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It is international fight week and I am currently international. No idea how I am going to watch the fights tonight, but that won’t stop me from getting my picks in. Also completely forgot to place any bets before leaving New York so I also won’t have any action, which is tearing me apart. Otherwise this card is sick, I am one of the few that is stoked McGregor backed out because the replacement fight is so much better. I have warmed up to McGregor more recently, but I hate having to watch him Main Event an $80 PPV when neither guy is sniffing a title shot. Now we get Pereira vs Jiri 2 which is beautiful, Ortega vs Lopes which is beautiful, Lionheart vs Dolidze which is suitable, Mayra Bueno Silva vs Macy Chiasson which is fine, and Garry vs MVP which is beautiful. One of the reasons I am a bit upset I didn’t place any bets is because these lines are actually bettable without props or parlays, all very close, which we haven’t seen on a PPV in a very long time. Let’s get into these picks!
Main Card
Alex Pereira vs. Jiří Procházka Light Heavyweight Title Fight
I see this fight going pretty similarly to the first. Pereira doesn’t usually start the fight too aggressively, which is where Jiri excels. Like the first, expect Jiri to be pressing early and landing a bit, Pereira just needs to survive the early onslaught and he should be able to take over this fight. I see later in the 2nd round this fight having a large momentum shift after Pereira’s leg kicks start taking effect and his striking starts to land a bit cleaner. By round 3 we are just going to be waiting for the ref to end this one as Pereira is easily picking Jiri apart and battering him. Don’t overthink it, it’s Poatan.
Alex Pereira by 3rd Round TKO -148 2 units
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes Featherweight Bout
This is a masterclass of matchmaking for the UFC, especially on short notice. 2 guys with a very similar skillset, one on his climb up for the 1st time and one trying to get back. Both dudes have top tier BJJ skills and are tough as hell each having only been finished once (not counting Yair’s win over Ortega) in their careers. I was pretty shocked to see that Lopes was the favorite in this one, he has been the more active fighter, tallying 3 straight wins and a near win over undefeated Movsar Evloev, but Ortega has only 2 real losses in his career, one to Max Holloway and the other to Alex Volkanovski, 2 of the greatest to ever compete. Once Ortega beat Yair in the rematch, I felt he is going to make another run at the title. Lopes may have a little better striking but I don’t see his grappling being able to top Ortega. A close matchup forsure, but I see Ortega taking this one.
Brian Ortega by 2nd Round Submission +120 1 unit
Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze Light Heavyweight Bout
This is a great fight to not be able to bet on. I go through phases of hating Anthony Smith, where I fade him constantly and it works for a fight or 2, then he goes on a run and I start betting on him. Usually I am too late and jump back on once he loses again. Fortunately, he has a super unpolished opponent in Dolidze that Smith should be able to take advantage of. We have seen a lot of Smith’s wins against stronger guys who gas out if they can’t get that early finish, and I see that happening here. Smith will survive the early barrage and show why his name is Lionheart.
Anthony Smith by Decision +124 1 unit
Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson Bantamweight Bout
This could be a fun fight or a snoozer, but I will stay positive. Both of these women are at the top of their division but have fallen short when they get near or to the top. Chiasson dropped fights to Rocky Pennington and Irene Aldana while Silva dropped her title shot to Rocky in a super disappointing performance. Hard to say which version of each lady comes out to fight here, but I see Bueno Silva’s strength overpowering Chiasson and neutralizing her attacks. This one probably goes to the judges but maybe it’ll be back and forth?
Mayra Bueno Silva by Decision -115 1 unit
Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page Welterweight Bout
Oh man what a fun fight we have here. No animosity between these 2 guys, no matter how much Garry tried to fake it. MVPs debut against Kevin Holland was awesome, showing he is the high level striker we all knew he was in Bellator. His wrestling defense even held up against Holland, either stuffing the takedowns or getting up quick. Sure Holland isn’t a spectacular wrestler but it is a good sign. Garry has the advantage pretty much everywhere but striking, his issue is that he thinks he has the striking advantage too, which is what will do him in at the end. I see Venom taking the first round as Garry tries to figure him out, 2nd round being back and forth and hard to judge, then Garry probably winning the 3rd. Just need the judges to give us the 1st 2.
Michael Page by Decision +130 1 unit
Prelims
Joe Pyfer vs. Marc-André Barriault Middleweight Bout
Joe Pyfer by 1st Round TKO (Prop Finish Line) +100 1 unit
Cub Swanson vs. Andre Fili Featherweight Bout
Cub Swanson by Decision +190 1 unit
Charles Jourdain vs. Jean Silva Featherweight Bout
Jean Silva by Decision -110 1 unit
Payton Talbott vs. Yanis Ghemmouri Bantamweight Bout
Payton Talbott by 1st Round TKO (Finish in Rds 1-2) -105 1 unit
Early Prelims
Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Gillian Robertson Strawweight Bout
Gillian Robertson by Decision (SGP o 1.5 Rds) +120 1 unit
Andrei Arlovski vs. Martin Buday Heavyweight Bout
Martin Buday by Decision (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -110 1 unit
Rei Tsuruya vs. Carlos Hernandez Flyweight Bout
Rei Tsuruya by 2nd Round TKO (Prop Finish Line) -145 1 unit
Ricky Simón vs. Vinicius Oliveira Bantamweight Bout
Vinicius Oliveira by 1st Round TKO +205 1 unit
DraftKings Lineup:
That is all I have for you this fight night. Really hope I get to watch at least the PPV but I won’t hold my breath. Stick to your units on this one, these lines are close and anything can happen, don’t want anyone to throw up if Anthony Smith ends up getting knocked the fuck out immediately. Bet responsibly and don’t take being able to watch fights easily for granted. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!