¡Hola Amigos! Our Mexico City fight night is upon us and it is one of the most interesting betting events on the UFC calendar. On the surface it seems like any other fight night, some solid matchups, not a crazy stacked card but nothing to really get upset about. But in that lies the secret, Mexico City is nearly 7,500 and can make even the best fighters perform like a 40 year old BJ Penn. This is where we saw Cain get worked by Werdum in one of the more shocking upsets in recent memory. In this age of horribly extreme weight cutting, this elevation will only exasperate cardio issues even further. 

This should be a fun card with not too much on the line in any of the fights. The winner of the main event will probably be 2 or 3 fights away from a title shot, which is probably the lowest stakes top fight we’ve had on a card in ages. One thing I’m pretty excited about is this card seems to be showing the UFC backing the Flyweight division. Sergio Pettis is the highest ranked fighter on this whole card for their respective weight classes, he’s tucked way into the prelims. Not too much to really talk about with this card really, hoping we get to some nice highlights and some good money.

Lets get on with the picks:

Main Event

Yair Rodriguez vs Jeremy Stephens Featherweight Bout

The main event this fight night is an incredible matchup of guys who like to swing. Not in the weird way. They like to stand and bang. Wait fuck not like that either. These are two gentlemen that just want to get into the octagon and pound each other out. Alright whatever you get my point. I had been leaning towards Yair since this card was first announced. He has grown a ton as a fighter with only one loss in the UFC to the great Frankie Edgar. He had a crazy finish against The Korean Zombie but would have lost that fight on points if it lasted one more second. 

Stephens has been on a skid having dropped consecutive fights to Jose Aldo and Zabit Magomedsharipov (First try on the spelling, props to me). Before that he was on a nice little 3 fight win streak and looked like he figured out how to compete in this weight class. I am not going to sit here and say the Lil Heathen will ever really get to title contention, but I think he will be the gatekeeper that stops guys like Yair from getting their chance. He has been doing some crazy Tony Ferguson training and has moved his camp to just outside of Mexico City to get adjusted to the altitude. I think if Yair takes the same shots in this fight as he took against TKZ he will be knocked the fuck out, so I’m giving the edge to Stephens.

Jeremy Stephens by 2nd Round TKO +131 1 unit

Carla Esparza vs Alexa Grasso Strawweight Bout

I really really really wanted to give this one to Esparza. She was the division’s first champion, always putting it all in the octagon, and has never had issues getting to the 115 limit. I wanted to pick her over Grasso because that weight cut has hurt her before and that mixed with the altitude can crush you and gas you out real quick. With that being said, I just think Grasso is too talented of a fighter to lose this, no matter the altitude. She is a Mexico native and is well aware of this issue and I do not believe she would let it stop her from winning this fight. Her grappling is on another level from Esparza and I do believe it will be on display tonight.

Alexa Grasso by 3rd Round Submission -129 2 units

Brandon Moreno vs Askar Askarov Flyweight Bout

Other than having a douchebag of a father or naming him Askar Askarov I don’t know too much about this Russian newcomer. He has finished all of his opponents in his young 10 fight career and seems to be on track to be yet another dominant Rusky coming into the UFC. Moreno is an incredible BJJ practitioner who debuted on TUF at the age of 22. He is a great fighter but has had some trouble against next level competition. I have a hard time picking against these Russians, they are well trained and disciplined, seldom making any mistakes. I am giving the edge to Askarov on this one, from what I’ve read about the guy, he is a wrecking ball that will do what he needs to to not let things go to the judges.

Askar Askarov by 2nd Round Submission -169 1 unit

Irene Aldana vs Vanessa Melo

I do not have much to add to this one, Melo took this fight on a few days notice and missed weight. There is no way she can handle Aldana or the altitude with so little training time. If Melo wins this I would truly be shocked.

Irene Aldana by Decision -500 3 units

Martin Bravo vs Steven Peterson Featherweight Bout

You are hard pressed to find many fights with two people whose last losses are against Bruce Leroy. I don’t think either of these guys are exceptional fighters but Martin Bravo is only 25 makes fewer mistakes. Peterson has been worked in his last 2 bouts and doesn’t show many signs of improvement. I am going to give Bravo the edge, especially on a pickem line like we have here. 

Marvin Bravo by Decision -114 2 units

Prelims

José Quiñónez vs Carlos Huachin Bantamweight Bout

José Quiñónez by 1st Round Submission -235 2 units

Marco Polo Reyes vs Kyle Nelson Lightweight Bout

Kyle Nelson by 2nd Round TKO -114 1 unit

Ariane Carnelossi vs Angela Hill Strawweight Bout

Ariane Carnelossi by Decision -144 1 unit

Sergio Pettis vs Tyson Nam Flyweight Bout

Sergio Pettis by Decision -253 2 units

VInicius Moreira vs Paul Craig Light heavyweight Bout

Paul Craig by 3rd Round Decision -154 1 unit

Sijara Eubanks vs Bethe Correia Bantamweight Bout

Sijara Eubanks by Decision -300 2 units

Claudio Puelles vs Marcos Rosa Mariano Lightweight Bout

Claudio Puelles by 2nd Round TKO -278 3 units

This might be the most frustrating Punch Line blog I have ever had to write. I only liked one underdog on the whole card. I will put the disclaimer that Oddsshark.com had some messed up lines because my book had some of these people listed as dogs, but I need to keep my consistency. Angela Hill almost swayed me but I think it’s just because I love her on twitter. Reach for the dogs if you wish, I will never fault someone for that, but it is very hard to rationalize on this night going for them. You could probably say Moreira is a decent underdog pick because of Craig’s gas tank, but my heeby ass would never in a million years pick against the Bear Jew. Well hombres, that’s all I have for you in this week’s Punch Line, come back next week for the disgusting Denmark card that could not seem more forced. May luck be your lady tonight.