Evan’s Educated Guesses: UFC 248: Israel Adesanya v. Yoel Romero

UFC 248 has arrived. Israel Adesanya is proving to be the Champion we deserve, a fighting champion. He won/defended his title/interim title in October and is fighting 5 months later, which isn’t terribly long. He is defending against the cuban wrecking ball Yoel Romero.Weili Zhang is making her first defense of her strawweight title against former strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Highly (see what I did there) touted prospect Suga Sean O’Malley is making his return after a 2 month layoff. This is going to be a good card.

MAIN CARD

ISRAEL ADESANYA V. YOEL ROMERO

There are two fighters in the UFC that never (before fall 2019) get called out, Francis Ngannou and Yoel Romero. So, I was giddy when I saw Israel Adesanya call out Romero after his win over former champion Robert Whitaker. I didn’t care if Romero has lost 3 of his last 4. Romero is on the list of one of the best fighters to never win a title. There are not many guys willing to step into the octagon with the human bowling bowl that is Yoel Romero. 

The 2000 Olympic silver medalist in wrestling is 9-3 in the UFC, with his 3 losses coming to Whitaker (twice), and Paulo Costa. All 3 losses were decisions. The second Whitaker and Costa decision were arguably shitty decisions by the judges. Romero has TKO/KO’d Derek Brunson, Tim Kennedy, Lyoto Machida, Chris Weidman, and Luke Rockhold; and has beaten Brad Tavares and Jacare Souza by decision. Other two wins were cans in his debut and second fight. But that is an impressive list of wins. Romero’s fighting style is pretty simple, save energy and try to murder the guy. Romero does not have an impressive gas tank. He can last five rounds because he does not attempt many takedowns and does not throw many strikes. But if he does throw strikes, he throws it with intentions to put you in the grave. He is super explosive and his power is devastating. If Romero can land a clean shot, chances are you’re going to sleep.

The question then shifts to, can Romero touch Adesanya? Adesanya is one of the best strikers in the UFC, maybe ever. It may be premature, but watching him is impressive. Not many guys have the movement he does. It’s a shame we’ll never see him face off against Wonderboy, that would be a fun fucking fight. It is very difficult to match up with a fighter like Adesanya, if you stay at a distance, he can easily out point you. If you try to bum rush him, his takedown defense is very good and he can knock you on your ass. Not to mention, every time he has been taken down, he has managed to get back up almost immediately. Adesanya’s takedown defense, and escapability might not get enough credit. I was not a big believer in Adesanya heading into the Whitaker fight, but man did he prove me wrong. Adesanya is a patient and intelligent fighter, and that is a deadly combination. He is 18-0 as an MMA fighter, 7-0 in the UFC. His TKO over Brunson was impressive, his fight against Anderson Silva was meh (I thought he took it easy on his idol), his decision win against Kelvin was one of the best fights I’ve ever watched, and his win over Whitaker was a masterpiece.

Romero is an American Top Team guy and trains with Masvidal, so he might have some tricks up his sleeve. But Adesanya is at one of the hottest gyms in the world at the moment, City Kickboxing in New Zealand, and they’re probably ready for them. I’m hoping this is an exciting fight, I think it will be a measured fight with bursts of violence. Romero is not a volume striker. Adesanya is a smart fighter and won’t put himself in danger. Romero knows he has to catch him to get a win. I think it will look like the recent Jon Jones fights and Adesanya will stay at a distance and pick Romero apart. He might drop Romero from volume of strikes, but Romero doesn’t get put away.

