Evan’s Educated Guesses: UFC Fight Island 3: Whittaker v. Till

UFC Fight Island 3 is here. I don’t get why they are calling it that when this isn’t the third event on Fight Island. I get that there was a PPV, but we’re not stupid. But I digress, this card is insanely long and I am totally cool with that. I love this card. This should be a fun one. It is littered with up and comers, some old names, and middle of the road guys. Then we have the main event, former champion Robert Whittaker, making his return to the octagon since losing his title, to face off against new middleweight Darren Till. Till called Whittaker out on Twitter and talked his way into this fight, and a win here gets him one step closer to a title shot against Israel Adesanya. Whittaker lost so badly to Adesanya that he probably needs to beat the entire division to get back to his title, and this is a good first step. Now let’s get down to business, here are my picks. Good luck.

MAIN CARD

ROBERT WHITTAKER V. DARREN TILL

A fight where I don’t want to see either guy lose. This is Whittaker’s first fight since losing his belt to Adesanya. Considering how Whittaker looked in that fight, maybe it’s a smart move on Till’s part to be afraid of Yoel Romero. Whittaker had health issues after those wars with Romero, and had to pull out of a couple of fights. Then looked defeated before the fight even started against Adesanya. Whittaker looked great against Romero, not many have done that, and managed to beat him twice. Adesanya knew that Whittaker was worn down and emotional heading into the fight, and taunted him into a beating. Whittaker kept charging into Adesanya’s range and Adesanya just picked him apart. It was a bad enough of a win that Whittaker will have to build himself back up to get another title shot.

Till was an absolute monster at welterweight, but after 2 consecutive 2nd round finishes — one in a title fight against Tyron Woodley, the other against Jorge Masvidal — he made the move up to middleweight. His debut went well with a split decision win over Kelvin Gastelum. It wasn’t the most exciting fight, but it was a big win for Till. He wasn’t great at cutting weight, and not cutting down to 170 seems to be a great move for him. Till beat a couple of no names when he got to the UFC, then big wins over Cowboy Cerrone and Wonderboy Thompson got him a title shot. He knows a couple of big wins can get him a title shot. His first middleweight win was over Kelvin, who had a fight of the year war against the middleweight champion. If he can beat the former champion Whittaker too, Till can talk his way into a title shot.

Whittaker is a pressure fighter that moves forward, other than Adesanya fight, in a measured way and mixes up his striking and throws in the occasional takedown. Whittaker does have some wrestling in his back pocket if he needs it. Till is more of a counter striker that has immense power. It seems like a matchup that is destined for a finish or at least an action packed brawl. Whittaker likes to move forward and throw strikes. Till likes his opponents to come forward and throw strikes so he can find openings and knock them on their ass. But Whittaker is coming off his first loss (TKO loss) in 6 years, so we don’t know what Whittaker we will get. Whittaker has taken 8 months off since losing his title, is that enough time to recover and get back in the right headspace to regain his form? Is middleweight Till in good shape? He was big on social media during quarantine and admitted to not be in great shape. Either way, I think this will be a fun fight.

Robert Whittaker (-160) by decision

MAURICIO RUA V. ANTONIO ROGERIO NOGUEIRA

Two legends that I didn’t know were still fighting. I guess I say that every time they fight. It’s amazing that these two are still going. This is the trilogy fight between these two and Shogun is up 2-0 on Lil Nog. This fight is either going to be over in short order, is going to be a dragged out brawl that is crazy, or is going to be a staring contest. I like those odds of this being an entertaining fight. I have a feeling both guys are going to meet in the middle of the octagon and trade shots. I wish this was in the smaller cage, it feels like a fight that would be awesome in the smaller cage. But either way, I don’t think it lasts too long.

Mauricio Rua (-200) by 1st round TKO

FABRICIO WERDUM V. ALEXANDER GUSTAFSSON

Gustafsson makes his heavyweight debut against former champion Werdum. Based on Werdum’s last fight against Alexey Oleynik, it was a good decision by Gustafsson. Werdum looked terrible. He was out of shape and his cardio was not there. Gustafsson didn’t look like he moved up to heavyweight like Gian Villante, so maybe we will see the same Gustafsson as we saw at light heavyweight. Gustafsson is a diverse striker that has some grappling. He will try to keep this on the feet and he will try to tire out Werdum. Werdum’s gas tank was not there for the fight against Oleynik, so Gustafsson will try to take advantage of that. Werdum is a BJJ black belt with some power. He is going to try to grapple Gustafsson. He wants to take this to the mat and get the submission. I think Werdum is a bit past his prime.

