Evan’s Educated Guesses: UFC 251

Jorge Masvidal may be the Baddest Motherfucker for taking this fight on 6 days notice, but I’d like to think I am the Baddest Motherfucker for convincing my wife to pause a cross country road trip an extra day to watch these fights. I mean, who the fuck wants to miss the debut of Fight Island. Especially when it is being main evented by the Baddest Motherfucker, Street Jesus, Jorge Masvidal, coming to rescue this card on 6 days notice to take on the wrestling dynamo Kamaru Usman, who is coming off a 4th round TKO over Masvidal’s former BFF/roommate/teammate/training partner/hetero lifemate. But seriously, even if Masvidal didn’t take this fight, this card would still have 2 title fights. My personal favorite fighter, Max Holloway is the co-main event, looking to get his featherweight title back from Alexander Volkanovski. I am a bit worried that Holloway didn’t spar this training camp and had nearly all of his training camp over Zoom, but that could be a misdirection. Who the fuck knows? This is the Rona Era and we had 3 guys win on 2 days notice 2 weeks ago. But, I digress, here are my picks:

MAIN CARD

KAMARU USMAN V. JORGE MASVIDAL

I am a big Gilbert Burns fan, but him dropping out kind of gave us the match up we all wanted. It kind of sucks that we won’t get a huge build up to the title fight, with all of the press conferences and that stuff but this week has definitely had a lot of intrigue and gave us an emotional roller coaster that has been fun as hell. Masvidal is in a true no lose situation with this fight though. If he loses, he took this fight on 6 days notice and he is still the BMF for taking this fight on short notice and he got paid in the process. If he wins, well, he is the fucking champion and got paid in the process. Usman on the other hand was training for a different style fighter and is putting his belt and legacy on the line. Usman’s confidence in himself is high, rightfully so, but he has a whole lot to lose in this matchup and I definitely give him just as much, if not more, credit for taking this fight as I give Masvidal. 

Usman’s “Nigerian Nightmare” nickname is an apt one since joining the UFC in 2015 by winning The Ultimate Fighter. He is 11-0 in the UFC. His title win over Tyron Woodley in March 2019 was one of the most impressively dominant title wins in UFC history. He completely embarrassed Woodley. He followed that up with a solid performance against Covington. It was very close until he got the finish in the last minute of the 5th round. Usman was going to win the Covington fight whether he got that finish or not, if the round finished. Usman’s wrestling and grappling is next level. He is very strong and he has been able to control everyone he has faced so far. His last 4 wins were over Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos, Tyron Woodley, and Colby Covington. They are all BJJ/grapplers/wrestlers, and Usman dominated them. For this fight, he was preparing for Burns, who is in the same camp as him, so he moved to Team Elevation to work with Justin Gaethje and co. That was a great move, especially since open space striking was his weakest aspect of fighting. He probably hasn’t been there long, so we don’t know how many improvements he has made already, but you have to imagine there were some improvements. Not to mention, his standup game already looked better in his fight against Covington. If Usman’s standup game improves even more, that would be a scary prospect for the welterweight division. However, switching camps means he might have new coaches in his corner for this fight. How will that affect him? 

Squaring off against Usman, is the antithesis of Kamaru “Marty Snoozeman” Usman, the current coolest guy in the UFC, Jorge “Street Jesus” Masvidal. Masvidal went 1-2 in 2017, finishing with 2 consecutive decision losses (Demian Maia and Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson). He took all of 2018 off and came back as Street Jesus and had one of the best years in UFC history in 2019. He started in March with a 2nd round KO win against Darren Till, followed that with a 3 piece and a soda over Leon Edwards in the interview area. In July, he had the fastest KO in UFC history, the 5 second flying knee against Ben Askren. Then finished 2019 with the BMF title win by TKO doctor stoppage against Nate Diaz. He beat Diaz to a pulp for 3 straight rounds, it was a complete beat down. Masvidal has been fighting forever and it’s crazy how long it took the UFC to realize he was a star. He is entertaining as hell inside and outside of the octagon. His standup game is his strength, with a solid and underrated takedown defense. He’s got power in his hands, and his power translated well up to welterweight. Masvidal’s corner man tested positive for corona so he isn’t making the trip. Masvidal took this fight on a week’s notice, so how will this all affect him?

