Last week UFC Germaine de Randamie v. Aspen Ladd delivered a great night of fights. I think this card looks even better on paper. It should be an enjoyable night. I hope the card delivers like the last couple of weeks have delivered.
MAIN CARD
RAFAEL DOS ANJOS V. LEON EDWARDS
Rafael dos Anjos has become the ultimate gatekeeper of the welterweight division. He is still a great fighter, but it seems if you want a title shot, you have to go through RDA. 2 of the last 3 welterweight champions had to beat RDA first. Granted, Colby Covington’s title fight was against RDA. Kamaru Usman beat RDA to earn the title shot against Tyron Woodley. Those 2 losses were setbacks to RDA’s hopes of being a 2 weight class champion. He followed those losses with a big win to Kevin Lee. It shows RDA improved his wrestling since Colby and Usman were strong wrestlers and used it to dominate RDA. Kevin Lee had no such luck and he is a good wrestler too.
Leon Edwards is coming off a nice win over Gunnar Nelson. It was Edwards’ biggest test in grappling. Edwards was never known for his grappling, and Gunnar is a great grappler. Edwards dominated that fight, but one judge was an idiot and gave Gunnar the decision so Edwards won by split decision. After that fight, Edwards interrupted a Jorge Masvidal interview and tried to get a fight with him. Masvidal didn’t care for the fight and he made history by knocking Askren out in 5 seconds. Edwards has moved on and still gets a top 5 ranked opponent in RDA.
Edwards has quietly climbed the ranks of the welterweight division. He has a big win over Cowboy Cerrone. He uses his intelligence to win fights. He is a very defensive fighter. Since coming to the UFC, he has fought very safely. Trying to win as a point fighter, instead of the knockout artist that the UFC signed. RDA is the most well rounded fighter Edwards has been matched up with. RDA is a great striker and a very good grappler. Their cardio is probably the most even aspect of this fight. RDA is going to pressure Edwards. We’re going to see how the slow paced Edwards handles that pressure.
Rafael dos Anjos by 3rd round TKO*
ALEKSEI OLEINIK V. WALT HARRIS
I love this match up. You have the ultimate submission specialist, Alexey Oleinik (45 submissions) facing off against the knockout artist Walt Harris (all 12 wins by way of KO/TKO). These two used to train together and Walt Harris says he is a completely different fighter from when they used to train together. I take that as, “Oleinik used to destroy me in training.” Oleinik is more well rounded and is truly a great grappler. Harris has insane power, but he doesn’t always fight the smartest fight. Walt Harris will rack up some wins, then get a step up in competition and loses. I can’t imagine this fight getting out of the first round. Don’t look away, at least for the first round.
Aleksei Oleinik by 1st round submission
GREG HARDY V. JUAN ADAMS
Oh boy, another absolute banger. I can’t imagine this fight going past the first round. They are both killers. It is very personal for Juan Adams. Juan Adams witnessed his mom being abused when he was a kid. Enter Greg Hardy, a domestic abuser. Adams wants to end Hardy. They were both on Dana White Contender Series. So the domestic abuse is a big factor, but it can’t be ignored that Hardy has co-main evented since joining the UFC while Adams hasn’t made it off the prelims. Adams is 5-1 with 4 KO/TKO. Hardy is 4-1 with 4 KO/TKO. This fight won’t last long. It’s going to come down to who can find the opening to put the other to sleep.
Juan Adams by 1st round KO
JAMES VICK V. DAN HOOKER
ANOTHER excellent matchup. Sean Shelby worked some magic for this card. These are two guys that always come to fight. James Vick, The Texecutioner (top 10 nickname in the UFC), is a massive light weight. The weight cut is brutal and as he’s progressing in his career, it’s only going to get harder (phrasing).
Vick is riding a two fight losing streak, to Paul Felder and Justin Gaethje. Not the easiest fights, but he could use a win here if he wants to climb the rankings towards a title fight. But let’s be real, at lightweight (probably the most heavily stacked division) James Vick needs a miracle to get a title shot before 2021.
Dan Hooker is a big lightweight himself. He is coming off a tough KO loss to Edson Barboza. That’s not embarrassing, but it was a big setback since he went in that fight on a 5 fight win streak. He is a pressure fighter that will keep moving forward. He claims to have fixed holes in his game. This will be a fun fight.
