I have grown old and weary waiting for a UFC PPV after the last month and a half of mediocrity. We had 2 electrifying title fights set and ready to go yesterday, before disaster struck. While this is still a solid card, losing Arman Tsarukyan and scratching Moicano vs Dariush so we can have a title replacement puts quite a dampener on it. We should still get some pretty good matchups, but I don’t see the belt being in danger at any point during the 155 matchup. Otherwise the main card is rounded out with Merab vs Umar for Georgia vs Dagestan for the best side of the Caucasus Mountains, Jiri and Jamahal are competing to see who is Pereira’s favorite child, Jailton Almeida looks to keep his title trajectory going against a very improved Serhei Spivac, and the always entertaining Kevin Holland looks to take out Former ONE FC star Reinier de Ridder. Let’s get into these picks and win some money.
Main Card
Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano Lightweight Championship Bout
Renato Moicano was potentially in a number 1 contender fight against Beneil Dariush before Arman tore his labia in half and ruined a great card. Now Moicano is thrust into the title fight on 24 hours notice against one of the greatest lightweights of all time. Sure Moicano was preparing to go up against a very good grappler, but Dariush is no Makhachev. I was really excited to bet against Islam because I completely bought into Arman’s transformation and new secret move, now I don’t see a way Moicano can possibly win and will have to side with the Dagi champion. I see Moicano’s takedown defense holding off Islam for a bit, but eventually the waters will get too deep and Islam will sink in that choke.
Islam Makhachev by 3rd Round Submission (SGP o 1.5 rds) -105 2 units
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov Bantamweight Championship Bout
Now this is a hell of a matchup. Merab has his first title defense and it is up against MMA royalty in a Nurmagomedov. I always forget which ones are his brothers, cousins, or just some other relative from Dagestan (even though they are probably all related). Umar is unbeaten and shown he is one of the strongest grapplers the division has seen. The other strongest grappler in the division’s history is his opponent and title holder, Merab Dvalishvili. This is fire fighting fire, will we end up getting a stand up battle since both of these guys respect each other’s grappling so much? Or will we see a battle of who is able to get the takedown first to start each round. This line is very perplexing to me. Merab has the greatest cardio in UFC history, amazing grappling, and the extra cherry on top of training on Long Island with the greats. I would have taken Merab as a favorite here, happy I get to double up my money instead.
Merab Dvalishvili by Decision +205 1 unit
Jiří Procházka vs. Jamahal Hill Light Heavyweight Bout
Holy shit do I hate Jamahal Hill. No one in history has used delivering a low blow as an excuse for getting knocked the fuck out. The dude just bitches and moans all day long. Jiri on the other hand falls back into the darkness and learns how to grow as a fighter. He said that he has learned how to keep his hands up and defend himself and that is enough for me to take him over Angela. I mean Jamahal Hill.
Jiri Prochazka by 2nd Round TKO +110 1 unit
Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac Heavyweight Bout
Jailton Almeida was some perfectly timed hammerfists away from having fought Tom Aspinall for the Interim Belt. He is on a quick trajectory to the top nonetheless against a sneaky good Serhei Spivac. I will say, I was a huge Spivac hater when he first stepped onto the scene, dude went to decision twice in super boring fights in his first 3 UFC appearances. Since then he has been finishing or getting finished left and right and has been making things more interesting. Sucks for him that he is being fed to a far superior fighter here, but I am not betting against him with spite like I used to.
Jailton Almeida by 1st Round Submission (Win in rds 1-2) -150 2 units
Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder Middleweight Bout
This one tears me up inside. I really wanted to take Holland, but I just can’t trust the guy at 185. Anytime at middleweight he goes up against a fighter with grappling he gets absolutely destroyed. Unfortunately, I see the same thing happening here. Ridder is pretty unpolished and makes stupid mistakes pretty much the whole fight, but so does 185 champion DDP and it works great for him. It won’t be pretty but Ridder is going to get this to the ground and find his submission to end this one in the distance.
Reinier de Ridder by 2nd Round Submission -122 1 unit
Prelims
Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos Bantamweight Bout
Payton Talbott by 2nd Round TKO (Win in rds 1-2) -125 1 unit
Zachary Reese vs. Azamat Bekoev Middleweight Bout
Zachary Reese by 1st Round TKO +162 1 unit
Bogdan Guskov vs. Billy Elekana Light Heavyweight Bout
Bogdan Guskov by 1st Round TKO (Prop Finish Line) -185 1 unit
Grant Dawson vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira Lightweight Bout
Grant Dawson by Decision (SGP o 1.5 rds) -110 1 unit
Early Prelims
Karol Rosa vs. Ailín Pérez Bantamweight Bout
Ailin Perez by Decision +200 1 unit
Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov Bantamweight Bout
Rinya Nakamura by Decision (Prop Line) -145 1 unit
Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj Bantamweight Bout
Ricky Turcios by Decision +220 1 unit
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter Flyweight Bout
Clayton Carpenter by 1st Round Submission +260 1 unit
Draftkings Lineup:
That’s all I have for this first PPV of 2025. Already sculpted all my friends’ plans around coming back to my place at night so I can get the fights on instead of going to a random bar and hoping for the best. I think there is some pretty solid value on this card, will probably end up parlaying some of the bigger favorites, but still like all of my prop line picks (or at least most). Remember to bet responsibly and stick to your units. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!