Jake’s Punch Lines UFC Vegas 4

It is the weekend during the global pandemic so you know what that means, more sanctioned VIOLENCE! Last week was not great, ended better than it started, but by no means great. This card is only nine fights which is absolutely absurd, but we have less chances to bet wrong. Additionally, my bookie also opened up parlays on UFC fights (I have been fighting with him about this for quite some time) so I am going to try my best to provide a nice three to four fight winner. My DraftKings lineups have been decent so far, have only lost a 50/50 one week and have placed in normal contests in all but two weeks. In terms of following my picks I will always steer away from taking any favorite that is over -200 as I likely won’t put any money on them unless they are Amanda Nunes or Valentina Schevchenko. 

There is a case to be made that this card is worse than the Eye vs Calvillo card, outside of its main event, but there are some decent betting lines to take advantage of. The main and co-main for this card are pretty lopsided odds wise, but both will make for some entertaining battles. Poirier for a good amount of time looked like he was the 2nd best fighter at 155 with a ton of space behind him. Mike Perry is a fucking psychopath and just will not allow himself to have a fight that isn’t exciting. Otherwise, the card is made up of unranked matchups to promote some smaller names. 

Let’s get into these picks:

Main Card

Dustin Poirier vs Dan Hooker Lightweight Bout

Dustin Poirier is the fucking man. He only has 2 losses at lightweight, 1 to Khabib and 1 to Michael Johnson (I don’t know what happened to him but he used to be a killer). Six out of his nine 155 wins have been finished (5 KOs, 1 Submission). It is impossible to know how much a dominating loss like he endured against Khabib can weigh on a fighter for his next bout. 3 out of the last 5 people that fought Khabib previously have come back and won their next fight, 2 out of those 3 after 5 round title bouts.

Dan Hooker has a nice little 3 fight winning streak, joining in the fun of beating James Vick like the rest of the division and 2 big wins over top 10 fighters in Ragin Al and Paul Felder. The Felder decision was pretty suspect as we all know, and Ragin Al is pretty much just around to beat Kevin Lee whenever he gets too big headed. He fights long, using his height and reach to land from the outside, and can build on his strikes to eventually get that TKO on occasion. 

When looking at this fight, other than reach and height, I do not see a single spot where Hooker is better than Poirier. Poirier has some of the best boxing in the weight class, has better wrestling, and possibly kicks (that might be a wash). Poirier has much better wins in his portfolio, and no common opponents other than Jim Miller. All of that being said, I would only be picking Hooker to hedge my feelings since I want Poirier to win so damn bad. So I will be picking the clearly better, more experienced fighter in Dustin Poirier.

Dustin Poirier by 4th Round TKO -235 2 units

Mike Perry vs Mickey Gall Welterweight Bout

This one really had me contemplating everything I know about MMA. There are 2 certainties in this sport, 1 that Mike Perry is a fucking nutjob, the other being Mickey Gall lost to Diego Sanchez and was nearly twice his size. Mike Perry made the executive decision to not have any coaches attend this fight or help him train for his fight and will be bringing in his girlfriend to be in his corner and “enjoy the show”. Mickey Gall has only 2 losses in his short career, one being a back and forth war with Randy Brown, trading rounds being on top, and to Diego Sanchez where he looked great then had absolutely no gas tank. Under normal circumstances I would take Perry here. He can probably make things scary for Gall to start, swinging for the fences and such. These are not normal circumstances though, he was not prepared by anyone other than himself and a couple of tall twins, and he is a disgustingly large favorite. I will never ever take a -350 favorite when he has no real corner or camp. I am riding with Mickey for the sheer value.

Mickey Gall by 2nd Round Submission +260

Brendan Allen vs Kyle Daukaus Middleweight Bout

Both of these guys are on an absolute roll, Brendan Allen on a 6 fight winning streak and Kyle Daukaus is undefeated in his 9 fight career. Daukaus is a highly gifted prospect and even if he didn’t come in as a late replacement like he did for this bout, he likely would have made his way into the promotion within the calendar year. Brendan Allen has only made it as far as the 2nd in his last 3 bouts, starting with his RNC win on DWCS nearly a year ago from this card. If Kyle Daukaus had a proper camp for this I likely would have taken him, but I am getting flashes of Max Rohskopf in this one and I am staying away. Probably will fade this fight in its entirety because I hate the line, but if I am picking someone here it’s Brendan Allen.

