The trilogy that we never realized we needed. I am still dying for Conor v. Nate III, but for now Stipe v. DC III will suffice. It is nice that DC was able to get out of Jon Jones’ shadow. At least for me, I am sure a lot of people will never give DC credit. DC only has 2 losses (2nd loss to Jones doesn’t count since it was overturned) in MMA, one to Jones and one to Stipe. So one to the best light heavyweight ever. And depending on the winner tonight, one to the best or second best heavyweight of all time. I’d say DC is pound for pound one of the best fighters ever. Stipe, with a win, locks up the best heavyweight designation for now. He has more heavyweight title defenses than anyone and a win over DC would be another impressive win on his resume. Everyone has been talking about DC retiring after this fight, but I’ve been thinking, what if Stipe wins and retires? He is 37, and a win here cements him as the best heavyweight of all time as of now. He has already beaten Ngannou. He doesn’t have the best relationship with the UFC. Maybe he retires too? Either way, I am excited for this fight and can’t believe it is finally here.
Also on this card, I am excited to see the hype train of Sugar Sean O’Malley meet it’s toughest test yet in Marlon “Chito” Vera. Vera will be a big challenge for the young superstar. We also have another heavyweight slugfest in Junior dos Santos v. Jairzinho Rozenstruik. That will be explosive. In the prelims, it’s nice to see Felice Herrig make her return after nearly two years off due to a torn ACL. Well, now let’s get to the picks. Enjoy, and good luck tonight.
MAIN CARD
STIPE MIOCIC V. DANIEL CORMIER
Making picks for rematches is tough. Making picks for a trilogy is really tough. They each have one win against each other. But then you consider the other facts. DC has dominated 4 of the 5 rounds they have fought. Plus, they’re heavyweights, so one punch is all it really takes to end the fight. There are so many variables for this fight. Even though these two guys barely sold this fight, it just feels huge. Heavyweight fights still sell. The UFC must have been thrilled when Stipe won the second fight. This is a huge fight for both of these guys’ legacy and the division. Francis Ngannou is definitely keeping an eye on this fight as he is most likely fighting the winner. This being the third matchup, they must know each other very well by now. Stipe hasn’t fought anyone besides DC since 2018. DC sandwiched a Derrick Lewis title defense between Stipe I and II. But DC couldn’t retire on a loss like Stipe II, so here we are for Stipe v. DC III.
If this is DC’s last fight, he did have quite a career. Nine of his last ten career fights were title fights.That is crazy. He was 6-2 with one No Contest there. He did win the non-title fight too. His only 2 losses were to Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic. Jones is the best light heavyweight of all time. Depending on who wins tonight, Stipe is the best or second best heavyweight of all time. Now he gets to avenge his loss to Stipe. DC fell in love with his standup game and didn’t wrestle as much after the second round of the 2nd fight. It ended up being his downfall, as Stipe found his distance and started working the body until he was able to drop DC and get the TKO finish. DC has admitted as much, so we should expect to see a wrestling heavy gameplan from the former Olympic wrestler. Being in the smaller octagon, there isn’t much room for Stipe to avoid DC and his takedowns. DC was able to take Stipe down at will. DC knows that Stipe’s wrestling isn’t close to his and that is where the fight should take place. DC’s standup game is by no means anything to sleep on, he is just shorter and has shorter reach. DC is not afraid to stand and trade, but his game plan will most likely center on getting this fight to the mat.
It has to be weird for Stipe to enter a fight having the wrestling disadvantage. Usually Stipe is the wrestler in the matchup. That is how he beat Francis Ngannou. Took him to the mat and grinded him out for a decision. Didn’t give Francis a chance to land a knockout blow. DC’s resume may be littered with top names of light heavyweight and heavyweight division, Stipe’s resume is littered with top names of the heavyweight division. Stipe is a strong wrestler, but he doesn’t use it as often as DC. Stipe uses his strong boxing game. He has good footwork and a solid game plan. And as a heavyweight, power in his hands. Fifteen of his nineteen wins come by KO/TKO. Stipe has spent nearly 5 rounds in the octagon with DC, he has to know what DC’s game plan will be. Stipe’s takedown defense will be the main factor in this fight.
