With a 27 day gap between events (what the fuck UFC, this has been brutal) we are finally back and get to a top 5 worst PPV lineup ever! Sure it seems like I am often negative about these events but you don’t have a single top contender on a PPV you aren’t going to get any praise from me, let alone no title fight. Cowboy vs Conor is an awesome matchup and I am excited for it, don’t get me wrong, but to be the main event of a PPV at 170? Like c’mon Dana, you have to really hope that his name is still that strong of a draw to get numbers. Being the cynic that I am, this card failing will make me incomprehensibly happy. If this ends up losing to a bunch of the PPVs from last year, it will only force the UFC’s hand to not give us such a weak event that they plan to charge $65 for (last year they were $60).
Ok negativity over, let’s get to the cool parts of this card. Aleksei Oleinik is stepping up for his 72nd professional bout against TUF vet Maurice Greene. Holly Holm looks to return to relevance against Raquel Pennington. Anthony Pettis has never been in a boring bout in his life, win or lose, he should give us a nice treat vs Carlos Ferreira. For the featured prelim we get to see the lady Nicest Mother Fucker take on undefeated Maycee Barber. As long as we try super hard, we can rationalize why this is a PPV, but like try super super hard.
Without further ado, here are my picks:
Main Card
Conor McGregor vs Donald Cerrone Welterweight Bout
This one is so hard for me. Cowboy is arguably my favorite fighter of all time. He was fighting around 5-6 times a year, they were always entertaining, some of the best combinations, loves drinking beer, has no regard for his well being outside of the octagon, and is just one bad motherfucker. After he got absolutely destroyed by RDA I was gutted. Then he moved up to 170 and looked like he might be able to make a run rattling off 4 straight wins. After, he lost 4 out of 5 and I became more adjusted to him losing. Eventually he decided to go back down to 155 and looked great again! Got two wins pretty quick before getting destroyed by Tony and Gaethje. Now he is back at 170 to face one of the best strikers in MMA history.
Conor McGregor. Conor fucking McGregor. Man do I dislike this guy. I have never liked him. I wanted him to lose against Aldo. I wanted him to lose against Alvarez. I wanted him to lose against Diaz (which I believe he did twice). Khabib made him his bitch, I don’t care if he drank that week, or had an injury, or whatever his shit excuse was. The man got completely dominated by a far superior fighter. Now he comes in, laser focused, looking the best he ever has, perfect weight cut, and ready to bring himself back into title shot talks. Conor has arguably the best left hand in the whole UFC, maybe the world. Cowboy has this cute little thing he loves to do where he doesn’t avoid any strikes to the face and ends up losing in the spotlight.
All of that being said I am riding with Cowboy. Oh I seem crazy?!?!? You are damn right I am. Cowboy is the taller fighter, Cowboy is the more well rounded fighter (BJJ blackbelt), and Cowboy is a better person and will rise to the occasion for the first time in his career. Cowboy keeps claiming that he just wants to stand and bang. This is a clear misdirection to fool Conor. Cowboy will exchange for a little before ducking under a wild left hook to secure the take down and tire him. I completely understand if you do not want to ride this with me, just remember that history favors the victors. Also Hammer this over if you agree Cowboy is going to win.
Cowboy Cerrone by 4th Round Submission +260 1 unit
Holly Holm vs Raquel Pennington Bantamweight Bout
REMATCH OF THE DECADE! Well I guess by default. How this fight is the co-main is completely beyond my comprehension. Like does anyone care? Last time these two met it ended in a split decision. Raquel has been better as of late but that isn’t saying much having lost 2 of her last three (albeit to great competition). I am going to give this one to Holly just because this is for sure going the distance and I think she is more equipped to win on points.
Holly Holm by Decision -130 1 unit
Aleksei Oleinik vs Maurice Greene Heavyweight Bout
I really like Maurice Greene, him and Justin Frazier were the only entertaining part of TUF 28 by a good margin. He has crazy heavy hands and has an ok BJJ game having started at START BJJ to lose weight early in his career. Oleinik is 9 years older than him and is coming off a bad KO loss to Walt Harris in 12 seconds of the first round. That being said, I think that Oleinik fights this one smart and manages to take things to the ground and secure a submission victory.
