looked like Urijah might actually win. Then in the 2nd round he started throwing more and it seemed like he was waking up. He started doing damage. Then he landed a head kick 43 seconds into the 3rd round to win the fight. His strikes are fast and diverse and he has power. He doesn’t get tired, he only gets stronger as the fight goes on.
Aljo has improved in each of his fights. The blemishes on his resume are weird. He has 2 split decision losses, both were bad decisions. He has 1 knockout loss, a vicious knee from Marlon Moraes when he shot in for a takedown. Other than that, he has been great. His striking has improved greatly. He throws for volume and uses striking to move in to utilize his excellent wrestling and grappling. He was a college wrestler but trains with Matt Serra, who was one of the first white people to get a black belt in BJJ. So Aljo’s grappling is on another level. Aljo’s cardio is off the charts, he trains with Merab Dvalishvili, a machine who never tires, so he has to keep his cardio up.
The key to this fight for Aljo is getting to a quick start and keeping Yan moving back. Aljo has reach advantage. He has to use his kicks and strikes to keep Yan off balance. Yan is a slow starter, but if he gets going and comfortable, it tends to get bad for his opponents. Aljo can’t let him get going. Against Sandhagen, the second Sandhagen offered a limb, Aljo grabbed it and didn’t let go. I think Aljo will try to do the same. I’m probably being crazy here, but I am really high on Aljo, and I think Yan is stupid confidence. I think Aljo pulls off something crazy.
Aljamain Sterling (+105) by 1st round submission
ISLAM MAKHACHEV V. DREW DOBER
I am crazy, but I will buck the trend here. I like this matchup a lot. Drew Dober is pretty underrated. He’s one of those guys that does everything well. You can’t make a mistake against him. You can’t be sloppy or you’re going to lose. This is especially true since he moved to the Elevation Fight Team. That is probably the best gym right now, or one of the best gyms. He has reached another level since moving there. His takedown defense has gotten a lot better. His striking has gotten a lot better. His striking is more accurate, and he has found another level of power that he didn’t have before. He is on a 3 fight win streak with 3 TKOs, over Marco Polo Reyes, Nasrat Haqparast, and Alexander Hernandez.
He is facing Khabib Jr, I mean Islam Makhachev. Makhachev is pretty much a less athletic, but more technical Khabib. They train at the same gyms. They are the same. Islam does have one loss on his record, he was knocked out by Adriano Martins at UFC 192 in 2015. He is on a 6 fight win streak since then, with one KO and 5 decisions. He uses wrestling to control opponents and get decisions. He is Khabib Jr. He has better striking, but typically uses the same style and game plans.
This is where I will be crazy, I am a Dober fan. Makhachev isn’t as active, and may be more technically sound striking than Khabib, but he does get sloppy, and Dober has stopping power. If he leaves an opening on the feet, Dober will put him out. Dober’s takedown defense has gotten better. I don’t think Makhachev is as good as Khabib. We haven’t seen Makhachev that much. He fights once a year, maybe. I could be totally wrong and biased here. But, I am going out on a limb here.
Drew Dober (+300) by 3rd round TKO
THIAGO SANTOS V. ALEKSANDAR RAKIC
Rakic is facing another victim of Teixiera. I wonder how Santos is feeling coming off that terrible loss. It was not good for him. He was hoping to bounce back from that tough loss to Jones and knee surgery with a big win, but instead got submitted by Teixeira in astounding fashion. Now he is facing a hungry, and young guy that fights in a very similar manner to him. Both guys use measured violence. They prefer their opponents to come into range then explode into strikes that will put their opponents to sleep quickly. It is tough to pick which guy will win here. They’re both good. And both guys can win on any given night against a majority of the guys in the division. Rakic is probably the better grappler, as he showed against Anthony Smith in his last fight. I don’t think we’ll see this one go to the ground though. I think we’ll see them stand around for a while until the small octagon brings them too close to avoid each other.
Thiago Santos (+140) by 2nd round TKO
PRELIMS
DOMINICK CRUZ V. CASEY KENNEY
Casey Kenney (-135) by decision
SONG YADONG V. KYLER PHILLIPS
Song Yadong (-170) by 1st round TKO
JOSEPH BENAVIDEZ V. ASKAR ASKAROV
Joseph Benavidez (+105) by decision
ROGERIO BONTORIN V. KAI KARA-FRANCE
Kai Kara-Fance (-135) by decision
TIM ELLIOTT V. JORDAN ESPINOSA
Tim Elliott (-120) by decision
KENNEDY NZECHUKWU V. CARLOS ULBERG
Kennedy Nzechukwu (+200) by 1st round TKO
SEAN BRADY V. JAKE MATTHEWS
Sean Brady (-225) by decision
LIVIA RENATA SOUZA V. AMANDA LEMOS
Livia Renata Souza (+180) by 2nd round submission
UROS MEDIC V. AALON CRUZ
Aalon Cruz (+145) by 3rd round TKO
MARIO BAUTISTA V. TREVIN JONES
Mario Bautista (-225) by decision
FIGHT OF THE NIGHT
ISLAM MAKHACHEV V. DREW DOBER