Brendan Allen by 1st Round Submission -325 1 unit (because I am fading)

Gian Villante vs Maurice Greene Heavyweight Bout

These guys are not good fighters. They both lose to anyone they fight with any ability. Gian Villante is in my twitter handle, such a cool fun guy. He is like the Gronk of the UFC if Gronk was only on a roster because he was funny and friends with Goodell. This is Villante’s first Heavyweight Fight in the UFC, says this move was inevitable and he would have had a tough time cutting during all of this. Maurice Greene is coming off 2 losses in a row, both 1 sided finishes. Maurice is likely the stronger fighter but Villante was 6-1 at heavyweight before his move to 205. Since he is a big underdog and this fight is between 2 guys scraping the bottom of the barrel, why not ride with Villante. 

Gian Villante by 3rd Round TKO +185 1 unit

*Side note, I wrote this before I saw Gian’s weigh in and he looked horrible. I think he was pushing out his gut to look worse and fool everyone, but holy shit he looked bad, be careful.

Philipe Lins vs Tanner Boser Heavyweight Bout

Fuck this fight. I have been back and forth on these guys for days. I was all on board the Philipe Lins bandwagon before the Arlovski fight, probably because I think the PFL is awesome, then he just broke my damn heart. Tanner Boser is a pretty boring high volume, pillow handed heavyweight who has only one finish in his last 7 bouts. It may be stupid to pick a fight like this, but I am going with Lins for the fact that he is the only one that has a chance to end this fight before it goes the distance. The smaller cage will help him land his bigger shots, and he does not have to show respect for Boser’s hands like he had to for Arlovski.

Philipe Lins by 2nd Round TKO -120 1 unit

Sean Woodson vs Julian Erosa Catchweight (150 lbs) Bout

Here we got another fight with a super late replacement and one sided odds. Out of all the ones that have happened lately, both me and the oddsmakers agree that Sean Woodson should absolutely destroy Erosa without much friction. Woodson is undefeated and has been taking home some lopsided victories. Erosa has 1 win in his last 4 fights. When I started writing my picks Woodson was -550 and has now moved to -600. I do not know who is willing to shell out so much cash to move the line like that, way too big of a risk to take a line like that in my opinion. That being said, I am taking Sean Woodson but that is solely because I have him in my DraftKings lineup. His value is just too good there.

Sean Woodson by Decision -600 (DraftKings lineup, don’t take a line like this)

Prelims

Luis Peña vs Khama Worthy Lightweight Bout

Khama Worthy pulled off one of the biggest Upsets I have ever seen in my life. I thought Devonte Smith was going to pick him apart and he came in and knocked him the fuck out. That being said he was a late replacement (not during a global pandemic) and they were friends so things were weird. Pena will come in with a crazy reach advantage and just be able to control this fight in a small octagon with his superior grappling and boring style. I really wanted to pick Worthy, but having been at AKA and now ATT, Pena will just fight a smart fight and take this to the judges with a win.

Luis Pena by Decision -280 2 units

Takashi Sato vs Jason Witt Welterweight Bout

These late replacement fighters are really killing my groove while picking. It staggers the line a crazy amount and makes me not want to pick these fights. Jason Witt is the latest replacement of all of these on 1 days notice. He is a solid newcomer, but has faced no real competition. Takashi Sato has a win over veteran Ben Saunders, but is also one of Belal Muhammed’s only finishes in his pro career. This is pretty similar to the Sean Woodson situation where his value in DraftKings is just too good to not take him, otherwise I likely would have faded this fight.

Takashi Sato by Decision -255 2 units (Likely only taking him in DraftKings)

Kay Hansen vs Jinh Yu Frey Strawweight

Kay Hansen is a fresh young prospect looking to add another name to the deep 115 pool of fighters. She is coming off 3 straight Invicta wins before her debut and is looking to make waves at just 20 years old. Yu Frey is also making her UFC debut, but a bit later in her career at 35 years old. She was the Invicta Atomweight champ and is moving up to 115 to compete in the UFC. Yu Frey coming in as an underdog is likely because of her size disadvantage in this one, and people jumping on board with the fresh blood. Hansen’s only losses in her career are to bigger fighters, she will be able to out muscle Yu Frey in this one and get her first UFC win. Also, Yu Frey has 4 wins in the last 3 years against only 2 different women.

Kay Hansen by Decision -180 1 unit

Jordan Griffin vs Youssef Zalal Featherweight Bout

This would likely be the biggest win on either of these guy’s records if they can pull this off. They are both great standup fighters with a decent amount of submissions in their arsenal. They are the same height with Zalal having just the slightest reach advantage. Zalal is a bit more dangerous everywhere, with the heavier hands in this bout. It really does come to a flip of a coin. The line has been moving poorly against him which sucks so I would lock him in as soon as possible.

Youssef Zalal by Decision -140 1 unit

DraftKings Lineup:

Parlay:

My reasoning here is that I wanted to include Mickey because I think his value is great (putting a bit too much on him with both my DraftKings lineup and parlay), and if he wins, it likely goes past the 1.5 round mark.

That is all I have for this evening of fights. As always, may luck be your lady tonight.