The biggest x factor in this fight though, is how they trained because of the coronavirus. It must have been hard for both of them to be able to wrestle. There was plenty of time for them to work on cardio though. Both guys weighed in the mid 230s and looked pretty svelte. But wrestling cardio is different from running or sparring cardio. I think this will play out more like the 2nd fight. DC is going to implement a wrestling heavy game plan. I don’t think there will be a quick knockout. DC is going to try to grind out a win. Stipe is going to work the body and try to tire DC out into making a mistake. As I said, I think this is going to play out like the 2nd fight.
Stipe Miocic (-115) by 3rd round TKO
“SUGAR” SEAN O’MALLEY V. MARLON “CHITO” VERA
Another fight I find very difficult to pick. I have been on the Chito bandwagon since he beat Guido Cannetti in November 2018. Then how can you not like Sugar Sean? He is electric. When I saw this matchup, I was excited for a minute because it is going to be a great fight. But then I was disappointed because I don’t want either of these guys to lose. Both of these guys are on the edge of the top ten in the bantamweight division and a win here would be pretty big in a stacked division.
Chito is coming off a pretty bad decision loss to Yadong Song. I mean the decision was bad, not the fight. Chito is one tough son of a bitch. He is a well rounded fighter. His striking is powerful and pretty good. Five of his fifteen wins are by KO/TKO. He is a black belt in brazilian jiu-jitsu, and 8 of his 15 wins are by submission. Only 2 of his wins are by decision. Chito is a finisher, he is an action fighter and is usually moving forward, sometimes recklessly. Even though he may fight a little recklessly, he has never been finished. All of his losses have come by decision. Chito has been in the UFC for a while and has slowly come up the ranks and has shown an improvement. Chito uses his aggression to find openings whether it is on the feet to get a finish or an opening for a takedown. His cardio is very good and he does not tire out. Expect him to keep pushing the pace, unless he gets caught and put to sleep.
In comparison, Sugar Sean exploded onto the scene with a crazy knockout on Dana White’s Contender Series. It looked like he was going to be on a rocketship to the top and immediately get a title. But then USADA stepped in and he had a 2 year suspension. He came back in March 2020 with a 1st round TKO of Jose Alberto Quinonez to make a splash in his comeback. He came back in June and scored a quick 2 minute walk off knockout win over Eddie Wineland. After that win, Sugar complained that he didn’t even get to show off his grappling. Well, he is going up against a guy that has never been finished, I have a feeling he will be tested going to deep waters. His first two fights in the UFC were decisions, and he did not look great late in the fight. He suffered an injury in the Andre Soukhamthath fight so that could have been a factor. Either way, I expect Chito to be the toughest test Sugar has faced to date. Sugar has explosive striking and can put anyone to sleep at any time. He is very accurate and has awkward footwork that is hard to read.
This is a great matchup and a solid opponent for Sugar. It’s nice that they are not just pushing him to the top too quickly. But at the same time it is smart to put him in the co-main event spot. He is clearly a superstar and will make the UFC a ton of money. This has fight of the night written all over it. Chito is probably going to keep moving forward looking for an opening. He trusts his chin, especially since he has never been finished and has taken a lot of big shots from big strikers before. Sugar is going to use that aggression to his advantage and pepper him with big shots until he can get the finish or the bell rings.
I’m not going to lie, Sugar is probably going to win. He is more explosive. He has more power. He has a higher fight IQ. But I like the odds on Chito. I think Chito is more experienced, has a better gas tank, and is a better grappler.
