Jake’s Punch Lines UFC 249

I can’t believe this is real. We have fights this very night. One of the greatest cards the bald man upstairs has ever put together is here, tonight, in Jacksonville, Florida. Having been in isolation in New York, one of the hardest hit spots in the world by this stupid fucking virus has been less than ideal. All of a sudden daddy Dana comes through and puts together an incredible card. Then it gets cancelled. But then he does it again! I am writing this blog a little earlier than normal because I am just so filled with excitement that I have sanctioned violence back in my life (and gambling but that’s a deeper rooted issue). The opportunities to gamble on real sports are fewer and further between so we have to make sure we do this right.

Look, I want Tony vs Khabib as much as any MMA fan does. But Tony vs Justin is such a good replacement it’s hard to be mad about it. Has there ever been a more violent matchup put together? Followed up by Cejudo vs Cruz, which will be a very good fight, I can’t say I’m not concerned about when the title defense will come after, no matter who wins. Those 2 love layoffs. Ngannou vs Rozenstruik are you fucking kidding me? The most power ever put in the same octagon together, it’s making my mouth water just thinking about it. This is Dana’s Mona Lisa, his Sistine Chapel, he will never be able to top this and I can live with that to take all of our collective minds off what is going on around the world right now.

With that being said, let’s move on to the picks:

Main Card

Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje Lightweight Interim Title Bout

There is no possible way to convey how excited I am for this fight. Tony vs Khabib is stylistically one of the most interesting matchups you can put together in terms of Tony may have the tools to be his weakness with submissions off the back and razor blades for elbows. But Tony vs Justin is the perfect matchup if you want to see 2 men stand in the center of the octagon and beat the ever living shit out of each other till there is no part of the canvas not covered in blood. 

Tony is a monster, 12 straight wins in a row, with only 3 of those going to decision. He elbows, he bloodies, he submits. I am not sure I have ever seen a fighter like him ever before. He is prone to taking damage early and has been nearly finished in several fights, but if the ref lets him continue he will make it a problem for you. As the fight goes on he will gash up your face like you are fighting Wolverine. I know nearly every fighter has been cut in a bout before but something about the way he does it so consistently has to get into the opponent’s head and make them reconsider every mistake they have ever made in life. 

Justin Gaethje is a juggernaut. This man seems to be able to take an incredible amount of damage and bring it right back to you. He only has 2 losses in his career, one to a former champion in Eddie Alvarez and former interim champion in Dustin Poirier. Outside of that he has destroyed his competition, only going to the judges scorecards twice in his whole career. He was an outstanding wrestler in college earning All-American honors, but never employs that in his bouts. 

The hardest part of picking for this bout is simply that both guys do not play defense. They are perfectly ok with taking a ton of damage as long as they are able to deliver damage right back. That being said, if you are going to fight like that, Tony Ferguson’s style will wear down on you much worse. Justin Gaethje is my favorite fighter in all of MMA right now. With that being said, Tony is the more well rounded fighter and has far more weapons to end this one. Tony seems hungrier, he wants that Khabib fight, and he knows what he has to do to make it happen again. I hate doing this, but I have to to be right.

Tony Ferguson by 4th Round TKO -215 2 units

Henry Cejudo vs Dominick Cruz Bantamweight Title Bout

I fucking hate Henry Cejudo. I think he lost to Demetrius Johnson. He should have never gotten a chance to have that stupid super fight with TJ, then that fight with Moraes. Unfortunately, he is a very good mixed martial artist. His cringe is one of the worst things to ever happen to the sport, but he earned that second belt fairly. Now, I need it to be taken away to shut down his god awful shit talk.

Dominick Cruz is a frustrating guy. He fights like Floyd, taking very little damage and barely landing. He gets injured training nearly once a year because of how unorthodox his style is. If he manages to win this fight and get the belt, who knows when he will ever be able to defend it. Other than that, he is a phenomenal fighter. Cejudo fought a very good fighter in Moraes to win the bantamweight belt, but was getting smacked around for 2 rounds. Cruz is a better fighter if he even returns to the form that lost to Garbrant. He won’t gas out, and does not take damage. If you want to bet on this fight, you are an absolute idiot to not take the former champ as such a heavy dog, the man has only lost twice before and one of those losses he’s avenged… twice. Lock in the Dominator, favorite bet of the night.

Dominick Cruz by Decision +160 1.5 units

Francis Ngannou vs Jair Rozenstruik Heavyweight Bout

I am not sure what we as fight fans did to deserve this card. There is so much pure violence on this card it is making my man bits quiver. These 2 guys have had near identical careers, Jair just hasn’t gotten to the point Francis reached in his title bout. Jair has knocked the life out of every opponent he has ever faced, dropping several of them with light jabs. He is an awesome addition to the heavyweight rankings and I get so incredibly excited when he is on any card.

Francis Ngannou did all that first, destroying everyone he faced up until his title shot where his weaknesses were exposed with no ground game whatsoever. After that he got in his own head and had the worst fight of all time Derrick Lewis (which I was just as excited for as this bout). Jair will not let this bout be like the Lewis bout and Ngannou knows this. Ngannou has beaten a lot more top guys in a more devastating fashion. I think his height and reach will play a big factor in this one and he will take this one and derail a bit of that Jair hype train.

