We have a cute little fight night this beautiful Saturday evening. Only 9 fights on the card, bet it still gets dragged out over 5 hours. The main event is arguably one of the most exciting main events on paper that you could draw up with no title implications. The rest of the card is ok. There are some lopsided lines but nothing horrible, but I foresee a good amount of finishes on this one relative to how many fights there are. This is a good little setup card into a big PPV next weekend with 2 title fights. I feel like in recent history the cards before and after PPVs have been absolute booty. If Angela Hill’s next fight gets cancelled I am going on a hunger strike until she fights again (random but someone needs to stick up for her).
Let’s get into these picks:
Main Card
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Ciryl Gane Heavyweight Bout
I can’t lie, I woke up this morning without having looked at the lines expecting to pick Gane as the underdog. Color me shocked to see he is over a 2-1 favorite. Gane has had a great rise in the UFC so far, handling pretty much every opponent he’s faced with some highlight reel KOs sprinkled in. He has some of the best kicks in the weight class and is absolutely massive. His rise reminds me a lot of another fight he was running through his competition till he hit a large, african wall. That’s right, Jair. Jair was absolutely murdering people while climbing the ranks until he lost a top contender fight to the Predator, Francis Ngannou. Jair is being supremely disrespected here with this line. He has the power to end this fight at any time he wants, and it is very likely this fight stays standing. Gane has the advantage in terms of keeping distance, but I will not take a guy -255+ in a heavyweight slugfest against guy with bombs for hands.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik by 3rd Round TKO +215 1 unit
Nikita Krylov vs. Magomed Ankalaev Light Heavyweight Bout
Went back and forth on this one for a little while. Krylov looked great in his last bout against Johnny Walker. Used his grappling really well and completely neutralized Walker’s unique striking. I watched film on both these guys and after really analyzing it, Ankalaev is still the better grappler. Ankalaev is also the better striker. Don’t really see anywhere Krylov has an advantage other than looks at most. Didn’t want to drink too much juice on this one so I am taking Ankalaev to not see the judges.
Magomed Ankalaev by 2nd Round TKO -120 (Prop line) 1 unit (might also dabble in the over 1.5 rds -155)
Montana De La Rosa vs. Mayra Bueno Silva Flyweight Bout
This is the closest line on the entire card. Montana De La Rosa has dropped 2 of her last 3 with an unimpressive win over Mara Borella. Mayra Bueno dropped a shocking loss 2 fights ago against Maryna Moroz but then had a great showing against Mara Borella. With the line nearly being pick’em, I am riding with the lady coming off a win and a few more impressive wins in her short UFC history.
Mayra Bueno Silva by Decision -117 1 unit
Pedro Munhoz vs. Jimmie Rivera Bantamweight Bout
*Bias Alert*
Jimmie is my dude, trained under him for 2 years and he is just one of the nicest dudes on the planet. LIstened to Serra talk about him a couple weeks ago and talk about how his attitude completely changes once he enters that octagon and just becomes a pitbull always moving forward and exchanging. He nearly won 13 minutes of his fight against Yan but just kept getting dropped late, put up a strong performance against Aljo, smoked Cody Stamann, and not to mention already beat Munhoz. Munhoz has been on the wrong side of some decisions recently, but doesn’t seem to have gotten any better since their first fight. This will be a back and forth affair, don’t get me wrong, but if these men keep their consciousness then Jimmie is having his hand raised.
Jimmie Rivera by Decision -145 2 units
Alex Caceres vs. Kevin Croom Featherweight Bout
Alex Caceres has had a rebirth lately, winning 3 straight against actually solid competition. Before that he dropped 7 of his last 12 fights. Kevin Croom had a great win over Roosevelt Roberts in his last one that got overturned because of weed so that’s bullshit. Before that he was also on a 3 fight win streak. The thing that ultimately set all of this apart to me is that there is no way on God’s green earth that I would ever take Bruce Leeroy -185, am I a fucking chump?
Kevin Croom by 2nd Round Submission +160 1 unit
Prelims
Alexander Hernandez vs. Thiago Moisés Lightweight Bout
Thiago Moises by 3rd Round Submission +185 1 unit
Alexis Davis vs. Sabina Mazo Bantamweight Bout
Sabina Mazo by Decision -120 (Prop line) 1 unit
Vince Cachero vs. Ronnie Lawrence Bantamweight Bout
Ronnie Lawrence by Decision -160 1.5 units
Dustin Jacoby vs. Maxim Grishin Light Heavyweight Bout
Dustin Jacoby by Decision -165 2 units
DraftKings Lineup:
That is all I have for you folks. We do not have a lot of opportunities to win money tonight, so we need to make every single fight count. No stupid bets here and stick to your units to the best of your ability. I have had an issue where I am very drunk by the main card and my unit jumps up to nearly 3 times the size of my usual one and the main event itself is usually 5 times my unit. Let’s get ready for some violence and as always, may luck be your lady tonight!