Chito Vera (+225) by decision
JUNIOR DOS SANTOS V. JAIRZINHO ROZENSTRUIK
Oh shit, do we have a hell of a match here. My guess this was made in case one of the main eventers couldn’t make it to the fight. Even if both guys are coming off losses, these guys are heavyweight bangers and JDS is ranked 5 and Rozenstruik is ranked 6. I know if Stipe or DC couldn’t make the walk, I wouldn’t be upset with one of these guys stepping in. JDS is a former champion and one of the best UFC heavyweights ever. Rozenstruik is a beast and will be a fixture in the heavyweight division for a while. This fight will be a banger and I will not look away when these guys step into the octagon.
What don’t we know about JDS? He made his UFC debut at UFC 90 in 2008 against Fabricio Werdum. He has fought some of the best heavyweights of all time. Seriously, looking at his resume is impressive. His UFC losses are to Cain Velasquez (twice), Alistair Overeem, Stipe Miocic, Francis Ngannou, and Curtis Blaydes. JDS does have a win over Cain and Stipe so he has been able to best them as well. As mentioned above, JDS is coming off two losses, both were TKOs. First to Ngannou, which was an insane sequence where Ngannou dropped JDS landing a big shot on a reach around as JDS had his back towards Ngannou. The second loss was to Blaydes, a fight that JDS was expecting a wrestling match, but Blaydes was content to box and landed a nasty overhand that dropped JDS and some ground and pound got the finish. JDS is primarily a boxer. His boxing is outstanding. He uses his jab and great footwork to move in and land the big power shots to get the finish. Before those two losses, he was on a 3 fight winning streak that saw him utilize his boxing to dominate his opponents. His wins over Tai Tuivasa and Derrick Lewis saw him use a lot of shots to the body to eventually open shots to the head. The body shots did finish Lewis. It looked like a rejuvenated JDS that could make another run at the title, especially if he could beat Ngannou, but then Ngannou put JDS down.
Rozenstruik came to the UFC in 2019 and made a big splash going 4-0 — all by KO/TKO — and capped his year off with an explosive 5th round knockout of Alistair Overeem, he exploded his cheek as the fight was ending. Then he topped that by being one of the first people crazy enough to call out Francis Ngannou. No one does that. We all know how that ended, a 20 second knockout and Rozenstruik’s first professional loss. Ngannou bum rushed Rozenstruik and threw some wild shots and caught him and put him down. It was fast and vicious. That fight was going to come down to who could land first, and Ngannou was not going to give Rozenstruik a chance. It seems a lot of people have jumped off the Rozenstruik bandwagon after that fight, but not me. The guy was a world class kickboxer before joining the UFC. His striking is accurate and powerful. He has a KO win from a jab. He is still a very dangerous fighter.
JDS and Rozenstruik are both looking to bounce back from losses. For Rozenstruik, it was the first of his career, and it was a vicious KO. How he comes back will be a big factor in the outcome of this fight. I think this is a favorable matchup for his return to the octagon. JDS is not going to back away. JDS is not going to clinch him up or go for takedowns like Overeem. This fight is going to take place in the middle of the octagon. JDS is coming off a couple of KO losses so you have to wonder how his chin will hold up. For JDS, he doesn’t have to worry about takedowns like his last opponent, Blaydes, so he can just stand in the middle of the octagon and use his boxing to try to get back in the win column. This will be a heavyweight slugfest and not one to miss.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-125) by 2nd round TKO
HERBERT BURNS V. DANIEL PINEDA
Herbert Burns is a low prospect in the featherweight at the moment, but he got a spot on the main card of a PPV here in his third UFC fight. This is due to a fight being dropped, but Burns v. Pineda was moved to the main card because Burns is 2-0 with 2 first round finishes in the UFC. For an inexperienced prospect, he is fun to watch. His two fights have shown he goes for the kill quickly. Like his brother, Gilbert, he is a brazilian jiu-jitsu master. He goes for takedowns and quick submissions. Eight of his eleven wins come by submission. His striking isn’t on the same level as his brother. His striking is perfunctory and is just used to close the distance for takedowns and to get a hold of his opponent.
