Ello bruvs, we got violence in Manchester tonight innit. What a fucking card Dana put together for the crooked teeth fucks across the pond. Giving the English crowd 2 British blokes defending their belts but also making the card on US time is a pretty hilarious move. Couldn’t imagine paying top dollar to go to a card when the Main Event doesn’t even start until 5 AM the earliest. I guess it’ll be easy to stay awake as you wait to see the most boring/worst fighter in UFC history Belal Muhammad try and take the belts. Otherwise we have Aspinall defending his interim belt against Blaydes, Paddy the Baddy returns against King Green, Gregory Rodrigues vs Christian Leroy Duncan, and Arnold Allen vs Giga Chikadze. So excited for this one, let’s just get into the picks.
Main Card
Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad Welterweight Championship Bout
I have had knots in my stomach about this fight all month. I hate Belal Muhammad with such a burning passion I almost want to bet on him, then if he wins I won’t feel sick to my stomach all week. Do I have any reason to believe Belal would win? Not really. He will try and just hold Leon to the side of the cage for 25 min and raise his hand as if he is a good fighter. Dude is a strong grappler but that’s it. I don’t care about all these smoke screens about his boxing, dude just wants to hug you and not be able to take you down. Also I hate him for all of his out of UFC opinions but this is not the place to get into that. I see Leon avoiding a lot of the early takedown attempts and taking away his gas before piecing him up in the championship rounds.
Leon Edwards by Decision (Prop Line) +100 1 unit
Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes Heavyweight Interim Championship Bout
This is probably the best fight on the entire card. Aspinall has been an absolute monster in the UFC, with his lone loss coming to Blaydes after a knee injury. I wouldn’t fault anyone for throwing a little cash on Blaydes as such a big dog. Blaydes is coming off a great win over Almeida and has some of the tools to potentially win this one. We haven’t seen anyone try to takedown Aspinall yet so who knows how good his defense really is. With all that being said, Aspinall is just too high level and fast for Blaydes. I couldn’t find value anywhere to bet on him so I am just taking a chance that it makes it to the 2nd round before he puts Blaydes to sleep.
Tom Aspinal by 2nd Round TKO (Prop Rd 2 Finish) +550 1 unit
Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett Lightweight Bout
Flip flopped on this one a lot while writing this. Paddy did not look great against Tony Ferguson in his last bout. His tank was shit and he couldn’t put away a guy who posed no threat. Bobby Green on the other hand had a lackluster win over Jim Miller and doesn’t look like that same killer who put away Tony and Grant Dawson. I think Paddy takes the 1st 2 rounds easy, then just has to survive the 3rd to get the decision. He didn’t balloon up in weight like he normally does between fights, which makes me believe his cardio will be a bit better in this one.
Paddy the Baddy by Decision -105 1 unit
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues Middleweight Bout
This is the only fight on this card where I am not taking someone from the British Isles. Christian Leroy Duncan has been very good so far in his short UFC career, with both fighters having a loss to their only common opponent. I lean towards RoboCop in this one just because of how good he looks when things are going his way. If he is able to close the distance early and land his power shots and get this to the ground, I don’t really see what Duncan can do. If he can’t do anything early, he probably loses this one.
Gregory Rodrigues by 1st Round TKO +130 1 unit
Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze Featherweight Bout
Arnold Allen should have beaten Movsar. I can’t stand how these wrestlefuckers can just hold you down to get wins, it sucks and they need to legalize elbows to the back of the head on takedowns to stop this shit. Allen is a top 5 featherweight and has looked great, even in his last 2 losses. Giga was on an absolute tear before running into Calvin Kattar. Part of me wanted to take that underdog line on Giga and see what happens, but I think Allen is just a league better. Kattar is the perfect gatekeeper and we saw how Giga stood up to that vs how Allen did. Don’t overthink it.
Arnold Allen by Decision (Prop win in Rd 3 or Decision) -135 1 unit
Prelims
Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda Featherweight Bout
Nataniel Wood by 3rd round TKO (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -110 1 unit
Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil Strawweight Bout
Meatball Molly by 2nd Round Submission (Prop Finish Line) +150 1 unit
Jake Hadley vs. Caolan Loughran Bantamweight Bout
Caolan Loughran by decision (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -145 2 units
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio Light Heavyweight Bout
Marcin Prachnio by Decision +130 1 unit
Early Prelims
Oban Elliott vs. Preston Parsons Welterweight Bout
Oban Elliot by Decision +130 1 unit
Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape Flyweight Bout
Muhammad Mokaev by 2nd Round Submission -180 3 units
Sam Patterson vs. Kiefer Crosbie Welterweight Bout
Sam Patterson by 1st Round Submission (Prop Sub Line) -120 1 unit
Mick Parkin vs. Lukasz Brzeski Heavyweight Bout
Mick Parkin by Decision (Prop win in Rd 3 or Decision) -130 1 unit
Shauna Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean Strawweight Bout
Shauna Bannon by Decision (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -130 1 unit
DraftKings Lineup:
That is all I have for you on this beautiful fight night. Probably the most underdogs I have taken in ages (even though they are all like +130). Be careful with the prop bets, no shame in just parlaying some favorites you like instead. I only had 2 multiple unit plays while writing this, things may change as alcohol starts to hit the system. Remember to stick to your units and gamble responsibly. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!