It’s a fight card in train distance from NYC, but not MSG so you know what that means! I am going to the event! Received some insane tickets from a friend and will hopefully be in the poncho section for when Islam explodes from a Diamond left hook. This card is fucking awesome, no idea why it’s in Newark, but I won’t be complaining. Sure it’s only one title fight but we it’s probably the most anticipated in the whole promotion with Dustin taking his last shot at immortality, Strickland and Costa fighting to see who is slightly worse than Bobby Knuckles, Kevin Holland vs Michal Olaksdjfoaineo should be fireworks, Niko Price returns against a very good Alex Morono, and Randy Brown and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos look take a step into the welterweight rankings. We have Jailton Almeida on the prelims when the dude was a win over Blaydes away from title contention, this is just a top to bottom fun card. Are the betting lines a little lopsided? Sure. Do I not have a single 2 unit position? Sure. Am I ready to watch 7 hours of violence anyways? Absolutely. Alright enough nonsense, let’s get into these picks.
Main Card
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier Lightweight Championship Bout
I have been actually losing sleep over this fight. Dreams nearly every night with different ways this can shake out. My entire tiktok feed is just Dustin Poirier edits over Rocky songs and dialogue. I can’t wait to see these 2 square off in the biggest Lightweight title fight since McGregor vs Khabib. Islam is a force to be reckoned with. Has the strength of Khabib with only slightly lesser grappling. Has the striking that Khabib always wishes he had. Has a crazy size advantage for the weight class, looking nearly twice the size of all his opponents. Plus he has only lost one fight and it was just a puncher’s chance. Poirier comes in off a crazy upset KO over Saint Denis after suffering a brutal KO loss to Gaethje. He has been one of the greatest Lightweights of all time to never hold a real belt. He has wins over Gaethje, McGregor, Holloway, Alvarez, and Pettis. TIme and again these 2 have taken care of business in the octagon. Who will come out victorious? Who the fuck cares. If you think I am not taking Poirier in this fight you are out of your fucking mind. You have to be on the right side of history in this one. Plus, what value can you even find on Islam?
Dustin Poirier by 3rd Round TKO +440 1 unit
Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa Middleweight Bout
This is a fun one that I am very happy got the Co-Main spot. Strickland has shown he belongs at the top of this division with a dismantling of Izzy and a narrow loss to current champion DDP. Paulo looked unstoppable at one point in his career, winning his way to a title shot where he unfortunately fell very short and got crushed by Izzy. Strickland is likely the better, more polished fighter in this one, having some of the best boxing in the whole promotion, but he can’t finish anyone. Paulo, while far less technical, has that power that can change the whole fight in an instant. It is going to be really tough for him to find his shot against a guy like Strickland, but we have seen it before. Also it seems like judges hate Strickland and his little jabs and Philly shell. If Paulo lands hard enough and often enough he should find a spot to end this or do enough damage to get his hand raised anyways.
Paulo Costa by 1st Round TKO +210 1 unit
Kevin Holland vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk Middleweight Bout
Michal Oleksijczuk is kind of a fraud. Dude looked unreal coming into the promotion, putting everyone to sleep he saw. Then something changed in that loss to OSP and he has been terrible ever since. Kevin Holland on the other hand is a fighter everyone loves and always comes out looking to put on a show. He has dropped his last 2 to very good competition who will likely be top 5 fighters in the weight class sooner rather than later. This will be a dismantling, Michal will run out of juice in the first and get pieced up till he quits in the 2nd.
Kevin Holland by 2nd Round Submission (Prop Finish Line) -115 1 unit
Niko Price vs. Alex Morono Welterweight Bout
While this is a fun fight and I am excited to watch it, it probably should’ve been switched with the Jailton Alemeida fight as both of these dudes are far away from contending in this division. Niko is my dude and at one point was a must watch fighter for me. Feels like father time has gotten to him and he just doesn’t have that finishing energy in his striking anymore. Alex Morono on the other hand fights smart and is solid anywhere in the cage. He’s a bit more of a jack of all trades and master of none, but in fights like this, those fighters shine the brightest. Don’t overthink this one.
Alex Morono by Decision (SGP o 1.5 Rds) +115 1 unit
Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos Welterweight Bout
This was my biggest back and forth of the Main Card. Both of these guys have faced some good competition and have some great wins. Randy Brown of course has the great striking with Elizau having the edge in the grappling. In a big fight like this on a PPV, I like to lean toward the grappler. Jitters don’t usually affect the control guys as much as they do the strikers. If Randy struggles early Elizeu will be able to just stack up points until Randy is just swinging for the fences and out of gas. Hate to cheer for a wrestle fucking but I gotta win some bets.
Elizeu Zaleski by Decision +145 1 unit
Prelims
César Almeida vs. Roman Kopylov Middleweight Bout
Cesar Almeida by Decision -115 1 unit
Jailton Almeida vs. Alexander Romanov Heavyweight Bout
Jailton Almeida by 1st Round Submission (Prop Win in Rds 1-2) -125 1 unit
Grant Dawson vs. Joe Solecki Lightweight Bout
Grant Dawson by 2nd Round Submission (Prop Finish Line) +175 1 unit (may put him straight up in a parlay)
Philip Rowe vs. Jake Matthews Welterweight Bout
Jake Matthews by Decision -166 1 unit
Early Prelimins
Mickey Gall vs. Bassil Hafez Welterweight Bout
Bassil Hafez by Decision (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -115 1 unit
Ailín Pérez vs. Joselyne Edwards Bantamweight Bout
Ailin Perez by Decision (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -135 1 unit
Mitch Raposo vs. André Lima Flyweight Bout
Andre Lima by 3rd Round TKO (SGP o 1.5 Rds) -110 1 unit
DraftKings Lineup:
That is all I have for you on this beautiful day of violence. Hopefully I will be able to tweet out my picks in the Arena but you never know how the service will be. If it’s going well my tweets will get less legible as the night goes on due to my celebrating. If it’s going poorly my tweets will get less legible as the night goes on due to drinking also being my coping mechanism. Regardless, we enjoy the good cards when we get them. Make sure to bet responsibly and stick to your units. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!