Daniel Pineda is making his return to the octagon. He last fought in the UFC in 2014, UFC 171 Hendricks v. Lawler. He has bounced around other promotions since then. Pineda is also a strong grappler. Eighteen of his twenty six wins have come by submission. Pineda might be one of the better grapplers Burns has faced as a MMA fighter. This will make for an interesting test for Burns. Burns did miss weight, so you have to wonder if he is stronger because he didn’t finish the weight cut, or if he is weaker because he couldn’t finish the weight cut. Either way, I think Burns’ jiu-jitsu is world class and Pineda is no match for Burns on the mat.
Herbert Burns (-260) by 1st round submission
JOHN DODSON V. MERAB DVALISHVILI
This is a true battle of polar opposites. Dodson’s gameplans usually entail throwing a punch or two and running away. He is the bantamweight version of Elias Theodorou. Merab’s gameplan is advance, takedown, and wrestle. Whoever’s gameplan is implemented better will get the W here, obviously, but these two gameplans play perfectly into each other.
Dodson does have deceptive power, he is coming off a pretty devastating knockout of Nathaniel Wood. Ten of his twenty-one wins have come by knockout. I am actually thinking Dodson might not run away too much. He might let Merab charge forward and try to find an opening for one of his booming strikes. Dodson’s takedown defense is pretty good and his losses have mostly come against top competition only. Two of his losses were to former flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson. Dodson is not someone to take lightly.
It is a little hard for me to pick fights for Serra-Longo guys. I do have a bias for them, except for Weidman since I lost faith in him. Merab is one of those guys. Merab’s nickname, The Machine, is very fitting as his cardio is unreal. It is on a different level. My favorite Merab anecdote is for his fight at Rio Rancho, the Serra-Longo team was afraid to tell him it was at altitude because he would train way too intensely. This guy does not tire out. His last 3 fights he has over ten takedowns. Merab should be undefeated in the UFC, his debut was a weak split decision loss to Frankie Saenz, not a robbery, just a weak decision. His second loss was definitely a robbery. The ref called a submission loss after the bell rang for the end of the third round it was terrible. Merab has completely dominated since then. His gameplans have never changed though, move forward and go for a takedown. What has changed in his four wins from his first two losses, is his ability to control his opponents and his ability to inflict damage on the ground.
If this was the Dodson of a couple of years ago, I like this matchup for him more than Merab. It is still a tough matchup for Merab, Dodson is the biggest name on his resume. Merab constantly moves forward and puts himself in danger. He does eat a lot of strikes and takes damage. But over his last couple of fights, he has shown an improved striking game. An improved striking game has helped him close the distance to get more efficient takedowns. It won’t be easy to takedown Dodson, I have a feeling Merab will be chasing Dodson down for a decent amount of time. But another advantage for Merab, this fight is at the Apex with the small octagon. There is not much room for Dodson to run. I think this is a two outcome fight. Dodson catches Merab on a takedown entry and puts him to sleep, which has never happened to Merab in his 4 losses. Or Merab wrestles Dodson into oblivion and a decision, Dodson has never been finished. I have really liked what I have seen from Merab. He has looked better every fight.
Merab Dvalishvili (-250) by decision
PRELIMS
JIM MILLER V. VINC PINCHEL
Jim Miller (+100) by 1st round submission
FELICE HERRIG V. VIRNA JANDIROBA
Felice Herrig (+240) by decision
TJ BROWN V. DANNY CHAVEZ
TJ Brown (-140) by 1st round submission
ASHLEY YODER V. LIVIA RENATA SOUZA
Ashley Yoder (+130) by decision
CHRIS DAUKAUS V. PARKER PORTER
Parker Porter (-120) by 2nd round TKO
KAI KAMAKA V. TONY KELLEY
Kai Kamaka (-220) by decision
FIGHT OF THE NIGHT
“SUGAR” SEAN O’MALLEY V. MARLON “CHITO” VERA