What a fucking PPV father Dana gave us this glorius Saturday evening. 2 title fights and we get to see the future GOAT maul an actual contender. I love the boosts that DraftKings and FanDuel are giving out today and may even throw another parlay on top of that. This card spoke to me, I watched the film and measured up the strength of competition and truly believe this will be a wonderful night of gambling. I may have gone a little crazy with my title fight picks, but I plan to be up big by then anyways. I can’t contain myself, the Korean Zombie stumbled his way into a title shot, Aljo vs Yan finally will be settled, Khamzat gets to feast, Mackenzie Dern vs Tecia Torres may set up a top contender bout, Mark Madsen comes back to show he is way better than a split decision over Clay Guida, and a fresher hype train in Ian Garry up against a dangerous young prospect in Darian Weeks. The prelims also have some decent value that we will capitalize on to bankroll our PPV. Let’s get into these picks already.
Main Card
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Chan Sung Jung Featherweight Championship Bout
The Korean Zombie is one of my favorite fighters of all time, he had a title shot against Aldo ages ago that he got battered in, then got battered by Ortega in a title eliminator, but here he is. This is his last chance at the belt in his career unless there is another crazy set of circumstances. Volk definitely has more power in his hands, and is the better wrestler, probably the better all around fighter and is a bit younger, but is he willing to go through the depths of hell like TKZ? Zombie is going to use his length to land some distance strikes and when it gets to the ground will be constantly threatening with a submission. I see this going similarly to Ortega vs Volk, but that guillotine will not end and Volk will go out cold.
Chan Sung Jung by 3rd Round Submission +475 1 unit
Aljamain Sterling vs. Petr Yan Bantamweight Championship Bout
This is probably my most stupid bet. Sure I can rationalize a way for TKZ to win because him and Volk have never fought. But I quite literally saw Petr Yan take the life from Aljamain’s eyes after picking him apart for nearly 10 straight minutes. Aljo had an ok 1st and me 2nd before just getting demolished by this little Russian robot. Aljo barely was able to land any takedowns and was getting thrown around like a ragdoll. The thing you don’t know is that I have seen Creed II, I watched Adonis get worked by Drago’s son, then have an incredible training camp and come back and force Drago to throw the towel. Yan is the better fighter, as far as we’ve seen, he has the boxing and wrestling defense to beat anyone in the world. That doesn’t mean that Aljo didn’t get better in the meantime, dude was already the best grappler at 135 and working with the other best grappler at 135 in Merab. If he was able to improve his cardio and strength just a little bit, this fight should be near even. There is nothing fun about betting in someone that is Russian and a 4 to 1 favorite that isn’t Dagi.
Aljamain Sterling by 2nd Round Submission +310 1 unit
Gilbert Burns vs. Khamzat Chimaev Welterweight Bout
Khamzat smesh. This is going to be a demolition. I love Gilbert Burns, I have bet on him a lot. He is easily a top 5 welterweight and will always be near the top. Unfortunately for him, Khamzat is the best prospect I have ever seen in my life. I do not care that Jon Anik said that first, this man has had one significant strike landed on him in 4 UFC fights. There is no one even relatively close to that in UFC history. The hardest part about picking a bet for this is how Khamzat will finish the fight. Gilbert’s submission defense should be good enough that Khamzat just goes for the ground and pound so that is how I am going. The finish prop line was at -165 earlier this week and I would have put a gross amount on that if it stayed that way, but now it is -210 or higher. So let’s hope Khamzat does what he does best, smesh.
Khamzat Chimaev by 1st Round TKO (Prop Line) +110 3 units
Mackenzie Dern vs. Tecia Torres Strawweight Bout
This one had me back and forth, more so than any other fight on the card. Tecia Torres is one of those fighters who will always beat the bad and average fighters, then struggle against the top competition. Take a look at her losses and nearly all of them have fought for a title, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Marina Rodriguez eventually does too. Mackenzie Dern is a bit of a one trick pony, but that trick is pretty fucking good. She has the best BJJ in the division by a good margin, and arguably looks the best in the Venom shorts. Tecia is very technically sound, but her wrestling defense may not be good enough to keep this standing. I see this ending the way Mackenzie Dern finishes her lesser opponents, but I am not crazy confident in that.
Mackenzie Dern by 1st Round Submission -120 1 unit
Vinc Pichel vs. Mark Madsen Lightweight Bout
This is perfect matchmaking. 2 older fighters who have looked very good in their last few bouts that likely won’t be able to make it all the way to a title shot. Vinc has shocked me in every single fight he has had, also pretty sure I’ve bet against him in each one of them. This time I see it going a bit differently. Austin Hubbard managed to get Vinc to the ground a few times in their bout, and he isn’t near the caliber of Mark “The Olympian” Madsen. Mark had a very weird fight against Clay Guida, where he never really tried to get it to the ground. If he has the same strategy for this bout, I will request him on venmo to cover my debts. This will be a wrestle fucking for the ages and will likely not be very entertaining.
Mark Madsen by Decision +105 1 unit
Prelims
Ian Garry vs. Darian Weeks Welterweight Bout
Ian Garry by 2nd Round TKO (Prop Finish Line) -105 2 units
Anthony Hernandez vs. Josh Fremd Middleweight Bout
Josh Fremd by 3rd Round TKO +160 1 unit
Aspen Ladd vs. Raquel Pennington Bantamweight Bout
Aspen Ladd by Decision +160 1 unit
Mickey Gall vs. Mike Malott Welterweight Bout
Mike Malott by 2nd Round TKO (Prop Finish Line) +110 1 unit
Early Prelims
Alexey Oleynik vs. Jared Vanderaa Heavyweight Bout
Alexey Oleynik by 1st Round Submission +105 1 unit
Piera Rodriguez vs. Kay Hansen Strawweight Bout
Piera Rodriguez by Decision -135 2 units
Julio Arce vs. Daniel Santos Bantamweight Bout
Daniel Santos by 3rd Round TKO +155 1 unit
DraftKings Lineup:
Favorite Boosts:
That is all I have for you on this wonderful PPV night. Really love these bets, stay small units on the early underdogs. I like them but not enough to hurt our bankroll for the bigger fights later. Go heavy on Chimaev, Rodriguez, and Ian Garry stay light pretty much everywhere else. Remember to bet responsibly and don’t bet while blackout drunk. As always, may luck be your lady tonight!