Evan’s Educated Guesses: UFC Vegas 3: Blaydes v. Volkov

It is Saturday, and we have another night of fights. The UFC is delivering another night at the UFC Apex. That means another night of small octagon fights. I hope it’s as entertaining as every other night of small octagon fights. I think Curtis Blaydes is going to love the small octagon. This card should be pretty entertaining. I think I am going to jinx this card since I am excited for it. I am moving this week, and did not get the best feel for this card, I hope it’s a happy week of betting for all. Good luck and enjoy.

MAIN CARD

CURTIS BLAYDES V. ALEXANDER VOLKOV

A couple of weeks ago I released a blog of fights I’d like to see. Curtis Blaydes v. Jair Rozenstruik was on that list as one of the only heavyweight fights that make sense that I want to see. I might have mentioned Blaydes v. Volkov as a fight that makes sense, but it doesn’t have the excitement that Blaydes v. Rozenstruik would have had. But I bet Blaydes is ok with that. 

The only two losses on Blaydes’ record comes by TKOs from Francis Ngannou. Outside of his Ngannou fights, Blaydes has been a monster. Blaydes said he doesn’t want this fight to go to a decision, and the way he has been fighting, I wouldn’t be shocked if his prediction comes true. Blaydes is 13-2 in his career with 10 KO/TKOs and 3 decisions. His wrestling is top notch, and his ground and pound is vicious. He likes to take them down and use elbows to get the finish. His last fight, Junior dos Santos used his BJJ to keep Blaydes’ wrestling from being a factor. So Blaydes did what many didn’t think was possible and outboxed one of the best boxers in UFC heavyweight history. Blaydes showed solid evolution in his boxing game and he looked really good in that fight. Blaydes is a truly dangerous fighter.

Volkov is the giant heavyweight that would have been closer to the title if he could have lasted another 11 seconds against Derrick Lewis. He fought a perfect 14:49 and with 11 seconds left, Derrick Lewis put him to sleep. Lewis went on to fight Daniel Cormier for the heavyweight title. Volkov took a year off and fought Greg Hardy (after Junior dos Santos dropped out) next and won an easy decision over the overmatched rookie. Volkov is dangerous and tends to have a reach advantage in his fights. Volkov doesn’t have crazy power, he relies on volume to keep opponents at bay and get late finishes.

I think Volkov is going to try to implement the same game plan he had against Derrick Lewis. Stay away and try to pick and pop. Use his reach advantage to keep Blaydes away. Volkov’s takedown defense is pretty good. Blaydes’ game plan is going to be to come forward and pummel Volkov into oblivion. Whether it is on the feet or after a takedown, Blaydes is going to be aiming for a finish. 

Curtis Blaydes by 1st round TKO

JOSH EMMETT V. SHANE BURGOS

This is a tough fight to call. I think this is a two outcome fight (I know that’s how all fights are), but I mean Burgos decision win or Emmett TKO win. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility for Emmett to be TKOd, but he is very durable. Burgos has the nickname Hurricane for a reason. He is an insane volume fighter. He is going to just go out there and throw strike after strike. He sets an incredible pace and doesn’t let his foot off the gas pedal. His footwork is very good and he has good head movement. He has been on a solid 3 fight win streak with wins over Kurt Holobaugh, Cub Swanson and Makwan Amirkhani. A win over Emmett can boost him up towards the top part of the division and another step closer to the title. The biggest problem with Burgos’ style is his propensity to eat strikes. He leaves himself open to get hit. Sometimes he marches forward with his chin open to bait opponents. Sometimes it’s just a defensive lapse. His lone loss was a TKO loss to Calvin Kattar. Amirkhani dropped him at one point. He does get hit.

If there is a featherweight that will take advantage of an open chin, it is Josh Emmett. Josh Emmett moved down from lightweight to featherweight, and all of a sudden became an insane power puncher. It was bizarre. He is 4-1 at featherweight, with 3 of those wins by KO/TKO. His wins are over Ricardo Lamas, Michael Johnson, and Mirsad Bektic. Those are some pretty good wins. Emmett’s lone loss was a nasty KO loss to Jeremy Stephens. 

