I may have the worst luck when it comes to UFC PPVs. I got married on June 28th (date picked well before the UFC announced the event for that day), the night of the best card of the year in UFC 317. Now when I can watch it is UFC 318, the worst PPV I have seen in a long time. Surely I say the card is one of the worst all the time, but statistically they are mostly when the BMF belt is the headline. Fake belt title fight with 2 guys that I love so much I hate that the UFC makes them fight each other. Co-main is between 2 guys that are 2+ fights away from a title shot (insane). Then Kevin Holland is trying to build a welterweight resume against a 38 year old DRod. Pitbull is back for some reason on a main card against company man Dan Ige. Lastly, to round out the main card we have Michael fucking Johnson fighting? I am sorry, you can’t expect people to pay $80+ for this Dana, you are out of your damn mind. Whatever, I am going to probably pay $80 for this because I am a sheep and love violence. Enough whining, here are my picks for the night.
Main Card
Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier Lightweight Bout
It broke my heart when Dana had them rematch the first time. It broke my heart when Dana put Max up against Gaethje. It breaks my heart that I now have to watch one of my favorite fighters retire against another one of my favorite fighters. These retirement fights are always so finicky. There is the logic that they aren’t as motivated since they know this is it for them. Then there is the logic that they can throw everything they have into this one since it is their last go. We have seen Poirier beat Max twice now, once when both of them weren’t who they are today, and the other 6 years ago (even though it feels like yesterday). Even though Max absolutely destroyed Gaethje, who knocked out DP, I still think Poirier has the edge here. Their boxing is pretty equal but Poirier has more power and size behind each punch. It is what we saw in their 2nd bout, Max is going to land just as much, but just won’t be able to get that damage that DP will be able to inflict.
Dustin Poirier by Decision +120 (I don’t know if I can bring myself to bet on this)
Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov Middleweight Bout
Booooo this fight. What has Paulo Costa shown in his last 5 bouts that makes him worthy of a co-main event? He has been slow, overly patient, and BORING. Roman Kopylov has looked great in his last 2, putting a beating on the emotional lesbian that is Chris Curtis and eeking out a decision against Cesar Almeida. I will preface the rest of this paragraph by stating that I am a stupid man. There is no reason in the world I should be betting on Paulo Costa after the performances he has put up lately. Except that he said he is going to return to his brawler style and chase the knockouts, which is how we saw him rise up the ranks to a title shot. I am giving him my blind faith, mostly because he is a sizable enough dog against someone I believe to be an ok at best fighter in Kopylov. Bring us to glory Paolo.
Paulo Costa by 2nd Round TKO +185 1 unit
Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez Welterweight Bout
Another absolute head scratcher on the main card. Kevin Holland is coming off an impressive win against Vicente Luque, then has a quick turnaround to fight DRod? Sure DRod is on a 2 fight winning streak but this is a pretty lateral move of a fight to take so soon. I am probably one of the biggest DRod fans you’ll find, crisp boxing and always puts on a fun fight, which is why I was hoping at this point in his career he would just take out younger guys and other old heads. This is purely a fight to beef up Kevin Holland’s resume as he tries to climb up to a title fight rematch against JDM.
Kevin Holland by 3rd Round Submission (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -105 1 unit
Dan Ige vs. Patrício Pitbull Featherweight Bout
Pitbull was my biggest disappointment of the year when he fought like a deer in headlights against Yair Rodriguez. That was just 3 months ago and now we get to see him up against another pressure fighter in Dan Ige who will move forward for 15 minutes and make his life hell. If Pitbull loses this one it is time to hang up the gloves and call it a career. I wish he was able to make it to the UFC earlier but this stint is just embarrassing.
Dan Ige by Decision (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -120 1 unit
Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber Lightweight Bout
This shouldn’t even be on the main card of an apex event. What the fuck is going on that they couldn’t find any decent fights for this card? I have been watching Michael Johnson for pretty much my entire time being a UFC fan, I don’t know if this is a pseudo retirement fight for him (which would suck since he is coming off 2 wins, they should have given him a cupcake fight) or if Dana hates him and wants to see him destroyed to get him off his contract. Zellhuber was one judge away from being on a 4 fight win streak and fighting a big name in the lightweight division. Now he has to beat up on a 200 year old Michael Johnson. The world is a cruel place.
Daniel Zellhuber by 1st Round TKO (Prop Finish Line) -125 1 unit
Prelims
Kyler Phillips vs. Vinicius Oliveira Bantamweight Bout
Vinicius Oliveira by Decision -148 2 units
Marvin Vettori vs. Brendan Allen Middleweight Bout
Brendan Allen by Decision (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -120 1 unit
Francisco Prado vs. Nikolay Veretennikov Welterweight Bout
Francisco Prado by 2nd Round TKO -148 1 unit
Ateba Abega Gautier vs. Robert Valentin Middleweight Bout
Ateba Abega Gautier by 1st Round TKO (SGP TKO/KO in Rd 1) +140 1 unit
Prelims
Adam Fugitt vs. Islam Dulatov Welterweight Bout
Islam Dulatov by 1st Round TKO (SGP TKO/KO in Rd 1) +110 1 unit
Jimmy Crute vs. Marcin Prachnio Light Heavyweight Bout
Jimmy Crute by by 1st Round TKO (Prop Finish Line) -135 1 unit
Ryan Spann vs. Łukasz Brzeski Heavyweight Bout
Ryan Spann by 1st Round Submission (Win in Rds 1-2) -160 2 units
Brunno Ferreira vs. Jackson McVey Middleweight Bout
Jackson McVey by 2nd Round Submission +400 1 unit
Carli Judice vs. Nicolle Caliari Flyweight Bout
Nicolle Caliari by Decision +300 1 unit
DraftKings Lineup:
That is all I have for you on this mediocre PPV night. I could not find many underdogs I liked, which put my head in a blender and had me take the first 2 huge dogs hoping to strike gold. Otherwise these lines are fairly lopsided so I did a lot of props, may switch some of those to parlays later in the night and as I get drunker so make sure to follow along on twitter. Remember to stick to your units and gamble responsibly. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!