Evan’s Educated Guesses: UFC Vegas 2: Eye v. Calvillo

This card is certainly something. Fans were already groaning at how weak this card was, then they went and released the lineup for UFC 251 the week of this card. This card doesn’t even feel like it should be the prelims for UFC 251. But back to this card. There might be some ok fights on it. Maybe? I don’t know. Maybe betting on some fights will make them more entertaining. I’m not going to lie to you, I didn’t get much of a feel for this card and I rode with my gut on a bunch of fights. I have a feeling tonight will be an emotional roller coaster that my bank account will feel. 

MAIN CARD

JESSICA EYE V. CYNTHIA CALVILLO

This is the main event no one wanted. I try to be somewhat positive in relation to these cards a lot of times. I don’t even think this main card could be a prelim card for UFC 251. But shit, this main event is so uninspiring. It is really hard picking this fight because I really don’t want to bet on this fight. I liked Jessica Eye coming into this fight. Former bantamweight, she’s had a lot of success at flyweight, until she ran into Valentina Shevchenko. She is a good striker and has a solid wrestling defense. Going up against Cynthia Calvillo, an oversized strawweight that kept missing weight or having tough weight cuts, and is making her flyweight debut. Then Eye looked like she was going to die while stepping onto the scale and I lost any confidence I had in Eye taking the decision.

Eye is 4-1 as a flyweight, the 1 loss being the 2nd round head kick KO loss to Valentina. Her 3 win run to the title were 3 decision wins over Kalindra Faria, Jessica-Rose Clark, and Katlyn Chookagian. Winning a point fight striking contest over Chookagian is pretty impressive. After the loss to Valentina, Eye came back with another point fight decision win over Viviane Aruajo in December 2019. Eye is a standup striker, mostly point fighting. She is good at keeping the distance. 

Calvillo is one of those fighters that’s a really good grappler but loves to stand and trade to begin a fight. Then towards the end of the 2nd round (she hasn’t really had a 5 round fight before so I don’t know when she would figure it out here) realizes she has a better chance of winning on the ground than on the feet. That is how she got her first loss, and how she got a draw in her last fight against Marina Rodriguez. For Calvillo she was a big strawweight that had weight cutting issues and moved up to flyweight for this fight. 

Eye seems to match up well with Calvillo. Eye will be more than content to stay on the feet and point fight with Calvillo. Eye is the bigger fighter here with a reach advantage. Eye can usually fend off the takedown. She has only been submitted once, and it was in 2011. This is a favorable matchup for her. But, if you saw her on the scale yesterday, it seemed to be a terrible weight cut for her. If Eye didn’t have the brutal weight cut and didn’t look like death on the scale, I’d be confident in her. That being said, I’m not very confidently picking Calvillo to implement her will on a compromised Eye.

Cynthia Calvillo by decision

KARL ROBERSON V. MARVIN VETTORI

This would have been a fun outdoors fight island fight. This was a Ronavirus blood feud that I hope the fight lives up to. This fight was scheduled for a month ago, but Roberson missed weight, then he pulled out of the fight. Vettori was super pissed, then when they crossed paths in the hotel, Vettori let him know how pissed he was. Vettori tried to get fights in the last couple of weeks but to no avail. Then this fight was rebooked for this week. THEN ON TOP OF THAT, Roberson missed weight yesterday by 4.5 pounds. Vettori is an emotional fighter, so that might hurt Vettori in the long run, but man is there a lot of heat in this fight. Maybe this should have been the main event.

Roberson is 4-2 since joining the UFC from Dana White Contender Series. The two losses came from Cezar Ferreira and Glover Teixeira, both by arm-triangle chokes. Roberson is a kickboxer by nature, but his only UFC finishes (2) are by submission (rear naked chokes). His grappling is better than expected, and he doesn’t have the knockout power that we expected, especially after his performance on DWCS. Roberson has looked pretty good in his wins. His striking is smooth and precise. If he can figure out his weight cutting issues, he could make a solid run in the middleweight division. 

Vettori is the man that almost ended the Adesanya hype train in the station. He had a very close split decision loss to him in April 2018. From there, Adesanya went on to superstardom, and Vettori had to fight the likes of Cezar Ferreira and Andrew Sanchez. He won both of those fights, but even still, the two paths from that fight are astronomically different. Vettori is a pressure fighter always looking to move forward and be physical. His boxing technique is pretty good. His wrestling is pretty good. He isn’t going to let Roberson get too comfortable.