I would have loved to see this fight in a real, full fight camp. Seeing Masvidal take this on a week’s notice and have to cut 20 pounds in a week feels like there is an asterisk next to the fight. Granted, if Masvidal wins, there won’t be an asterisk. Masvidal has nothing to lose. Both guys have their paths to victory. Masvidal is going to want to keep this fight at a distance and box. His jab is effective. If he can utilize it and land some big shots, he has the power, that Covington doesn’t, to knock Usman out. Usman is going to want to get close and land shots from the clinch and/or take the fight to the mat. Masvidal’s takedown defense is insanely good, but Usman’s takedown percentage is insanely good as well. On a full fight camp I think this fight is more of a toss up, but on a week notice, having to cut 20 pounds quickly, seems like it will be a tough night for Masvidal.

Kamaru Usman (-230) by 3rd round TKO

ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI V. MAX HOLLOWAY

This is a really hard fight for me to call. Holloway is one of my favorite fighters overall. It’s hard not to like the guy. Then you have Volkanovski, who isn’t that bad of a guy either. It’s hard to root against either of these guys. Going into the first fight between Holloway and Volkanovski, Holloway was a decent favorite, then Volkanovski fought a perfectly executed gameplanned fight. Volkanovski chopped at the lead leg of Holloway and never really let him get started which is the way to beat Holloway. Volkanovski is an awkward matchup for Holloway. Volkanovski is the shorter fighter, but Volkanovski has longer reach. Holloway is a volume and pressure striker, so he will have to get close and punch down which is awkward. And while he got close, Volkanovski was throwing endless leg kicks. The first fight was a really good one, but Volkanovski game planned perfectly and won the fight. Holloway needs to make adjustments to win his title back.

Volkanovski has been 8-0 since joining the UFC. It seems he has gotten better each fight. He is a compact ball of muscle. Maybe a rugby background is a good place to start. Volkanovski at one point was a 200+ pound rugby player. Now he fights at 145 pounds and is a beast in the octagon. His last 3 wins are over Chad Mendes, Jose Aldo, and Max Holloway. He seems to be gaining confidence in himself, and says we haven’t even seen everything he has yet. Volkanovski’s gym, City Kickboxing, has been on a tear with 2 champions and he didn’t even try to wrestle that much in the first fight.

Earlier, I said Masvidal might have had the best year in UFC in 2019, Holloway, on the other hand, had a brutal year. He went 1-2, he opened the year losing an interim lightweight title fight to Dustin Poirier. Then he successfully defended his featherweight title against Frankie Edgar. But lost it in his next fight to Volkanovski. Holloway’s run up to and his reign as featherweight champion was impressive. He beat Jose Aldo and made Aldo into a has been (sorry Conor, but you caught him on a lucky punch). He put an absolute beat down on Brian Ortega to the point that he still hasn’t fought 1.5 years later. Holloway was considered the best featherweight of all time, then Volkanovski buzz sawed his legs with low leg kicks and took the title. Holloway mentioned his training camp taking place over zoom and that is worrisome for a guy trying to get his title back. 

Matt Serra always says, “matchups make fights,” and I am not a fan of this matchup for Holloway. Being taller but not having the reach advantage goes against Holloway’s strengths. Holloway has excellent footwork and boxing. He throws an insane amount of volume. He’s landed the most strikes in UFC history. If you look at the most strikes landed in a fight in UFC history, the top 10 list is littered with Holloway fights. But Volkanovski is a weird matchup because he’s shorter than him with a longer reach. Holloway is going to have to get close and punch down. It’s hard to find training partners to mimic that. It’s hard to prepare for that. Not to mention, getting close like that leaves him open to those leg kicks that propelled Volkanovski to victory in the first fight. And Holloway getting close also puts him at risk of a takedown. Volkanovski can wrestle as well. I really like Holloway, and he is one of the best. Maybe he made the adjustments to get his title back, but hearing him say he did his training camp over Zoom kind of scared me away.

Alexander Volkanovski (-220) by decision

PETR YAN V. JOSE ALDO

The first of three title fights of the night, for the vacant bantamweight title. It’s pretty impressive that Aldo was able to get this title shot. If he wins, he should thank Cejudo. I was shocked Aldo got his first shot at bantamweight gold in May when Cejudo gifted him a title fight. Aldo had to pull out for coronavirus visa issues, and Cruz stepped in. Cejudo retired, and I thought Aldo would have to actually win a bantamweight fight to get another title fight, but here we are. I love this matchup, so I will look past the amount of bantamweights skipped for a title shot. Petr Yan has lived up to the hype since coming to the UFC. His spot in the title match isn’t questionable.