This fight is going to come down to whether Emmett can land the bomb. I would say it could be a boring fight, but Burgos’ output probably won’t let that happen. Burgos has a 5 inch reach advantage. He is going to try to keep Emmett at distance and keep picking him apart. If this was a normal size octagon, I think this is an easy decision win for Burgos. I think the smaller octagon favors Emmett here. This is a tough call, and the small octagon makes it harder. Burgos is going to have to keep away from the Emmett bomb for the entire 15 minutes, as Volkov learned against Derrick Lewis, you can’t take any time off. I’m going to roll with the small octagon finishes.

Josh Emmett by 3rd round TKO

RAQUEL PENNINGTON V. MARION RENEAU

This is not a high power matchup and I am expecting a low output fight that will leave fans looking for a pick me up that the co-main event will definitely provide. Raquel Pennington is a decent fighter that wins the fights over lower level fighters to get close to the title shot or the actual title shot. She isn’t spectacular at anything in particular, but she does enough to get the wins. She is going up against the ancient Marion Reneau. I didn’t know Reneau was still active in the UFC. Reneau is ok but she does not stand out at anything. She is physical and maybe holds advantage in the clinch, but not much else. I don’t think she has much to take this fight.

Raquel Pennington by decision

BELAL MUHAMMAD V. LYMAN GOOD

This is a fresh matchup of welterweights trying to get some spotlight in a stacked division that seems to be focused heavily on lightweights that are too lazy to cut to lightweight. That is actually a point that Belal brought up recently that I thought was interesting. Belal is 7-3 in the UFC with his only losses coming to Alan Jouban, Vicente Luque, and Geoff Neal. Luque was the only one to finish him. Two of Belal’s wins were finishes, 1 TKO and 1 submission. His last win was a 3rd round rear naked choke win over Takashi Sato in September 2019. Some of Belal’s UFC wins were Randy Brown, Tim Means, Chance Rencountre, and Curtis Millender. Most of them were decisions, he doesn’t have the finishing power in his hands. 

Lyman Good is 3-2 in the UFC with his 2 losses coming to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and Demian Maia. EZdS was a decision loss, and Maia was a first round RNC submission loss. All 3 of Good’s wins were KO/TKO wins. His wins were over Andrew Craig, Ben Saunders, and Chance Rencountre. He definitely has the power.

This is the classic power puncher v. output puncher. Good has a lot of power in his hands, 11 of his 21 wins are by KO/TKO, including all 3 of his UFC wins. Belal does not have a lot of power in his hands as 11 of his 16 wins come by decision, including 5 of his 7 UFC wins. Both fighters have decent wrestling for plan B if their striking isn’t on point. I think that will cancel out and we will see a fight take place in the middle of the octagon. In the co-main, I went with the power puncher Emmett because of the small octagon. In this fight, there is another factor that I will go against the power puncher. Good had the coronavirus earlier this year. The rona attacks the lungs, and we don’t know how his cardio will be affected. Will he be able to go for an extended amount of time? I am not comfortable enough to pick him since he is the first fighter to fight after recovering from the rona.

Belal Muhammad by decision

JIM MILLER V. ROOSEVELT ROBERTS

Roosevelt Roberts makes the quick turnaround against the long time veteran Jim Miller. Roberts fought 3 weeks ago quickly putting away the dog fighter Brok Weaver. Now he gets a gatekeeper in Jim Miller. Miller ties Cowboy Cerrone for most fights in UFC history. I wonder if that’s why he took this fight, semi-kidding. Even still, I like this fight for Roberts. It might be a little too soon for his first gate keeper, but he is 4-1 in the UFC so might as well give him a gatekeeper. Miller is pretty old at this point. Roberts’ striking has been getting better every fight. I think the small octagon is good for him here. I think the quick turnaround was a smart move for him. Let the momentum keep going, especially if he didn’t get hit too much. I think he keeps rolling.

Roosevelt Roberts by decision

PRELIMS

CLAY GUIDA V. BOBBY GREEN

Bobby Green by boring decision

TECIA TORRES V. BRIANNA VAN BUREN

Brianna Van Buren by decision

MARC-ANDRE BARRIAULT V. OSKAR PIECHOTA

Marc-Andre Barriault by 2nd round TKO

CORTNEY CASEY V. GILLIAN ROBERTSON

Gillian Robertson by 1st round submission

FRANK CAMACHO V. JUSTIN JAYNES

Frank Camacho by 2nd round TKO

ROXANNE MODAFFERI V. LAUREN MURPHY

Roxanne Modafferi by decision

AUSTIN HUBBARD V. MAX ROHSKOPF

Max Rohskopf by 1st round submission

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT

JOSH EMMETT V. SHANE BURGOS