This is a solid matchup of middleweights. Roberson likes to keep a distance and gets uncomfortable with pressure fighters, but has sneaky grappling skills when it gets to the mats, but has been caught in submissions. Vettori is a pressure fighter that moves forward, has a durable chin, is a good defensive wrestler, and is good at catching guys in submissions. Vettori is pretty angry at Roberson over the weight misses and cancelled fights. It might affect his game plan. But I think Vettori is the more experienced and well rounded fighter.

Marvin Vettori by 2nd round submission

MERAB DVALISHVILI V. GUSTAVO LOPEZ

Man, do the hits keep coming for Ray Borg. He had to pull out because of a family emergency, and it seems something like this happens to him every couple of fights. I hope everything is ok. They were able to find a replacement in Gustavo Lopez, the Combate Americas bantamweight champion. Lopez is on a 3 fight win streak, all stoppage wins, and now he is making his UFC debut on 2 days notice. I don’t know much about Lopez, I know he is more of a striker whereas Borg is a wrestler.

Merab is a straight control wrestler. His last win over Casey Kenney was absolutely dominating. I was excited to watch him against Borg. The scrambles would have been very entertaining. Instead of facing another grappler, he goes up against a striker. Merab will implement his swarming offense. He will attempt close to 20 takedowns like he usually does. The outcome might have been different if Lopez had a full training camp. I think Merab will be pretty dominant. 

Merab Dvalishvili by decision

ANDRE FILI V. CHARLES JOURDAIN

This could be the most entertaining fight of the night. Both guys like to throw bombs. Both guys can be aggressive strikers. I like this matchup of featherweights. Andre Fili is a more experienced fighter. His wrestling is solid so if the standup isn’t going his way, he can take it to the mat and drag the fight out, but in his earlier days, he would just throw bombs. Charles Jourdain is young, 1-1 in the UFC and is a gunslinging, bomb thrower. His last fight, a December 2019 2nd round TKO win over Doo Ho Choi, was a firefight. Jourdain and Choi both came out firing haymakers until one of them went down and it was Choi that went down. Fili might come out and try for the takedown to neutralize him the entire fight or to just tire him out early. Or they might come out and try to put each other out early. I’m not really sure. I usually get the feeling fighters lower in the rankings like to try for the style points finish first. So I expect them to come out firing, I will most likely be wrong on this. Fili has been relying on his wrestling more and more every fight, and it has been working since his win over Hacran Dias. That being said, he still has been known to be hittable, which isn’t a good thing against Charles Jourdain. This will be a fun firefight.

Charles Jourdain by 1st round TKO

JORDAN ESPINOSA V. MARK DE LA ROSA

A battle of flyweights on losing streaks. I don’t really know why this is on the main card, but then again, I don’t know why this is an event to begin with, but I digress. Jordan Espinosa is very athletic and a decent striker. He likes to grapple, but isn’t very good at it, as you can tell by 4 of his 7 losses coming by submission. Espinosa’s losing streak is at 2, Matt Schnell (1st round triangle choke) and Alex Perez (1st round arm-triangle choke). His grappling is weak and he should try to keep the fight on the feet. De La Rosa’s losing streak is at 3, Alex Perez (decision), Kai Kara-France (decision), and Raulian Paiva (2nd round KO). De La Rosa is a wrestler with decent but not good boxing. His best bet is getting the fight to the ground. After De La Rosa’s last fight, I had the realization he isn’t close to as good as his wife (Montana De La Rosa) and said I would never pick him again (unless a vast improvement occurs), so I will be sticking to that statement.

Jordan Espinosa by decision

PRELIMS

MARIYA AGAPOVA V. HANNAH CIFERS

Mariya Agapova by decision

CHARLES ROSA V. KEVIN AGUILAR

Charles Rosa by 3rd round submission

JULIA AVILA V. GINA MAZANY

Julia Avila by decision

TYSON NAM V. ZARRUKH ADASHEV

Tyson Nam by decision

ANTHONY IVY V. CHRISTIAN AGUILERA

Anthony Ivy by decision

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT

ANDRE FILI V. CHARLES JOURDAIN