Israel Adesanya by decision

WEILI ZHANG V. JOANNA JEDRZEJCZYK

The main event may be between two fighters that have a grudging respect for each other, but the co-main event is between two fighters that do not have respect for each other. Joanna made comments about coronavirus that pissed off Weili, and Weili flipped the bird to Polish fans waving the Polish flag. Both of these women have been talking trash. There is no love lost between these two. On top of the strong dislike for each other, there is a lot of emotion for each fighter coming into this fight. Weili is defending her title for the first time and during training camp, there was the outbreak of the coronavirus that caused her to move her training camp twice. She also feels pressure to perform for her county during this pandemic, especially with Joanna making comments about it. Joanna on the other hand, has lost 3 straight title fights and this is probably her last chance to regain her belt. It came out before her last fight, a win over Michelle Waterson, that she had a nasty breakup with her fiance during her training camps for the Rose fights. That could have been a big factor in those fights. Joanna has also been dealing with criticism from people about her apparent lack of training, because of her instagram friendly life, but Joanna insists she’s as motivated as ever.

Now to the actual fighting, this is a match up that should deliver a classic.Both are active and voluminous strikers. Weili has the edge in power and overall athleticism, we don’t really know about her cardio since it hasn’t really been tested. Weili likes to charge forward and overpower her opponents and get them on the ground and get a finish. That is how she won the title over Jessica Andrade. A 40 second blitz that ended before it really started. It was an impressive win.

Not to discount Weili’s talent, but I don’t think Andrade is that good, and I was not impressed by Weili’s win. Weili was gifted that title shot, after Andrade miraculously won the title with a ridiculous piledriver of Rose Namajunas. Joanna will be the best fighter Weili has faced thus far in her career. Joanna doesn’t have the finishing power that Weili has, and Rose was able to expose Joanna’s chin, but Joanna for the most part has not been finishable, Valentina couldn’t finish her. Joanna’s cardio is on a different level, and she has records for most strikes thrown. 

Joanna will do best if she can keep this fight at distance and pick her shots, but I don’t think she would have that much of a problem fighting from the clinch, but it would leave her open to a takedown. Weili is going to try to push forward because she prefers to get close and wants to impose her will and power. This will be a violent fight. It will be a fun fight.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk by decision

BENEIL DARIUSH V. DRAKKAR KLOSE

This is a match up of two guys that are good lightweights, but not top 10. It just shows how deep the lightweight division is. These guys could probably contend for the Bellator lightweight title. Dariush is on a 3 fight winning streak with wins over Thiago Moises, Drew Dober, and Frank Camacho. Since his fight against Moises, he has used his wrestling a lot more to great effect. On the Anik and Florian Podcast, I correctly predicted that he would utilize his wrestling to beat Dober, and that’s what he did. He has seemed to put it together and stopped caring what his opponents would do and started fighting to his strengths. His wins over Dober and Camacho were both submission wins. He is using his wrestling to get takedowns and aggressively going for submissions. Klose is also on a 3 fight winning streak with those wins coming against Lando Vannata, Bobby Green, and Christos Giagos, all 3 by decision. All 5 of his wins are by decision, and all 6 of his UFC fights went to decision. Klose has the longest average fight time in UFC history at 15:00.. So, it’s hard to take his claims that he is going to finish Dariush seriously. Nonetheless, Klose is 11-1 and is a very good fighter as well. He is more athletic and a better striker than Dariush. He is going to try to keep the fight standing and try to out point Dariush, especially since he can’t finish anyone. Dariush is going to try to take this fight down to the ground.

Beneil Dariush by 1st round submission

NEIL MAGNY V. LI JINGLIANG

Li Jingliang draws the task of welcoming Neil Magny back to the UFC after a nearly 2 year layoff. Magny has had one of those careers that never really seemed to get going. He always had talent, but never made the run that you expected of him. He has wins over Tim Means, Kelvin Gastelum, Johny Hendricks, Carlos Condit, Erick Silva, Hector Lombard and some other guys I’ve never heard of. That is a pretty good list of wins. Even still, he’s never seemed to crack the top half of the rankings and get close to a title shot. He has to be thinking of that in his comeback to the UFC. He needs to come back with a bang. He is excited to be back and he wants to make a statement. Magny has decent reach so his game plan is usually to stay at distance and try to pick his opponents apart. He prefers boxing matches. He doesn’t want his opponents to get too close or to wrestle. Magny is not a great counter fighter.