Alexander Gustafsson (-330) by 3rd round TKO

CARLA ESPARZA V. MARINA RODRIGUEZ

This is an insanely tough fight for me to pick. I’ve been a Carla Esparza hater for a long time and I’ve been on the Marina Rodriguez hype train since her draw against Randa Markos. Esparza has been on a hot streak, riding a 3 fight winning streak against Virna Jandiroba, Alexa Grasso, and Michelle Waterson. They’ve been pretty close fights but Esparza started mixing her wrestling in, which is her strength and what propelled her to being the first strawweight champion in the UFC. Marina Rodriguez is 2-0-2 since joining the UFC with wins over Jessica Aguilar and Tecia Torres, and draws with Randa Markos and Cynthia Calvillo. Rodriguez has been impressive since debuting. Her striking is very good. She is a muay thai fighter, and her grappling is not as strong as expected for a brazilian. It is a very weird thing to see. This fight is going to come down to whether or not Esparza can successfully wrestle and get takedowns and control the fight or if Rodriguez can keep the fight on the feet and pick Esparza apart. Rodriguez is 4 inches taller and has 3 inches of reach advantage. I think Esparza is the best fighter Rodriguez will have faced and this is going to be a tough test for her.

Carla Esparza (+155) by decision

PAUL CRAIG V. GADZHIMURAD ANTIGULOV

This will be fun. These two guys have 43 combined fights and only 2 have gone to decision. This fight is almost guaranteed to be finished. 11 of Paul Craig’s 12 wins have been submissions. 15 of Antigulov’s 20 wins have been submissions. I am guessing this will turn into a grappling match that ends in submission. Both guys are going to try for crazy takedowns and crazy submissions. This one will be one to watch. Don’t miss this one.

Paul Craig (-135) by 1st round submission

ALEX OLIVEIRA V. PETER SOBOTTA

I have no idea what to expect from this fight. Both guys looked shaky on the scales. Fake Cowboy looked like a crackhead. Sobotta didn’t look like he could stand. Sobotta has already been cut from the UFC, so I expect him to show up and try to get a big win so he can stay. Crackheads are crazy and can fight, so don’t count Fake Cowboy out. But Fake Cowboy has been super inconsistent and we never know what we are going to get from him. I am going with the hungrier fighter here.

Peter Sobotta (+135) by decision

KHAMZAT CHIMAEV V. RHYS MCKEE

Pretty fucking crazy that Chimaev is already fighting again. I was hesitant to pick him because he is fighting a weight class down. If he fought at welterweight last week and middleweight this week, I think it would make more sense, but this feels weird. Granted, I still think Chimaev is going to win. It just seems nuts that he did a short fight camp. Absolutely dominated a guy. Then accepts another fight and cuts an extra 15 pounds on 10 days notice. It might be too much for the guy, so I wouldn’t be shocked by a huge upset here, but Chimaev looked pretty good on the scale. He is going up against Rhys McKee, who is pretty good but I don’t think he is good enough of a grappler to threaten Chimaev. I am curious to see Chimaev at welterweight on 10 days notice, but after watching him destroy John Phillips last week, I think this could be a similar showing.

Khamzat Chimaev (-1400) by 1st round submission

PRELIMS

FRANCISCO TRINALDO V. JAI HERBERT

Jai Herbert (+100) by decision

NICOLAS DALBY V. JESSE RONSON

Nicolas Dalby (-250) by decision

TOM ASPINALL V. JAKE COLLIER

Tom Aspinall (-300) by 1st round TKO

MOVSAR EVLOEV V. MIKE GRUNDY

Movsar Evloev (-200) by decision

TANNER BOSER V. RAPHAEL PESSOA

Tanner Boser (-270) by decision

BETHE CORREIA V. PANNIE KIANZAD

Bethe Correia (+130) by decision

RAMAZAN EMEEV V. NIKLAS STOLZE

Ramazan Emeev (-400) by 2nd round submission

NATHANIEL WOOD V. JOHN CASTANEDA

Nathaniel Wood (-425) by 1st round TKO

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT

ALEX OLIVEIRA V. PETER SOBOTTA