I’ve been excited for this card for a while now. It has a solid lineup of fights. And as has been the case since UFC has been pumping out cards weekly, a lot of new names are on the card as well. I have had a crazy week, so I didn’t get to go in depth with my reasoning for some of the picks. I hope UFC Tampa delivers an entertaining night of fights. Enjoy.
MAIN CARD
JOANNA JEDRZEJCZYK V. MICHELLE WATERSON
These are my two favorite strawweight fighters. I love this matchup, but I hate that I will have to watch one of them lose. I think this is a #1 contender fight, and the winner should face Weili Zhang for the strawweight title. Not going to lie, I might prefer Joanna so I can go back to calling her Joanna Champion instead of trying to figure out how spell her last name. Joanna will go down as one of the best woman fighter in UFC history, she has had a great career. She won the strawweight title in her 3rd UFC fight and defended it 5 times before running into Rose Namajunas. That was her first loss. Joanna has lost 3 out of her last 4 fights, but those losses were to Rose Namajunas (twice) and the flyweight Champion Valentina Shevchenko. Joanna has an impressive gas tank and since she has pretty much only fought in 5 round fights, she doesn’t gas out. She is a volume striker and she will try to kill you. She plays mind games and talks trash and will do whatever it takes to win.
She is going up against former Invicta atomweight champion, the Karate Hottie, Michelle Waterson. Waterson is 5-2 in the UFC, with her losses coming to Rose Namajunas (before she was strawweight champion) and Tecia Torres. Those aren’t losses to be ashamed of. Waterson is on a 3-fight winning streak and is looking to become the first Mom Champ.
I like this matchup as it will be a battle. Joanna’s Muay Thai style going up against Waterson’s Karate style leads me to believe they will be on their feet trading blows the entire 25 minutes, unless there is a finish. I think Joanna will be the bigger fighter, and I think her pressure will be too much for Waterson.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk by decision
CUB SWANSON V. KRON GRACIE
Cub Swanson is coming into this fight on a 4-fight losing streak. Those losses are to Brian Ortega, Frankie Edgar, Renato Moicano, and Shane Burgos. Not the easiest stretch of fights. Cub has had one of the better careers in the featherweight division. He is always up for a challenge and has had some great fights. He is going up against a member of the legendary Gracie family, Kron. Kron made his UFC debut in February, beating Alex Caceres in the first round with a rear naked choke. The most impressive thing about the win, is that everyone knew Kron was going to try to get a submission, and he was still able to pull it off. Kron is 5-0 with 5 submission wins. Cub knows Kron is going to be trying to choke him out. Cub was having issues finding a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu gym because of their loyalty to the Gracies. I think this fight is going to go the way we all know it will end up going.
Kron Gracie by 1st round submission
JAMES VICK V. NIKO PRICE
I got giddy when I saw this matchup. This should be a fight to watch on this card. It will probably end in explosive fashion. That is the style Niko Price goes for, and it is what has made him a fan favorite, including me. Win or lose, preferably winning, Niko wants to put on a show for the fans. James Vick has been known to get into firefights as well. This is Vick’s first fight at welterweight, and he is hoping the lack of a weight cut will bring him some luck. I am a fan of fighters fighting at their natural weight, and think it is beneficial, but Vick sounded a little hesitant about his training camp because he didn’t have to cut weight. That can be a downfall of fighters fighting up a weight class, they might not work as hard because they don’t have to cut weight. I hate to rag on him, but I felt that is what happened to Max Holloway in his lightweight fight against Dustin Poirier. Vick is on a 3-fight losing streak and has been knocked out in the first round in 2 of those losses. The way to beat Vick is to bring the fight to him and do it quickly. He is very tall and lanky, so you must get inside to be effective. Gaethje and Hooker showed how to beat him by attacking him right away. This matches up well with what Niko Price likes to do. Niko will bring the fight to Vick and I think Niko will get the job done.
Niko Price by 1st round TKO
MIKE DAVIS V. THOMAS GIFFORD
Mike Davis by decision
MACKENZIE DERN V. AMANDA RIBAS
Mackenzie Dern is making her first walk to the octagon since giving birth and she looks renewed. We’ve seen some new dads recently come out more motivated than ever. Dern is hoping to follow the footsteps of Michelle Waterson and Raquel Pennington that have been fighting well since becoming a mom. Dern is an all world Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner. Probably the best in the division. She made weight and said it was easiest cut she’s had.