Petr Yan is 6-0 in the UFC. He made a big splash in his debut with a 1st round TKO win over Teruto Ishihara. His last 3 wins were over John Dodson, Jimmie Rivera, and Urijah Faber. Dodson and Rivera were his biggest tests but he was able to get the wins. Dodson utilized his defense of running away, and Yan was able to hit him enough to get a win. Rivera tried boxing offensively to keep Yan off his front foot, and it was not a bad strategy. Against Urijah, he was toying with him, before KO’ing him in the 3rd round. Yan is a very strong boxer. Yan does tend to get off to slow starts before getting his timing down and then opening up his offense. 

Jose Aldo is trying to become a two division champion. He ruled the featherweight division for so long, now he wants to win the bantamweight title. His resume is very impressive, he has beat a lot of great fighters. It all seemed to go downhill with Conor McGregor. Conor broke him mentally in the lead up to that fight. His record from before the Conor fight is 3-5. He was 25-1 going into the Conor fight. Granted his losses were to Conor (two division champion), Max Holloway (two times, featherweight champion), Alexander Volkanovski (featherweight champion), and Marlon Moraes. Those are good fighters. The problem is that Aldo doesn’t fight like the Aldo that ruled WEC and UFC. He no longer throws those vicious leg kicks. He doesn’t fight defensively. In his last couple of fights he has been low output boxing, and then throwing bombs when he gasses out. Maybe it was the weight cut that was hurting him, or it was all the time in the octagon catching up to him. He looked pretty good in his bantamweight debut, even if he did lose the decision. 

This fight will be an entertaining brawl. I don’t know how long it will last, but both guys are boxers. Both guys like to move forward. Both guys are better when they move forward. Yan does not handle backing up well. If Aldo presses forward and brings back his leg kicks, he can definitely spring an upset. His wins over Renato Moicano and Jeremy Stephens in 2018 and 2019 showed he still has the pop to get TKO wins. Yan definitely has the power to put Aldo down. Yan has been on a tear. But Aldo will be his toughest test yet, and Aldo will press forward which Yan has not done well in the past. Yan has been known to get off to slow starts, Aldo has been known to get off to fast starts then gas out.

Jose Aldo (+180) by decision

JESSICA ANDRADE V. ROSE NAMAJUNAS

If UFC fighters create a union, Jessica Andrade should be the mascot. She miraculously won the strawweight title after getting picked apart and destroyed for 2 rounds and was about to be submitted only to pick Rose up and slam her on her fucking head. Then the UFC asks her to defend the title 3 months later across the world in China against someone who probably didn’t deserve a title shot yet. Andrade obliged and lost the title in 42 seconds. We all wanted to see the Andrade v. Rose rematch, we just didn’t think it would take over a year and that the title wouldn’t be on the line.

Rose teased retirement after losing her title to Andrade. It wasn’t too surprising. She has had mental health issues, so that coupled with the concussion from getting knocked out would definitely cause someone to consider a new job. But before that, Rose had been on quite a streak. A submission win over Michelle Waterson got her a title shot against the boogeywoman of the strawweight division, Joanna Jedrzejczyk. As the big underdog, Rose TKOd Joanna in the first round. Then Rose won the rematch in a close decision. It was the next fight that she went up against Andrade. The first 1.5 rounds was the best Rose we have seen. Her boxing was amazing. Andrade couldn’t touch Rose. Rose was picking her apart. Then Rose got a hold of Andrade and went for a kimura, Andrade, whose nickname is pile driver, lifted her up and slammed her on her head.

It’s pretty crazy that Andrade started at bantamweight and dropped all the way to strawweight and is still there. I forsure thought she would be at flyweight by now. Andrade is a pretty one dimensional fighter, move forward and use power to get the win. She lives by the sword or dies by the sword. It leads to very entertaining fights, but it can hurt her. Look at her losing her title in 42 seconds. She charged forward and got caught immediately and was put away quickly. Against Rose, it she was able to eat a lot of shots and keep moving forward. Then she was able to pile drive Rose to a championship victory. 

