UFC is back in the titty bar capital of America, fuckin’ Tampa. We have a shockingly stacked card coming after one of the bigger PPVs of the year. I had horrible, horrible, horrible picks last week and I am looking to redeem myself and have a bounce back week and possibly achieve the ever so elusive perfect night. Similar to me, Joanna *insert last name here* is looking to bounce back after dropping 3 out of her last 4. Shit we have a ton of people trying to get back in the win column this week with Cub losing 4 in a row, and Vick having lost 3 in a row. The theme of this card is redemption, but with some tough matchups ahead it may be unattainable.
This is a 14 fight card so we have a ton of opportunities to win money from our dumb shitty books and get rich. There are a few underdogs that I like today that can fatten our wallets a tad bit and a ton of 2 and a half round unders that just seem way too juicy to just ignore. I am excited for this card, maybe it’s my irrational love for all things Tampa, Florida, or because there is just no way this one could go worse for me than the last did. Also, Niko Price is fighting and there is no one that perfectly embodies exactly what fight fans want in a fighter than him. Let us pray to our god Dana White that we get some finishes, and fair officiating/judging with as little controversy as possible (unless it helps our bets).
Without further ado, here are my picks for the evening:
Main Card
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Michelle Waterson Strawweight Bout
This fight seemed doomed in the middle of the week with rumors of Joanna not being able to make weight and Waterson refusing to take a catchweight bout. Joanna put those rumors to sleep making the limit by half a pound and being able to proudly display her fake breasts in the city that celebrates them more than any other. Joanna has had a rough go of things with finder her kryptonite in Thug Rose and then having no option but to try to move up and beat Valentina who was just too strong for her. She is back now with Thug Rose out of the throne, ready to make her comeback and take the division.
There is one woman currently standing in her way, the Karate Hottie, Michelle Waterson. Michelle is looking to shock the world and beat one of the best female fighters of all time, and pave her way towards becoming the first mom champ. Michelle is coming off of 3 straight wins hoping to make it 4, shows she belongs at the top. Both these ladies are proficient strikers so do not expect this fight to hit the canvas, but I think that Joanna has too much of an advantage on the feet. She has a 3 inch reach advantage and stands 3 inches taller, I think she will be able to fight at the distance she wants and pick the hottie apart. Also under 4.5 rounds is +225 which I am not telling you to take, but like if someone accidentally gets knocked out at almost any point within 22.5 minutes you win.
Joanna Jerdzejczyk by 4th Round TKO (for the sake of the under) -350 3 units
Cub Swanson vs Kron Gracie Featherweight Bout
Cub is another man who is looking to have his hand raised for the first time in a long time after this bout. He just seems to have been clearly the second best fighter in every fight he has been in (I don’t care that it was a split decision, I think Burgos won that fight clearly). Kron of the legendary Gracie family comes in undefeated, putting on BJJ clinics winning each bout by submission. I do not think Kron has been tested by any means, but I think Cub isn’t talented enough to challenge someone that his this high level of BJJ. It might take longer than normal but Kron will wrap him up and eventually squeeze the air out of Cub.
Kron Gracie by 2nd Round Submission -175 2 units
Niko Price vs James Vick Welterweight Bout
I fucking love Niko Price and absolutely hate James Vick. Ok hate is a strong word but his lead up to the Gaethje fight was so shitty, and he was so arrogant that watching him get knocked the fuck out was one of my top moments in UFC history. Vick has dropped his last three and is attributing it to his horrible weight cut, now moving up to 170 in hopes of competing again. I think he is going to have the same problems as he had before and get overwhelmed by strikers and not be able to implement his game plan. Niko wants to get into the middle of that octagon and go to war and I am not sure that James Vick is mentally well enough to handle it. We are riding with the Hybrid in this one, lock in Niko.
Niko Price by 1st Round TKO -155 2 units
Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas Strawweight Bout
Dern is back after giving birth and actually made weight also, which is honestly pretty shocking. She looks like she has shored up her striking and is ready to show why she was such a highly touted prospect coming into the UFC. She comes up against Amanda Ribas who looked great in her UFC debut in her last bout and is hoping to get some attention in this 115 division. Both these ladies are excellent BJJ practitioners with Ribas having a slight advantage on the feet. I really want to pick Dern, but this is a perfect opportunity to ride a dog that has a solid opportunity to win this fight. Riding Ribas lets go.
Amanda Ribas by Decision +125 1 unit
Matt Frevola vs Luis Peña Lightweight Bout
We got a Long Island boy in Matt Frevola coming in against TUF alumni Luis Peña in what should make for a fun battle in the octagon. I like Frevola a lot, his lost to Marco Polo Reyes was tough but I like what I have seen from him in other fights, both on the feet and in the grappling department. Violent Bob Ross has been up against pretty weak competition in his bouts, fighting guys that look completely lost under the lights. This fight is pretty even in my opinion so I am going to say fuck and and ride the dog again. It might be because he is from Long Island, it might be because I was pulling for Trizano on TUF, but I feel like Frevola will take this one.
Matt Frevola by Decision +145 1 unit
Eryk Anders vs Gerald Meerschaert Middleweight Bout
Eryk Anders is Ya Boi, he is My Boi, he is Our Boi. I love his move from football to MMA. He looks like he has the ability to be a real competitor in the UFC. But the dude fucking hates using his right hand. I do not understand why but the guy will only throw his left fucking hand. He is back down to 185 after a brief LHW stint where I believe he was too undersized and would not be able to make a real jump for the rankings. He is up against Meershcaert who is coming off a submission win over Trevin Giles. Gerald’s career has been pretty much all over the place not having made the jump that people thought he might be able to. Both of these guys have a ton to prove in this bout in whether or not they belong in this organization. With all of that being said, I think Ya Boi gets back in the win column finally here. He has the tools to be a real force to be reckoned with, he just needs to put it all together.
Eryk Anders by 2nd Round TKO -140 1 unit
Prelims
Ryan Spann vs Devin Clark Light Heavyweight Bout
Ryan Spann by 1st Round TKO -135 1 unit
Mike Davis vs Thomas Gifford Lightweight Bout
Mike Davis by 2nd Round TKO -305 2 units
Max Griffin vs Alex Morono Welterweight Bout
Max Griffin by Decision -135 2 units
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Tim Elliott Flyweight Bout
Tim Elliott by Decision +155 1 unit
Marlon Vera vs Andre Ewell Bantamweight Bout
Andre Ewell by 3rd Round TKO +135 1 unit
Miguel Baeza vs Hector Aldana Welterweight Bout
Miguel Baeza by Decision -235 3 units
Marvin Vettori vs Andrew Sanchez Middleweight Bout
Marvin Vettori by Decision -410 2 units
JJ Aldrich vs Lauren Mueller Flyweight Bout
JJ Aldrich by Decision -170 1 unit
Those are my picks for this beautiful night in Tampa, fucking Florida. I really like these picks, might even venture to say I love these picks. My energy is good, I haven’t done anything shitty lately to fuck my karma up, and I fasted for Yom Kippur. This is the night it all comes together and I get to win so much money that I have to file it on my taxes. If my picks for some reason happen to miss, at least I get to look at Mackenzie Dern and Michelle Waterson for a little bit. I’ll leave it at that, may luck be your lady tonight.