She’s going up against up and coming American Top Team’s Amand Ribas. Ribas won her UFC debut against Emily Whitmire, by rear naked choke in the second round. Ribas is the more well rounded fighter. Definitely better when standing. But she likes to clinch and grapple. And Dern is a lot better in that area. So Ribas is going to have to try to keep this fight at kickboxing range.
The problem for Ribas, Dern has a decent straight punch and when Ribas gets hit, she likes to clinch and try to grapple and she shouldn’t try that with Dern.
Mackenzie Dern by 2nd round submission
LUIS PENA V. MATT FREVOLA
Every time Luis Pena steps into the Octagon, he seems to have gotten better. His nickname is very apt for his style, he is Violent and kind of looks like Bob Ross. While looking into this matchup, I came to the realization that Luis Pena trains with Khabib. Is there a better way to improve than train with one of the best fighters ever? Pena is going to bring it as he tries to move up the division pecking order. And since he trains with Khabib, he doesn’t desire a title shot yet. So, he will move up the ladder slowly. I think Pena is ready for better talent, but I appreciate that he doesn’t want to jump to the top of the division. He wants to earn his title shot. Matt Frevola is a Serra-Long MMA guy, and it is hard for me to go against them, but I don’t like this matchup for him. Frevola is a grinder, and very hard working, but he has had a rocky start to his UFC career, and I can’t see him beating Pena here.
Luis Pena by 2nd round TKO
ERYK ANDERS V. GERALD MEERSCHAERT
I like Eryk Anders. I like his story. I tend to root for him. Unfortunately, I don’t think he has improved that much since he joined the UFC. I think he might have started too late. It’s hard to improve your fight IQ and fight confidence. Anders has looked slow and plodding in his last couple of fights. He doesn’t seem like he can pull the trigger and he hopes his opponent will make a mistake that he can take advantage of.
Gerald Meerschaert hasn’t been the most consistent fighter and definitely not the most exciting. But his grappling is good, and Anders is still new to grappling. Meerschaert is also the more willing striker and will stay active.
Gerald Meerschaert by decision
PRELIMS
RYAN SPANN V. DEVIN CLARK
Ryan Spann by decision
MAX GRIFFIN V. ALEX MORONO
Max Griffin by 2nd round TKO
DEIVESON FIGUIEREDO V. TIM ELLIOTT
I am shocked this fight is on the prelims. I guess if Tim Elliott wasn’t coming off a long layoff he might have cracked the main card. This is a veteran matchup of some exciting flyweights. Elliott is a pressure fighter that wants to scrap. Deiveson Figueiredo has been on a tear and looks like a serious flyweight contender. He has power, which not many flyweights do. His grappling isn’t the strongest, but he’s managed to escape from grapplers before. Elliot likes to get close, so this will come down to whether Elliott can walk through Figueiredo’s power.
Tim Elliott by decision
HECTOR ALDANA V. MIGUEL BAEZA
Hector Aldana by decision
MARVIN VETTORI V. ANDREW SANCHEZ
It’s crazy the divergence of Marvin Vettori and Israel Adesanya since they fought. Adesanya won the split decision and has sky rocketed to being the middleweight champion. Vettori has fought once, beating Cezar Ferreira by decision. He looked pretty good in that fight. Vettori believes he’s one of the best middleweights and can beat Adesanya in a rematch. He’s a decent all around fighter but he’s tough as hell. He’s ok grinding out an ugly brawl. He’s going to bring the fight to Sanchez.
Sanchez has been in the UFC for a couple of years and is 5-2. He’s fought some tough fighters. He will probably oblige Vettori warning to stand and trade. This has the potential to be a bloody and fun brawl.
Marvin Vettori by decision
J.J. ALDRICH V. LAUREN MUELLER
J.J. Aldrich by decision
MARLON VERA V. ANDRE EWELL
Andre Ewell by decision
FIGHT OF THE NIGHT
JAMES VICK V. NIKO PRICE