Jake’s Punch Lines UFC Fight Island 3

I do not know how Dana keeps doing it, but I swear these cards are better than the ones he was putting together pre pandemic. Not to mention how many fucking fights there are tonight. I am not sure if they put together 15 matchups just in case people dropped out, but holy crap I can’t believe there are actually 15 fights tonight. I am going to have a tough time really writing a lot about each fight, but I will do my best to give you some good picks to win us all some good dollars.

Darren Till has become one of my favorite fighters in the last few months through his social media hijinx and Robert Whittaker was one of my favorite fighters beforehand (mostly because Bobby Knuckles was such an incredible nickname). Shogun and Little Nog is a travesty that I will not be able to look away from, like a car crash. Super excited to see Gustafsson’s Heavyweight debut, not so excited it’s against Werdum. The Bear Jew is back, but I recently found out he isn’t actually jewish and that has removed a lot of my bias which is nice. Also… KHAMZAT CHIMAEV IS BACK! This dude fought 10 days ago and is back 15 pounds lighter and ready to keep building what is now a pretty large fanbase.

Let’s get into these picks

Main Card

Robert Whittaker vs Darren Till Middleweight Bout

This is such a fun fight that has had so much build up, I can’t believe it is finally here. It has been a little while since Whittaker’s lackluster return for the title unification bout, and he believes his time off was exactly what he needed to get back championship form. He took out a murderers row of middleweights on his way to being champion which included beating Yoel twice. He only has one loss at middleweight and that is to Izzy so you can’t really blame him. 

Darrent Till made his Middleweight debut at the end of last year after 2 disappointing losses at 170. It was a little bit of a slow fight against Kelvin which had them mostly sizing each other up and not exchanging too often. But from that bout, you could see Till absolutely belongs at 185. His strikes were fast and he was still strong in the clinch. The easier weight cut makes him look enormous in this division, he should have been here the whole time.

Till being a southpaw will make for an interesting striking matchup in this one. Till won’t have as much of a size advantage as he usually does, but he is such a talented Thai Boxer that he will be able to stand and exchange and likely win those battles. I feel like it is so obvious that Whittaker has done more in the division, but Till at his best is just so damn good, the 5 rounds will give him a lot of time to showcase just how good he can really be at this weight (not against a wrestler).

Darren Till by 4th Round TKO +115 1 unit

Maurício Rua vs Antônio Rogério Nogueira Light Heavyweight Bout

I am not wasting my time on this one, Shogun is younger, just take him.

Mauricio Rua by 1st Round TKO -205 2 units

Fabrício Werdum vs Alexander Gustafsson Heavyweight Bout

Farbricio Werdum looked so slow and old against Oleinik, USADA really destroyed this man. I know we haven’t seen Gustafsson at Heavyweight before, but I do not see a single way that Werdum is a better fighter than him at this stage in his career. This will be a great welcome to the big men for the Mauler.

Alexander Gustafsson by 2nd Round TKO -335 5 units

Carla Esparza vs Marina Rodriguez Strawweight Bout

This was one of the tougher fights to pick. Carla Esparza has been at the top of this weight class since it was created with her being the inaugural champion. She has taken out just enough up and comers to stay up top with her dominant ground game despite often having a height disadvantage. Then here comes Marina Rodriguez, the unbeaten, 5’7 striker looking to prove she needs to be at the top of this division. Now I like Carla a lot, but she will not have enough to be able to keep Marina down and the reach difference is going to be way too much on the feet.

Marina Rodriguez by Decision -200 1 unit

Paul Craig vs Gadzhimurad Antigulov Light Heavyweight Bout

Paul, it has been a long time of riding with you. Irrationally picking you time and time again because of your nickname and thinking you were in the tribe. That time unfortunately must come to an end. You almost lost to Shogun last year. You can’t be dropping fights like that to ancient guys, no matter how good they once were. Now this is the first time I have seen you as a favorite in a long time, and I just do not agree with that at all. Gad has not fought a lot lately but his 2 losses in a row are to far better competition than Craig has faced lately. Gad will outlast him and end up putting Paul’s lights out.

Gadzhimurad by 2nd Round TKO +110 1 unit

Alex Oliveira vs Peter Sobotta Welterweight Bout

Fake cowboy sucks. Peter Sobotta is better but has not fought for 2 years. If this fight was in 2019 Peter would be the favorite and I guarantee that. If you truly believe in ring rust pick Alex Oliveira, I do not and will be riding with Sobotta in this one.

Peter Sobotta by Decision +130 1 unit

Khamzat Chimaev vs Rhys McKee Welterweight Bout

KHAMZAT!!!! I fucking love this guy, the man obliterated a solid middleweight when he is a true welterweight. He is going to climb to the top of this weight class and I am here for it. I am jumping on this train early and will not be a naysayer while we wait for him to beat enough people to get a shot at the top 5. Rhys McKee is an awesome prospect and people are super excited for him to get his shot, but damn what a bad guy to make your debut against. 

Khamzat Chimaev by 2nd Round TKO -1400 (Way too big of a line but I am not picking against him)

Prelims

Francisco Trinaldo vs Jai Herbert Catchweight (160 lb) Bout

I am sick and tired of these gatekeeper/journeymen, whatever you want to call Francisco Trinaldo, taking out fresh young talent that can make the UFC much more interesting. In these cases, I am riding with the new blood in almost every instance of this. To be clear it’s not when any newcomer is getting welcomed, but when they come in against old heads just to get unceremoniously thrown to the wolves. Jai Herbert is going to win and fuck Trinaldo for missing weight so bad.

Jai Herbert by Decision +105 1 unit

Nicolas Dalby vs Jesse Ronson Welterweight Bout

Nicolas Dalby by Decision -300 2 units

Tom Aspinall vs Jake Collier Heavyweight Bout

Tom Aspinall by 1st Round TKO -325 2 units

Movsar Evloev vs Mike Grundy Featherweight Bout

Movsar Evloev by Decision -205 1 unit

Tanner Boser vs Raphael Pessoa Heavyweight Bout

Raphael Pessoa by Decision +220 1 unit

Bethe Correia vs Pannie Kianzad Bantamweight Bout

I really do not get why Bethe is the dog here, I like this pick and think people should take it with me. They are pretty equal in most categories, but Bethe has beaten better and has no business being +140.

Bethe Correia by Decision +140 1 unit

Ramazan Emeev vs Niklas Stolze Welterweight Bout

Ramazan Emeev by Decision -490 (won’t touch a line this big but I am sticking with Russians)

Nathaniel Wood vs John Castañeda Bantamweight Bout

Nathaniel Wood by 2nd Round Submission -480 (Also won’t touch this line, way too big but I like Wood) TAKE THE UNDER 

DraftKings Lineup:

That is all I have for you today, this blog was exhausting but I want to keep things rolling, no weeks off in 2020. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!