Francis Ngannou by 2nd Round KO -265 3 units

Jeremy Stephens vs Calvin Kattar Featherweight Bout

I usually really hate on guys that miss weight since it is your fucking job, but circumstances right now are a bit different so I’ll let that slide for lil heathen. Jeremy Stephens has had a pretty rough go of things lately. Had a main event against Yair Rodriguez end after 15 seconds due to a bad eye poke only to rematch him in a 3 round bout and not do enough to win (even though he looked like he could have given 2 more rounds), he lost his 2 prior to that as well. He has not looked like the same fighter as of late and that is definitely starting to bug him.

Calvin Kattar could be put in a similar boat, he was supposed to fight Zabit in a 5 round bout, but it got rescheduled and he got beat in 3 when it looked as if he could win in 5 since he was fresher. Calvin is a great fighter who has had a hard time taking that extra little step into becoming elite. That being said, I believe Stephens should be no problem for him. Stephens looks to have had a harsh weight cut, he has had a bit of a decline in performance in every fight, and just has a lot more weighing on him that Kattar does in this bout.

Calvin Kattar by Decision -295 2 units

Greg Hardy vs Yorgan de Castro Heavyweight Bout

I hate Greg Hardy and I always will. Always need to preface that so you understand my extreme biases going into his fights. Other than that, these guys have the same tools, extremely heavy hands. If you are going to bet on an unranked heavyweight fight, you should always bet on the dog. How are you gonna take a bite on a bet when literally one punch can put someone’s lights out at any second. When they are ranked you have an easier time ranking the ability of their previous opponents. Other than his loss to Volkov, Hardy hasn’t fought anyone half decent in his career. Let’s ride with de Castro and hope he can land that one punch he needs.

Yorgan De Castro by 2nd Round KO +180 1 unit

Prelims

Anthony Pettis vs Donald Cerrone Welterweight Bout

This is a fun rematch we got here. Both guys, exponentially worse than when they fought previously. The real question is, who has taken a bigger fall in talent? Pettis has lost 4 out of his last 5, with the lone win being a lucky superman punch on Wonderboy, who was piecing him up with ease. Cowboy is on a 3 fight losing streak, all losses to top fighters in the world. His fight against McGregor was the most disappointing I have ever been in a fighter in my whole life. I had a hard time sleeping that night. It felt like he did it to me personally. 

These guys kinda stink and I think this makes everything a bit more entertaining. An interesting discussion I had with my brother is how the lack of crowd noise will affect things. He believes Cowboy is too much of an adrenaline junkie and needs the crowd to amp him up. To me, the silence will help him get over the nerves he always seems to have in the first round. He will be able to pick Pettis apart like he has done in all of his wins and none of his losses. Lock in Cowboy why the fuck not.

Donald Cerrone by 2nd Round Submission +125 1 unit

Aleksei Oleinik vs Fabricio Werdum Heavyweight Bout

These guys are super fucking old. Aleksei Oleinik coming off a big submission win over a not very good opponent. 2 straight losses before that and he is so damn old. Fabricio Werdum has taken a 2 year layoff after a loss to Alexander Volkov. If Werdum is half the fighter he was before the gap, he should take this fight with relative ease.

Fabricio Werdum by 1st Round TKO -300 1 unit (don’t bet on these guys, it’s not worth it)

Carla Esparza vs Michelle Waterson Strawweight Bout

This will be a fun close fight. Both of these girls are cream of the crop for the strawweight division, just haven’t been able to make the jump recently (Carla had the belt for like a second). Carla had a close fight with Alexa Grasso at the end of last year that she squeaked a win out of and a win over Virna Jandiroba before that after 2 consecutive losses to rising stars in the class. Michelle Waterson put together 3 impressive wins before losing to Joanna who arguably should have the belt right now. I am going to go with the dog here, I feel like it is such a close fight, you might as well get the value for it.

Michelle Waterson by Decision +125 1 unit

Vincente Luque vs Niko Price Welterweight Bout

Niko Price is one of the most entertaining fighters I have ever seen in the octagoned circle. This man loves to stand and beat the shit out of you, but he will also lay on his back and beat the shit out of you. I believe he is the only fighter in UFC history with 2 TKOs off his back. Luque loves to stand and bang also. Coming off a loss to Wonderboy and a close win off Mike Perry (I thought he lost that one) he is looking to cement himself as a threat in this weight class. The issue is, I do not think Luque has the power to beat Niko, you need to knock this man out to stop him and that just won’t happen here. I am riding with the man Niko Price.

Niko Price by 2nd Round TKO +195 1 unit

Early Prelims

Bryce Mitchell vs Charles Rosa Featherweight Bout

Bryce Mitchell by Decision -165 1 Unit

Ryan Spann vs Sam Alvey Light Heavyweight Bout

Ryan Spann by 1st Round TKO -450 5 units (I see no way Smilin Sam wins this bout, bridge jump if you want)

That wraps up this beautiful night of fight picks. I am so happy to be writing again, this was the perfect card to bring me back to my glory. I am sure my bookie is super stoked for me to be back too with all of these tantalizing over under bets I can lose my savings on. Make sure to keep up with our twitter account to follow any live action we are giving out. Enjoy the gambling and enjoy the violence, and as always, may luck be your lady tonight.