Violence in NYC?!?! No we aren’t talking about some shitty Ivy League schools, we are talking about the MSG UFC Card! Love when the fights come to my home city, hate that price out any real fans of the sport. This is a pretty dope card to bring to the Excelsior State, not the best of the year, but we get the return of the goat… and Jon Jones is fighting too. Let’s take a look at this card though; the man who fears no one, other than Tom Aspinall, comes back to fight Heavyweight GOAT Stipe Miocic, Do Bronx rematches Michael Chandler for another likely classic, Bo Nickal looks to continue his climb to the top against the always dangerous Paul “The Bearjew” Craig, chicks fighting, and to start the PPV we have Mauricio Ruffy looking to make a statement on the biggest stage. Enough of my rambling, let’s get into these picks.
Main Card
Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Heavyweight Championship Bout
This fight feels like it’s been 5+ years in the making. Mostly because this fight would have been way more interesting 5 years ago. Maybe it’s because of how soft Bones has made himself sound all week about ducking Aspinall, but I have lost a lot of excitement for this one. Stipe is definitely a tougher test than people are making him out to be for Jones first title defense. He has beaten everyone he has faced as champion (at some point) and should be able to hold his own on the feet. That being said, eventually Jon will be able to impose his will, he is just way too talented to get outclassed by Stipe. Jones will win, but it will take him longer than it took against Gane.
Jon Jones by 3rd Round Submission (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -110 1 unit
Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler Lightweight Bout
This fight will look nearly identical to the first one. Which I am totally happy with. Chandler has been notorious (no pun intended) for starting fast and immediately crumbling in the 2nd round. I don’t know if we will see Charles in trouble like we did the first time, his fight IQ has gotten a bit better since then. We will see him absolutely take over after Chandler wastes his energy early, it is an inevitability. Really hard to find value betting here, probably will just throw Charlie Olives in a parlay, but for a single bet I imagine he puts away Chandler quickly.
Charles Oliveira by 2nd Round Submission (SGP U 2.5 Rds) -135 1 unit
Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig Middleweight Bout
I will always and forever love Paul Craig. It could be because his nickname is Bearjew and I will cheer for anyone who isn’t offended by being called a Jew. Or it is because he managed to finish a fight with the number 1 LHW contender with only a second left on the clock. Either or, the dude is a gangster and is never out of a fight. Unfortunately, Bo Nickal is a killer and will probably be able to handle anything Craig has up his sleeves. There is no value to be had on Nickal, and I don’t want to cheer against Craig, so I will be betting this lasts longer than any of Nickal’s other fights.
Over 1.5 Rounds +135 1 unit (Why not?)
Viviane Araújo vs. Karine Silva Flyweight Bout
Both these ladies are very good and Araujo has definitely stiff competition to make her record look less impressive, but Silva is better everywhere that Araujo is good. On top of that, she is also able to finish fights. I don’t see her getting the finish against Araujo but she should be able to dominate at least 2 rounds if the tank holds up.
Karine Silva by Decision (Prop Line) +100 1 unit
Maurício Ruffy vs. James Llontop Catchweight (165 lb) Bout
Does this fight deserve to be on the PPV? Probably not. Is Mauricio Ruffy fun as hell to watch? Yes. This fight feels a little mean to Llontop, he takes the chance on a little over 2 weeks notice, coming off of 2 losses, to one of the most dangerous up and comers in the division. This may change to a 2 unit position the more I think about it. Ruffy is going to absolutely destroy in his biggest opportunity to date.
Mauricio Ruffy by 1st Round TKO (Prop TKO Line) -150 1 unit
Prelims
Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee Bantamweight Bout
Marcus McGhee by 3rd Round TKO -130 1 unit
Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders Middleweight Bout
I am ready to be hurt again.
Chris Weidman by Decision -102 2 units
Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson Lightweight Bout
Jim Miller by 1st Round TKO +170 1 unit
David Onama vs. Roberto Romero Lightweight Bout
David Onama by Decision (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -105 1 unit
Early Prelims
Marcin Tybura vs. Jhonata Diniz Heavyweight Bout
Jhonata Diniz by 1st Round TKO +105 1 unit
Mickey Gall vs. Ramiz Brahimaj Welterweight Bout
Ramiz Brahimaj by Decision +124 1 unit
Bassil Hafez vs. Oban Elliot Welterweight Bout
Oban Elliot by Decision (Prop Line) -150 1 unit
Veronica Hardy vs. Eduarda Moura Flyweight Bout
Veronica Hardy by Decision -105 1 unit
DraftKings Lineup:
That is all I have for you on this beautiful day of violence. Stay looking at my twitter in case I put out any parlays or have any funny losses so you can roast me. Not a lot of 2 unit plays today, a lot of these lines worry me or are just far too long. Remember to stick to your units and gamble responsibly. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!