Violence in the Middle East? Well this is new. Dana put together a hell of a card for us this weekend and I could not be more excited. A card that starts at 10 AM EST when the Yankees play at night and South Carolina is on bye? Couldn’t be more perfect for me. On top of that, he gave us probably one of the best 1 championship fight main cards I have ever witnessed. At least on paper. Max vs Ilia is one of the most anticipated title matchups in ages, Bobby Knuckles has the chance to derail the Chimaev train, Magomed looks to cement himself as next up for the belt by beating Rakic, Lerone Murphy puts his undefeated record up against the always tough Dan Ige, and then we have the one eyed warrior Shara Magomedov trying to take the next step against Armen Petrosyan. Man this card fucks, let’s get into these picks.
Main Card
Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway Featherweight Championship Bout
I fucking love Max Holloway. I have been sick to my stomach since his last fight when I took Gaethje over him (also that Gaethje was the final leg of a 7 fight parlay). Ilia looked incredible in his fight with Volk, very hard to see anyone beating him, especially seeing what Volk did to Max in their last bout. Even so, the line for this fight is absolutely outrageous. We saw Max put the toughest 155er on the planet to sleep and out class him for 5 rounds, do we really think Ilia is a 3-1 favorite over him? I don’t care what Ilia thinks, he probably does have more power but there is no chance he is a better boxer than Max. If he truly plans on keeping this standing he will be picked apart for 25 min rounds until his face looks like Rocky Dennis from Mask.
Max Holloway by Decision +225 1 unit
Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev Middleweight Bout
I have done the biggest 180 on Khamzat out of any UFC fan on the planet. I used to mark my calendars everytime he had a fight coming up (at that time it was every other week). Dude was absolutely destroying everyone in his path all the time. Now, he pulls out of almost every fight, supports terrorists (probably always has), and put up a crotch sniffing fest against Kamaru, which I guess is impressive considering he is the ultimate crotch sniffer. Bobby Knuckles on the other hand could never lose my favor. Sure he has had a couple bad fights against Izzy and DDP, but has been dominant outside of those 2. We have never seen him get ragdolled by anyone (maybe DDP but that dude is just hard to beat), and we will not see it tonight. Chimaev will gas out early trying to get the takedowns that won’t be there, then we will see Bobby batter this man until his lip is fixed.
Robert Whittaker by 3rd Round TKO +195 1 unit
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakić Light Heavyweight Bout
Ankalaev should have already been fighting for the title. This is just a little tune up fight to time him up with Pereira a bit better. Rakic pretty consistently falters against top competition and I do not expect to see anything different here. The thing I truly want to see is whether Ankalaev decides to do this standing or grappling. He can beat him at either, but with a title tilt on the way against the greatest striker in UFC history, I see him showcasing what he can do on the feet to put some fear in the title holder.
Magomed Ankalaev by Decision (Win in Rd 3 or Decision) -160 2 units
Lerone Murphy vs. Dan Ige Featherweight Bout
I am happy Dana is rewarding Ige by giving him another PPV bout after taking the Lopes fight on a day’s notice. That being said, this probably won’t be all that close when all is said and done. Ige is an ok grappler but seldom takes things to the ground. He is going to go into this and try to strike with Lerone and get pieced up. Then he will try to start grappling but Lerone’s defense will be too much. Ige is tough so I don’t see him going down but I don’t see him being a threat here either.
Leron Murphy by Decision (Prop Line) -175 1 unit
Shara Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan Middleweight Bout
Shara finally has his toughest test against the sometimes great and sometimes mediocre Armen Petrosyan. This one will probably start pretty close with Shara taking a little time to find his way inside against the lanky Petrosyan. I see a first round that goes either way with the judges and less action than people anticipate. Then in the second is when we will see things open up for Shara. He will start doing his weird pirate shit to get inside then start landing heavy. Armen will crumble under the constant forward pressure and be curled up waiting for the ref to stop this. Pretty excited for this to kick off the PPV.
Shara Magomedov by 2nd Round TKO -175 2 units
Prelims
Ibo Aslan vs. Raffael Cerqueira Light Heavyweight Bout
Ibo Aslan by 1st Round TKO -102 1 unit
Geoff Neal vs. Rafael dos Anjos Welterweight Bout
Geoff Neal by Decision (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -140 1 unit
Mateusz Rębecki vs. Myktybek Orolbai Lightweight Bout
Myktybek Orolbai by 2nd Round TKO (Prop Finish Line) +165 1 unit
Abusupiyan Magomedov vs. Bruno Ferreira Middleweight Bout
Bruno Ferreira by 2nd Round TKO +124 1 unit
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Chris Barnett Heavyweight Bout
Chris Barnett 1st Round TKO +550 1 unit
Farid Basharat vs. Victor Hugo Bantamweight Bout
Farid Basharat by 1st Round Submission (Prop Finish Line) +200 1 unit
Ismail Naurdiev vs. Bruno Silva Middleweight Bout
Bruno Silva by 3rd Round TKO +142 1 unit
Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Carlos Leal Welterweight Bout
Rinat Fakhretdinov by Decision (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -145 1 unit
Draftkings Lineup:
That is all I have for this PPV in Abu Dhabi. Still so excited that I get to wake up and nearly immediately watch people bludgeon each other. Keep an eye on my twitter account, I am sure I parlay a lot of these heavy lines instead of taking specific methods of victories. Remember to bet responsibly and stick to your units. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!