I think this fight will play out like the first fight, except the pile driver. Rose is great fighting at a distance, Andrade has the advantage in the clinch. If Rose keeps this fight at a distance like she was doing in the first 1.5 rounds, she will dominate. The problem for her is that Andrade charges forward like a bull. Rose’s grappling is good as well, so she doesn’t mind engaging, she just has to watch out for the slams. I have a feeling she will be more cautious about clinching and fighting in close quarters.

Rose Namajunas (-210) by decision

AMANDA RIBAS V. PAIGE VANZANT

Amanda Ribas is moving up to flyweight to get the biggest name on her resume and send Paige VanZant on her way packing out of the UFC. This is the last fight on PVZ’s UFC contract and I doubt she will re-sign since she says she makes more money everywhere else. Why take a beating and lose your money maker? Either way, she wasn’t that bad. But back to fighting. This is a nice opening fight for the pay-per-view. Smart move for Dana. Put the hot women on first. 

Amanda Ribas’ nickname should be hype killer because she beat Mackenzie Dern. That fight was really impressive. Her wrestling was very strong, and her striking was precise and technical. Then she was also able to out wrestle Randa Markos. Ribas is a very well rounded fighter. I’m curious how she will handle moving up a weight class, but Ribas is a very good prospect in her own right.

PVZ has had a pretty good run in the UFC. She is 5-3 but never had the sustained run to get a title shot. No one seemed to take her seriously. She also had injury issues. She is a solid grappler/wrestler. She has been able to get knockouts though.

This is an interesting matchup because of the fact that Ribas is moving up a weight class. I think Ribas is technically better in every area, we just need to see her against a bigger fighter. Both fighters probably want to take this to the ground.

Amanda Ribas (-800) by 2nd round submission

PRELIMS

VOLKAN OEZDEMIR V. JIRI PROCHAZKA

If the featured prelim is supposed to help sell the pay-per-view, Dana picked a good fight for that with this one. Oezdemir and Prochazka have a combined 43 wins with 35 of those coming by KO/TKO. Neither of these guys are wrestlers. This is going to be a standup battle. Since his 3 fight losing streak to Daniel Cormier, Anthony Smith, and Dominick Reyes, Oezdemir has adopted a pressure style and it has paid off so far, he is 2-0 since making the change (a 2nd round KO win over Ilir Latifi and a split decision win over Aleksandar Rakic). Kind of strange to think a guy nicknamed “No Time” wasn’t already a pressure fighter, but he was mostly a counter striker. Now for the most part, he is going to bring the fight forward and throw a lot of strikes. 

Jiri Prochazka is making his UFC debut and gets an ideal match up for his style. He is not a strong wrestler at all. Prochazka could be taken down and controlled often. Against Oezdemir, that probably shouldn’t be an issue. Oezdemir isn’t a threat for the takedown. Prochazka should be able to stay on the feet and slug it out. That is what Prochazka wants. He is a knockout specialist. He will be a counter striker, looking for the opening as Oezdemir moves forward.

While this is a good stylistic matchup for Prochazka, this is the toughest matchup he has faced. Oezdemir’s 3 UFC losses have come against the 3 best fighters he has faced. Prochazka has not faced anyone close to the level of DC, Anthony Smith, or Dominick Reyes. This is going to be a very tough matchup for him. Oezdemir is going to keep marching forward and Prochazka is going to search for a knockout. They both have heavy hands, so it might come to who can land first.

Volkan Oezdemir (-160) by 1st round TKO

ELIZEU ZALESKI DOS SANTOS V. MUSLIM SALIKHOV

Muslim Salikhov (-138) by decision

MAKWAN AMIRKHANI V. DANNY HENRY

Makwan Amirkhani (-200) by 2nd round submission

LEONARDO SANTOS V. ROMAN BOGATOV

Leonardo Santos (-170) by 1st round submission

MARCIN TYBURA V. ALEXANDR ROMANOV

Marcin Tybura (-115) by decision

RAULIAN PAIVA V. ZHALGAS ZHUMAGULOV

Zhalgas Zhumagulov (+140) by decision

KAROL ROSA V. VANESSA MELO

Vanessa Melo (+180) by decision

MARTIN DAY V. DAVEY GRANT

Davey Grant (+135) by 2nd round submission

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT

PETR YAN V. JOSE ALDO