Aleksei Oleinik by 1st Round Submission +105 1 unit
Anthony Pettis vs Carlos Ferreira Lightweight Bout
This is a super tough pick here. Anthony Pettis has never been the same since he lost to RDA (seems like someone else on this card). He has jumped around weight classes trying to find his natural home where he can climb back to the top again but has faltered each time. He had a crazy superman punch KO over Wonderboy, but that felt incredibly flukey. He lost handedly to Nate Diaz, he almost beat Tony Ferguson but ended up getting crushed when he wasn’t able to finish the job and has been pretty much going back and forth between wins and losses for a while now.
Carlos Ferreira is on a 5 fight winning streak with his only 2 losses coming before that to Dustin Poirier and Beneil Dariush, two very good fighters. He has been very dominant in his wins, with only his first fight being a split decision. Against everything I want to do, everything I believe in, I am siding with Ferreira in this bout. I went with my heart with Cowboy and don’t want to do it twice. For Pettis to win I feel he has to get lucky, I think Ferreira beats him on talent and has long as he fights his fight, should come out with the win.
Carlos Ferreira by Decision -250 2 units
Prelims
Roxanne Modafferi vs Mayce Barber Flyweight Bout
Roxanne is the nicest person on this planet. She messaged Maycee to let her know that their hotel doesn’t have baths to cut weight in and to try to find an alternative. She did not have to do that, she gave up her, arguably only, competitive advantage. That being said, Maycee Barber is so much better than her, I do not think this fight will even be competitive. Mayce by a million.
Maycee Barber by Decision -885 4 units
Andre Fili vs Sodiq Yusuff Featherweight Bout
This is probably the most back and forth I have been on a fight in a while. I like Sodiq Yusuff a lot and think he will be a force in this weight class for years to come. That being said I also think Andre Fili is starting to get his groove back rattling off wins in a row after a split decision loss to Michael Johnson. I hate to say it but I’m riding with Fili here. He has more experience against better competition and his +115 line is really juicy.
Andre Fili by Decision +115 1 unit
Tim Elliott vs Askar Askarov Flyweight Bout
I like Tim Elliott a lot but I think his cut down to flyweight hurts him a lot. His stint on TUF was one of my favorites earning a title shot against Mighty Mouse but he really hasn’t done much since. Askar Akarov is coming off a draw performance against Brandon Moreno (who was also on that TUF season) and is looking to get back to his winning ways. I am going to take Askar in this one.
Askar Askarov by 2nd Round Submission -145 1 units
Drew Dober vs Nasrat Haqparast Lightweight Bout
Slightly smaller Kelvin, Nasrat, is here to take care of business and should be able to fairly easily. Drew Dober hasn’t been more than a journeyman in his now 7th year in the UFC. I am riding with Nasrat.
Nasrat Haqparast by 3rd Round TKO -335 3 units
Chas Skelly vs Grant Dawson Featherweight Bout
I don’t have too much to say about this one. I think Grant Dawson is a far better fighter and will show it again in Vegas. I really like Skelly, but I do not believe he is on the same level as Dawson here.
Grant Dawson by 2nd Round Submission -275 2 units
Early Prelims
Aleksa Camur vs Justin Ledet Light Heavyweight Bout
Aleksa Camur by 1st Round TKO -125 1 unit
Brian Kelleher vs Ode Osbourne Bantamweight Bout
Ode Osbourne by 3rd Round Submission -145 1 unit
Sabina Mazo vs JJ Aldrich Flyweight Bout
JJ Aldrich by Decision -113 1 unit
That wraps up this evening of fights hopefully with a nice full wallet and bookies contemplating closing down their books. As always, keep an eye on 1.5 round overs and 2.5 round unders as they are some of the most electrifying bets you can make in any sport. Even though this card isn’t anything special and I believe if you pay for it you are a bit of a sucker, that doesn’t mean these warriors aren’t going to put it all on the line in order to be on a card that isn’t a joke in the future. I expect some finishes and some fun post win speeches to match the bravado of that fella in the main event. So as always, may luck be your lady on Saturday night.