I pray to Dana before bed every night to get beautiful cards like this one. 2 great title matchups, a title eliminator, a standup war between 2 lovable vets, and undefeated Sean O’Malley; cannot ask for more. I went uncomfortably square on this card, the favorites just seem so much better than their competition, and didn’t really like any of the major underdogs. Izzy vs Cannonier should be a fun show if Izzy doesn’t point fight, Volk vs Holloway III better have the correct ending this time, Sean Strickland hopefully gets his brain knocked right by Pereira, Robbie Lawler set up for a banger with Barberena, and O’Malley gets another shot against a real bantamweight for the first time since Chito. I can’t contain myself, let’s get into these picks/
Main Card
Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier Middleweight Championship Bout
Man this fight better not suck. I know I was really positive to start this blog, but watching Izzy lately has been like watching paint dry. He really likes to coast to a boring decision and not put himself in any danger these days. Cannonier is arguably the 2nd most dangerous opponent he has had as champion (Yoel, Costa would not be able to hold Jared’s jock strap), so I really don’t think that Izzy will change his style too much. Expect a lot of straight strikes from the outside while Cannonier chases Izzy down to lose a meh decision. If this does end up being a firefight, I still see Izzy getting this to the judges, Cannonier’s chin is pretty unbelievable. Hoping I am up money by this point and can just do 1 little unit on Izzy by decision while waiting for all my parlays to hit on him straight up.
Israel Adesanya by Decision (Prop Line) +120 1 unit (Also gonna take him -450 in some parlays)
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway Featherweight Championship Bout
I can’t remember feeling sicker to my stomach from a decision than in their last bout. Holloway took what I thought were 3 clear rounds to earn the nod, but I guess I was wrong. Volk has looked a lot better in his last 2, but Holloway made Ortega look like an amature and is by far and away the best striker in the division. Similar to the last 2 fights, the only way Max loses is if he gets taken to the ground. I have to imagine he is going to be better at checking the kicks in this one, so as long as he fights smart and at his distance, he should be able to piece Volk up once again and finally get that belt back to Hawaii where it belongs.
Max Holloway by Decision +170 1 unit
Sean Strickland vs. Alex Pereira Middleweight Bout
Sean Strickland is entering dangerous territory for me. I have bet against this guy no less than a million times and he keeps fucking winning. I can’t stand him, he pretends to be this crazy guy that injures his teammates during sparring because that makes him an alpha, then will put on the most boring fucking points fighting style you could imagine. He was absolutely right though that the UFC made this fight to give Pereira a striker before leading to a title shot against Izzy. Pereira is a force to be reckoned with on the feet, some of the heaviest hands in the division in only a few fights. I really do not know how well his ground game will hold up if Strickland chooses to take it there, but at any moment on the feet this can be ended by the precise and powerful Pereira.
Alex Pereira by 2nd Round TKO -105 2 units
Robbie Lawler vs. Bryan Barberena Welterweight Bout
Oh boy this is the fight that gets people ready for the big ones. I was excited for Robbie Lawler v Nick Diaz II but this feels like the actual fight that was supposed to be. These guys have absolutely no desire to go to the ground or point fight. Robbie said he won’t be baited to get into a brawl, but that’s a crock of shit. These guys are going to stand in the center and exchange till one can’t stand no more. The man with his hand held up at the end, with be the Ruthless Robbie Lawler.
Robbie Lawler by 3rd Round TKO -120 1 unit
Pedro Munhoz vs. Sean O’Malley Bantamweight Bout
Honestly, Pedro Munhoz probably isn’t a bad bet at all. He is way too big of a dog for a guy who has no good wins on his resume. That being said, I am a sucker for hype trains. Suga Sean is just an electric character who always shows up with entertaining scraps. Pedro will be constantly trying to get inside while Sean pieces him up from the outside with his length. If Munhoz can dirty box he has a good chance, but I see Sean controlling this from top to bottom but not being able to put Pedro away in 15 min. Have a strong feeling that Sean will employ a similar style to Izzy from his last few title defenses.
Sean O’Malley by Decision (Prop Line) +150 1 unit (Also putting Sean in parlays -295)
Prelims
Brad Riddell vs. Jalin Turner Lightweight Bout
Jalin Turner by 1st Round Submission -145 1 unit
Ian Garry vs. Gabriel Green Welterweight Bout
Ian Garry by Decision-175 3 units
Jim Miller vs. Donald Cerrone Welterweight Bout
Donald Cerrone by 1st Round TKO +165 1 unit
Brad Tavares vs. Dricus du Plessis Middleweight Bout
Dricus du Plessis by 2nd Round TKO -145 2 units
Early Prelims
Uriah Hall vs. André Muniz Middleweight Bout
Andre Muniz by 1st Round Submission (Prop Line) -120 1 unit
Jessica Eye vs. Maycee Barber Flyweight Bout
Maycee Barber by Decision (Prop Line) -135 1 unit
Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Julija Stoliarenko Bantamweight Bout
Julija Soliarenko by 1st Round Submission +130 1 unit
DraftKings Lineup:
That is all I have for this awesome card. Wrote this one a bit earlier than usual because I am going away for the weekend. Really hoping I can convince all my friends to watch at least the PPV at a bar or beach house, but I will be watching no matter what. Stay tuned to the twitter account in case there are some parlays thrown around or if there are any changes in the fights after the weigh-ins. Stick to your units and gamble responsibly, this is a long card and everyone will likely be very drunk while watching. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!