Magny’s opponent, Jingliang, is a classic wrestler that turned into a deadly striker. He landed some nasty TKO/KOs and fell in love with his standup game. He will move forward and go for the kill. He has taken some big shots and gotten rocked. Jingliang’s fights have gone like this, he moves forward in the first round and eats a lot of big shots, then he puts them down. Jingliang is on a 3 fight winning streak and is coming off an impressive KO win over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, and can a win here could get him his 2nd 4 fight winning streak. This guy is talented and he could get a title shot in the next year or so. He has great power and a strong chin. The wrestling game is there if he needs it. 

Li Jingliang by 2nd round TKO

ALEX OLIVEIRA V. MAX GRIFFIN

This has potential fight of the night written all over it. These guys both like to stand and trade. Both guys have lost 3 of their last 4 fights and are desperate for a win. Oliveira is on a 3 fight losing streak with losses coming from Gunnar Nelson, Mike Perry, and Nicolas Dalby. Oliveira is a reckless brawler, he throws power, spinning, jumping, and other crazy ass strikes to get knockouts. It isn’t very efficient and sums up why he is on a 3 fight losing streak. When Oliveira was winning more than losing, he was utilizing a strong wrestling/clinch game to overpower his opponents. If he can get back to that, he could get a win here. But he seems to have lost confidence and just goes out for brawls. Max Griffin is a very similar fighter, but a better athlete. He is a tough son of a bitch, aggressive, and not very technical. It turns into entertaining fights, but it leads to leaving the decision to the judges. Oliveira has more power, but both of these guys are going to come out swinging. They’re both going to gas out in the 2nd round, but they’re going to keep going until the end. It is going to be an entertaining, and bloody affair.

Max Griffin by decision

PRELIMS

SEAN O’MALLEY V. JOSE ALBERTO QUINONES

Finally, the return of Suga Sean O’Malley. It’s his first trip to the octagon in 2 years. He has done grappling tournaments, and done very well, so is octagon rust a factor? He says he hadn’t been slacking in his training during his suspension, that is a good sign. He has shown a lot of talent and is a very promising prospect. Quinones is a power striker/wrestler combination fighter. He likes to throw big strikes to get close and control his opponents. It will be hard for him to do this against Suga. Suga is faster and is a good grappler as well. Quinones seems to be a low level gatekeeper.

Sean O’Malley by 2nd round submission

MARK MADSEN V. AUSTIN HUBBARD

Mark Madsen, 2016 Olympic silver medalist in Greco Roman wrestling, is making his second trip to the octagon. He won his debut in Copenhagen. A 75 second TKO win. He just rushed his opponent, took him down, and ground and pounded him into oblivion. It was brutal and efficient. Madsen showed off his Olympic athleticism. He is going up against Austin Hubbard. Hubbard does everything pretty well. He is 1-1 in the UFC. He lost his debut to Davi Ramos and won his second fight against Kyle Prepolec. He mostly wrestled against Prepolec. That probably won’t work against Madsen. 

Mark Madsen by 1st round TKO

RODOLFO VIEIRA V. SAPARBEK SAFAROV

I don’t know much about either of these guys. Rodolfo Viereira is apparently a world class Brazilian Jiu Jitsu guy. Saparbek Safarov was a brawling light heavyweight making his middleweight debut.

Rodolfo Vieira by 1st round submission 

GERALD MEERSCHAERT V. DERON WINN

Gerald Meerschaert is a grinder. His wrestling and grappling is good and 22 of his 30 career wins come by submission. He is going up against mini DC Deron Winn. We know Winn’s wrestling is good. Winn beat Eric Spicely in his debut, an impressive win where he threw an impressive amount of strikes and mixed in a solid wrestling game. His second fight, he missed weight, and admitted he didn’t take training camp seriously and lost. He is coming to make up for the mistakes he made in his last fight and is looking to get his second win in the octagon.

Deron Winn by decision

GIGA CHIKADZE V. JAMALL EMMERS

Giga Chikadze by 2nd round TKO

DANAA BATGEREL V. GUIDO CANNETTI

Danaa Batgerel by decision