THE TRILOGY ENDS THIS WEEKEND! What an awesome ride the Stipe vs DC rivalry has been, we haven’t had a true trilogy like this in ages, maybe since all the Pride vs UFC beefs. This card seems pretty hastily put together and very random, but there are some awesome matchups to be watched. There aren’t too many heavy underdogs I was all that interested in taking, but there are some close lines that we can take advantage of instead. Violence is here and I need to get these picks up before I head out on vacation for the weekend.
Stipe vs DC 3 is all I have wanted and we got it a lot sooner than I expected, with Stipe having to be a first responder and everything. The Suga show is back and hoping to make a giant leap into the top 10 with a win over Chito as the co main on a PPV. JDS vs Jair is just fireworks waiting to happen, these guys both know it doesn’t take a lot of wins to be back in the title picture. Herbert Burns returns and is going to see if he can keep destroying whoever is put in front of him like big bro. Merab will ragdoll John Dodson, and that is that.
Let’s get into these picks:
Main Card
Stipe Miocic vs Daniel Cormier Heavyweight Title Bout
I feel like this fight seemed so much further away than it really was. You have to love that about heavyweights, you do not need a crazy amount of notice. Stipe is looking to put the nail in DC’s coffin and prove that first fight was an absolute fluke. Stipe has the better boxing as we saw in the second match, just needs to show that earlier in the bout. His gas tank is there, his wrestling is by far and away worse, but it isn’t bad. Every punch he throws could be the one to finish the fight, he just needs to land them early and more often.
DC is one of the GOATs. I hate to admit it because I have always been a Jones guy for god knows why. DC had the perfect gameplan in the first fight and put Stipe’s lights out. Unfortunately in the second fight, he didn’t get that early finish and his tank ran out. I have seen online that DC can take Stipe down at will, and that is absolutely true for the first 2 rounds, but the amount of energy he has to exert in order to do that will make the last 3 rounds miserable for him.
This fight will go down like the second, DC is going to shoot and wrestle and dirty box early, but will not get the finish he needs. The rest of the fight will be a lot of stand up at a distance, and Stipe will take advantage. Stipe will go to the body shots a lot earlier in this one after seeing the kind of damage they can do and likely win a couple more rounds than previously. Also, DC is like 65 years old, I can’t imagine he has gotten any better than the last fight.
Stipe Miocic by 5th Round TKO -105 1 unit
Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera Bantamweight Bout
I am all aboard the Suga train. This guy fights how people expect fighters to fight. He stands, hits often, and hits with a purpose. Looks like the guy hasn’t had a meal in his 25 years of life, but still is able to knock people the fuck out. His length at 135 is just absurd and he doesn’t really seem to have an issue cutting. All of that being said, I really wanted to take Chito here. He is a +210 underdog and has way more experience with a far better grappling pedigree. I hate the line so goddamn much here. I have gone back and forth non stop, but I have decided to not let the lines deter me from who I truly think will win. Even if Vera gets Suga to the ground, these lengky guys are so hard to keep down, he will pop back up and pepper him with strikes till its all over.
Sean O’Malley by Decision -300 3 units
Junior dos Santos vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik Heavyweight Bout
Oh man what a fight this is!!! I love JDS, I love Jair, and to be perfectly honest, IDGAF who wins. JDS 6 years ago likely wins this fight without a problem. Now, he has no chin and needs to fight the perfect fight to beat anyone. Jair is not the most technical guy out there, but just needs 1 second to end this thing. Jair is going to win and it’ll be scary to watch when all is said and done.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik by 1st Round TKO -135 1 unit
Herbert Burns vs Daniel Pineda Featherweight Bout
Herbert Burns is on a warpath and no one will stop him on his way to the top. Ok that isn’t true, but guys like Daniel Pineda will not stop him on his way to the top. His BJJ is obviously higher level than most guys on the roster, but he also has devastating power in all of his strikes. He reminds me a lot of this welterweight contender whose name escapes me at the moment.
Herbert Burns by 2nd Round Submission -290 3 units
John Dodson vs Merab Dvalishvili Bantamweight Bout
John Dodson might just be my least favorite fighter in all of MMA that isn’t named Dillon Danis. He runs and is a midget. His last fight was great but that was an extreme outlier in the last 4 years. Merab will wrap him up and drag him to the ground several times and people will think it is boring and I will laugh and be very very happy.
Merab Dvalishvili by Decision -240 3 units
Prelims
Jim Miller vs Vinc Pichel Lightweight Bout
This one was a tough one to call. Both of these guys have very similar skill sets, similar wins as of late (Roosevelt Roberts), and are just here to fight without much intention of a climb to the top. I went with Jim Miller here because he has more ways to end a fight. I picked it going to decision because both of these guys end up seeing the judges a lot, but Jim has so many KOs and Submissions on his record that there will be more for Vinc to be worried about. Additionally, Pichel is coming off hip surgery so we do not know how healthy he will be for this one.
Jim Miller by Decision +110 1 unit
T.J Brown vs Daniel Chavez Featherweight Bout
TJ Brown made his UFC debut earlier this year with a loss to Jordan Griffin after earning a contract from the Contender Series. He has a ton of talent, winning fights on the feet and ground almost every other it seems like. Daniel Chavez makes his debut coming off some highlight reel knockouts and wants to make a name for himself. I picked Chavez here because neither guy has faced that high level of competition so I want to ride with the dog, as simple as that.
Danny Chavez by 2nd Round TKO +136
Ashley Yoder vs Lívia Renata Souza Strawweight Bout
Livia Renata Souza by Decision -160 1 unit
Felice Herrig vs Virna Jandiroba Strawweight Bout
Virna Jandiroba by 2nd Round Submission -300 2 units
Early Prelims
Chris Daukaus vs Parker Porter Heavyweight Bout
Chris Daukaus by 1st Round TKO EV 1 unit
Kai Kamaka III vs Tony Kelley Featherweight Bout
Tony Kelley by 3rd Round Submission +190 1 unit
DraftKings Lineup:
That is all I have for this weekend of fights! Should be a good one and I hope I can get out of here with a few extra shekels in my pocket. Been doing pretty well the last few weeks again so need to keep the momentum going into Saturday. I will try to tweet out some O/U bets I like as the night goes on, but I may be a little too drunk to get anything out there. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!