Dan Hooker by decision
ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ V. FRANCISCO TRINALDO
Another solid lightweight matchup. Alexander Hernandez took a fight against Beneil Dariush on short notice, and knocked Dariush out in a minute. Qute a debut. He followed that up with a dominant win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier. Impressive follow up. Then he got matched up with a rejuvenated Cowboy Cerrone and lost by 2nd round TKO. He is a pressure fighter. He wants to keep moving forward and beat his opponent to submission. Cowboy found holes in his defense and got a finish. Hernandez has power and stamina, but he needs to be careful and not leave himself open for strong counters.
Francisco Trinaldo has been in the UFC forever. He has had some solid winning streaks in the UFC, then loses a fight that could propel him to the top. He has been a gatekeeper of the lightweights. He is coming off an impressive KO of Evan Dunham with a vicious knee to the body. But he is 2-2 in his last four fights. Lost to Kevin Lee, beat Jim Miller, lost to James Vick, beat Evan Dunham. Trinaldo has grown man strength and is an impressive counter puncher. He will be looking for an opening to beat Hernandez like Cowboy. Hernandez is looking to get his best win yet.
Alexander Hernandez by decision
ANDREI ARLOVSKI V. BEN ROTHWELL
This is a battle of heavyweights at the fringe of the being ranked. They are veterans that have been in the UFC for a long time. There’s not much to breakdown here. These two are going to stand in front of each other and try to knock each other out.
Ben Rothwell by 2nd round TKO
PRELIMS
ALEX CACERES V. STEVEN PETERSON
Alex Caceres is one of the most inconsistent fighters in the UFC. He’ll look great, and you think he finally put it all together. Only for him to get destroyed in his next fight. He has holes in his standup game. Steven Peterson is a pressure fighter that is going to keep moving forward and pushing the pace. He is going to try to make Caceres feel uncomfortable and find an opening to beat Caceres up.
Steven Peterson by decision
RAQUEL PENNINGTON V. IRENE ALDANA
Raquel Pennington was on quite a hot streak that led to her getting a title shot against Amanda Nunes. That ended in absolutely devastating fashion. Pennington was brutalized. It took her a little while, but when she came back she met a tough Germaine de Randamie. Pennington did not look good in that fight either. Did the champ break her spirit? Has she found her killer instinct again? Pennington is a decent all around fighter. She usually likes to take it down and dominate the ground game. Aldana has good takedown defense. Aldana is a better boxer, and will try to keep Pennington at a distance and pick her apart.
Irene Aldana by decision
SAM ALVEY V. KLIDSON ABREU
Sam Alvey gets a favorable opponent in Klidson Abreu. Alvey’s chin has been brutally tested in his last two fights, and he failed the test both times. Luckily for Alvey, Abreu’s stand up game is not very good. He is all about grappling. Alvey’s takedown defense has been good in his career. Abreu is looking for his biggest win yet. He is going to try to take the fight down to the ground. That will probably be the deciding factor.
Sam Alvey by decision
ROXANNE MODAFFERI V. JENNIFER MAIA
This is a rematch of an Invicta women’s title fight. Jennifer Maia got the better of Roxanne Modafferi. Modafferi is a grappler and will try to bring the fight to the ground. That is her bread and butter. She was able to beat Antonia Shevchenko while being completely outclassed on the feet. She took it down to the mat and grinded out the win. Maia is a better grappler than Modafferi, and is better standing up too. That is how the first fight went. Maia stuffed takedowns and picked her apart on the feet.
Jennifer Maia by decision
RAY BORG V. GABRIEL SILVA
Has there been a more unlucky fighter than Ray Borg? He was demolished by Demetrious Johnson. Then he had family health issues. Then he lost a decision to a fighter making his UFC debut on short notice. He is going to try to use his wrestling and grind out a win. He faces off with Gabriel Silva, who is making his UFC debut. Silva is a bit of a reckless fighter, which could leave him open to a takedown. Borg would like that very much.
Borg by 3rd round submission
MARIO BAUTISTA V. JIN SOO SON
This is a match up of a grappler, Mario Bautista, vs. a striker, Jin Soo Son. It should be an interesting fight between two guys making their second walk to the octagon. Both of them took their first fights on short notice. Son is an aggressive striker and will push forward. Bautista is going to try to grapple and get a submission win.
Jin Soo Son by decision
DOMINGO PILARTE V. FELIPE COLARES
This is a matchup of two grapplers. Domingo Pilarte is a monster bantamweight, over 6 feet tall. He has yet to put his stand up game together, so his height and reach advantage are not as helpful as they should be. Felipe Colares is a better grappler. This one will be a close fight.
Domingo Pilarte by 2nd round submission
FIGHT OF THE NIGHT
JAMES VICK V. DAN HOOKER
*I haven’t correctly predicted an RDA fight since his epic win over Anthony Pettis